330 Days Since...

Snow for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky next week?  It may be possible.

Including today, it has been 330 days (January 12, 2012) since the last measurable snow in most of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky (the “Heartland”) and there is a chance that streak could end Tuesday.

I mentioned earlier this week that the computer models were hinting at a measurable snow coming for parts of the Midwest next week.  I also mentioned that the likelihood wasn’t great as the computer models had been “out to lunch” in the long range.  The prospects of the measurable snow for St. Louis, Champaign, Illinois and Indianapolis are pretty much non-existent at this point.

The morning run of the European Agency’s computer model follows suit taking away snow chances for the above mentioned locations.  However, the model is also advertising an area of low pressure passing to the south of western Kentucky could have enough moisture north of the low and enough cold air coming in from the north to create snow for parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois.

Moisture doesn’t appear to be too great at this point.  But just eyeballing what the model is suggesting, perhaps 1”-2”.

At this point, I wouldn’t get too excited.  This isn’t the forecast, it’s just a small blip.  Doesn’t even register a 1 on my “Freak Out Meter”.


TORNADOES IN THE WINTER:

Yes, they are possible and happen more often than you think in the “Heartland”.  The National Weather Service in Paducah has put together a nice page on their website highlighting tornado statistics and documenting how they can and do occur in the winter and also late at night.

Take a look at the top 4 times of day that tornadoes occur.

Tornadoes: Time of Day (1996-2011)
TIME	PERCENTAGE OF TORNADOES
6pm – 9pm	30%
3pm – 6pm	27%
9pm – Midnight	15%
Midnight – 3am	8%

It is just a good reminder that while we are in search for snow severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are still possible.

This in mind, do you know what makes a great Christmas gift?  A NOAA Weather Radio.  If you know someone that would never go out and buy one for themself, a radio is a perfect.  If turned on, it is a good way to be alerted to severe weather watches and warnings overnight while sleeping.

Looking Back at Meteorological Fall 2012

Meteorologists break the year up to in four equal segments for spring, summer, fall and winter.  This makes it easier when looking at seasons.

(Click to see larger version.)

Meteorological Seasons:

• Spring – March 1 – May 31
• Summer – June 1 – August 31
• Fall – September 1 – November 30
• Winter – December 1 – February 28/29

METEOROLOGICAL FALL 2012

Most of 2012 has gone in to the books above normal, however Meteorological Fall bucked the trend.  In the Midwest, fall went in to the books below normal.

 

Below is a breakdown of the monthly temperatures for Cape Girardeau, Carbondale, Indianapolis and St. Louis.
  

CITY	SEPTEMBER	OCTOBER	NOVEMBER
Cape Girardeau	-0.6°	-1.9°	-1.9°
Carbondale	-0.6°	-2.3°	-2.4°
Indianapolis	-1.7°	-2.3°	-2.2°
St. Louis	-1.0°	-1.9°	-0.8°

Interestingly, for all four cities listed above, the last time any of the cities had three consecutive months below normal was December 2009, January 2010 and February 2010.

Below is a breakdown of the number of days each month below normal.

 

METEOROLOGICAL FALL 2012
CITY	SEPTEMBER	OCTOBER	NOVEMBER	TOTAL
Cape Girardeau	14	18	18	50 (55% of days)
Indianapolis	17	20	18	55 (60% of days)
St. Louis	15	19	18	52 (57% of days)

As you can see, the majority of days during the three months were below normal.

On the Hunt for Winter

Where have you been?

That is a two part question.  It could be asked about winter/snow and could also be asked to me in regards to my blog.  Let me answer the second one first.

There hasn’t been much to talk about in the way of weather lately.  Plus, to be honest, it is easier to make quick updates via twitter than it is to write a blog.  So… if you follow me on twitter you’ve probably been getting lots of updates (maybe too much?).

Now about winter and snow… So far neither have shown up.  To start December, the Midwest has been WAY above normal.

