Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Cold Air Building

It is the time of year when I like to start looking further out in the computer models. What am I looking for? I'm looking