DECEMBER
CITY	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Cape Girardeau	+20.5°
Carbondale	+20.2°
Indianapolis	+18.5°
St. Louis	+24.8°

Temperatures are expected to stay above normal through much of the upcoming week.

Over the last month computer models have been doing a decent job handling weather systems 1-6 days out.  Once you get beyond day 6, all bets are off.  The trend from NOAA’s global forecast model, the GFS, has been to position a big storm 8-10 days out in the Midwest.  So far, it hasn’t verified well.

I don’t know about you, but I am definitely ready for a couple of snow storms.  If you’ve read my blog for any length of time, you can probably tell I enjoy snow storms.  That being the case, let’s take a look at what this morning’s GFS is showing.

(Click image to see larger version.)

Yeah, that big miss of a storm in the Midwest in the above graphic is what it is showing.  Can you guess the time frame?  It is 8-days out.  The image above is specifically for 6am CT Tuesday, December 11.  It brings a decent amount of snow to central and eastern Missouri Tuesday, then takes it northeast through north-central Illinois and north-central Indiana.  It would also bring some MUCH needed rain to the Ohio and Mississippi valleys.  But as I said earlier, this is the time frame the model has been horrendous.  In other words, don’t hold your breath just yet.

But since I’m wanting snow, let’s do a little wish-casting and see how much snow the model could be suggesting.  Before I go any further, this is in no means a forecast and especially MY forecast.  This is just looking at how much moisture the model is suggesting and turning it in to all snow at a very basic ration of 10:1.

 

In the table below you will find the quantitative precipitation forecast (fancy term for how much there liquid there would be if it were all rain) by the computer model by specific city and then the snow produced with a 10 to 1 ratio.

CITY	QPF	SNOW (10:1)
Champaign, Il	0.60”	6”
Columbia, Mo	0.83”	8.3”
Farmington, Mo	0.10”	1”
Indianapolis	0.48”	4.8”
St. Louis	0.77”	7.7”

As you can see, some locations could get some decent snow.  Again, don’t get excited in reality, but it is something you can wish for if you’d like snow.  As I like to say… Stay tuned.

October Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook includes southern Illinois. western Kentucky, southeast Missouri and St. Louis metro area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather through 7am Thursday.


Main threat appears to be damaging winds followed by large hail. Also, there is an enhanced threat for a tornado in MO bootheel.

Storms will likely move through during the evening hours.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter for the latest watches/warnings and for additional updates.

- Posted from my iPhone

Digging through the Heat

I’ve been doing some digging in the historical weather numbers and so has some of the National Weather Service offices across the Midwest.

Interesting Weather Tidbits:

CAPE GIRARDEAU:

• Cape Girardeau has officially had 1.37” of rain for the month of June.  This is 1.75” below average for the month.  For the year, Cape Girardeau is 12.72” below normal.
• In 2011, Cape Girardeau had 42.87" of rain from January 1 - June 30.  That is 31.37" more than 2012.
• The last time Cape Girardeau had an above normal month (rainfall) was December 2011.
• As of June 26, Cape Girardeau is 0.6° below average for the month of June.
• The hottest temperature in 2011 was 103° (August).
• The hottest temperature from 1960 to present is 105° (July 15, 1980, July 12, 1980, July 14, 1966, July 12, 1966, August 4, 1964).

CARBONDALE, IL (sewage plant):

• The hottest temperature from 1898 to present is 113° (August 9, 1930).

DONIPHAN, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1904 to present is 114° (August 8, 1934).

JACKSON, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1893 to present is 112° (July 24, 1934).

INDIANAPOLIS:

• Indianapolis has officially recorded 0.05” of rain for June.  As of June 27, only 5 out of the last 48 days  have had measurable rain.
• Indianapolis has set a new record for longest dry period in June.  It is the longest since 1983.
• June 2012 will go in the record books as the driest month in history in Indianapolis.
• All time record high temperature for June in Indianapolis is 102°.  This record was established in 1954 and 1988.

NEW MADRID, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1963 to present is 107° (August 4, 1964).

PADUCAH:

• Paducah, Kentucky has only recorded 0.90” officially for the month of June 2012.  This is 1.78” below normal for the month.  For the year, Paducah is 12.31” below normal.
• The hottest temperature from 1937 to present is 108° (July 17, 1942).

POPLAR BLUFF:

• Poplar Bluff has officially recorded 1.43” of rain in June.  For the year, Poplar Bluff is 9.08” below normal.
• The hottest temperature from 1893 to present is 112° (August 9, 1930, July 23, 1901, July 22, 1901, July 12, 1901).

ST. LOUIS:

• It has been 58 years since St. Louis has had three consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures. (1954)
• All time record high temperature for month of June in St. Louis is 105°.  This record was established in 1936 and 1952.
• Highest temperature ever recorded at St. Louis was 115° July 12, 1954 and July 14, 1954.

10 Consecutive Days

There are some amazing numbers coming from the overnight runs of the computer models.  Bottom line, it’s going to be HOT and DRY for the foreseeable future.

As I mentioned yesterday, rain isn’t going to happen anytime soon.  Even if we were to get a little bit of rain, it wouldn’t come close to putting a dent in to the drought.  But since I know a lot of you want to know whether or not we’ve got rain coming, let’s get this out of the way.

To start with I took a look at rainfall numbers from two computer models.  To be honest, NOAA’s global forecast model is so far out in left field lately, it has left the stadium.  This turns me to the European forecast agency’s computer model, which has been doing very well as of late.

These numbers may be troubling and aren’t for the week of heart of you are in need of rain.

Rainfall through July 3

• Cape Girardeau:  0.00”
• Indianapolis:  0.07”
• Paducah:  0.00”
• Poplar Bluff:  0.00”
• St. Louis:  0.00”

More pressing is going to be the excessive heat.  Yesterday, I first mentioned on Twitter that the European computer model was suggesting we could see seven consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures in east/southeast Missouri.  Last night’s run has upped the ante.  It is now suggesting that we could see ten consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures beginning Thursday.  Yes, 10!  That would take us from Thursday, June 28 to Saturday, July 7 with daily high temperatures in the triple digits.

I have averaged what two computer models are suggesting for temperatures Thursday/Friday across select locations.

• Cape Girardeau: 104°/109°
• Indianapolis: 101°/97°
• Paducah: 104°/109°
• Poplar Bluff: 104°/107°
• St. Louis: 105°/106°

The one saving grace to oppressive heat is that it appears temperatures will be able to drop quite a bit overnight.  Meaning, temperatures will be able to fall off to the 50°s, 60° and 70°s.  Often times, when we have extremely high temperatures, there is never a “cooling off” period overnight as temperatures will only drop to the upper 70°s and 80°s.

I mentioned this yesterday but it is worthwhile mentioning again.  Heat is the biggest weather killer.  Hundreds die from heat each year.  Unfortunately, there has already been someone killed from the heat.  Let’s try not to have any more people die from the heat.  If you have air conditioning, turn it on.  I know many people do not want to spend the money running their air conditioning but this really could be a matter of life or death.

Doing the Wave

There are fascinating numbers coming out from the computer models this morning.  I say "fascinating" from a meteorological standpoint.

If you are needing rain, don't expect much, if any at all, over the next seven days.  Here is a break down of seven-day rainfall averages taken from two computer models for various locations across the Midwest.

• Cape Girardeau: 0.02"
• Paducah: 0.00"
• Poplar Bluff: 0.01"
• St. Louis: 0.03"

As you can see, there isn't much coming.  A lot of people have been asking me "When is it going to rain?".  The bigger question is probably "When is it going to rain to enough to help with the soil conditions?".  I would like to say "There's a chance coming.", but I don't want to give people a false sense of hope at this point.  The realistic answer is "Not anytime soon."

At this point, I think it is time for people to stop concerning themselves with the lack of rain and start thinking about the upcoming temperatures.

Later this week we are going to be moving in to a significant heat wave for the next week.  Temperatures will likely pass the 100° mark for much of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.  In the short term, it appears that Friday will be the hottest day for parts of the region.  (Computer models are indicating Thursday will be hotter for Indianapolis.)  Here is a breakdown of various locations and the 2-meter temperature average between two computer models.

• Cape Girardeau: 108°
• Indianapolis: 102° (Thursday)
• Paducah: 108°
• Poplar Bluff: 106°
• St. Louis: 106°

Keep in mind, the above temperatures are straight from the computer models.  They are not the actual forecast for the specific locations.  The one thing that will slightly help is that the humidity shouldn't be "terribly bad".  Don't get me wrong, it WILL be humid and heat indices will likely approach 110°-112°.

A lot of people don't realize this, but heat is the #1 weather killer.  Heat waves have been known to kill hundreds a year across the planet.

The first day or two of high temperatures isn't usually a problem, it is the cumulative heat that can be most dangerous.  Meaning that the last several days of a heat wave that usually brings problems for people.  That being the case, be sure to check on family, friends, neighbors and loved ones, especially if they do not have air conditioning or if they do not like to run the AC.

The National Weather Service office in Paducah, KY has put together a good list of safety tips for battling the heat.

Outdoor Warning Sirens

I have been having an interesting discussion about outdoor warning sirens on Facebook and wanted to move it/include my blog readers.

What is sparking this conversation?  I have had a strong opinion about outdoor weather warning sirens for many years.  I feel they are dangerous to people in a community.  They give people a false sense of security and rely on them too much.

Tragically, a tornado hit the village of Diehlstadt in southeast Missouri Monday, June 4.  Three people were killed when their mobile home was overturned.  Because of the event, several people in Diehlstadt are working to have an outdoor warning siren installed.  KFVS/Heartland News reported on the story of a woman in Diehlstadt working to have a warning siren installed.

Since the tornado occurred in the KFVS viewing area, where I used to work, there has been a lot of good conversation going on my Facebook page.

Something many people don't know about outdoor weather warning sirens. Warning sirens are only designed to cover 1-square mile. A typical warning siren costs approximately $30,000 to install. That does not include annual maintenance fees, $2,500 (total) for 5 years.

Weather warning sirens are an antiquated technology dating back to the civil defense system of the 1940's.  The system was initially designed to warn of air raids during World War II.  They were then adapted to warn of nuclear attack and eventually used for warning of storms.

Lets look at a couple of examples...

• The city of Cape Girardeau has approximately 24 square miles. That would take 24 warning sirens to cover the city. Keep in mind, that is to cover the city outdoor.s Sirens are not designed or meant to be heard if you are indoors. If you break down the number of people in Cape Girardeau (37,941 according to 2010 Census) that equates to 1,580 people per square mile. I would propose a city purchase weather radios for each household within that square mile. A Midland Weather radio would cost approx $26 wholesale (I imagine they could get a bulk rate discount and I know there are cheaper alternatives available). Electric companies say they figured 3-4 people per "customer". That means approximately 530 radios would need to be purchased per square mile. That would cost $13,780 (high end) and warn people indoors and in a much more timely manner. Plus, it would save the city $16,220 (54%).

• In the case of Diehlstadt, according to the 2000 Census there were 61 households within the village. To provide every household with a weather radio would cost approximately $1,600. If you install an outdoor warning siren, it will cost approximately $30,000. Weather radios would provide savings of 94% to the village/county.

I contend that with weather radios, you can be notified several minutes ahead of warning sirens. The process of a warning siren being sounded is the NWS sends a warning. The warning is read by the dispatcher (if they aren't on the phone/radio). The warning is read over the radio. The dispatcher presses the button to sound the siren. That can take several minutes and the siren doesn't tell you why it is being sounded.

The information you get via weather radio, is the exact same information the tv station, radio station and dispatcher is getting and at the same time. Along with the alert, the radio also speaks the text of the warning so you know why it is going off.

I should probably add that I am not being compensated by Midland Radio or any other manufacturer of NOAA weather radios for the above comments.

What are your thoughts?  Join in the conversation by leaving comments to this post.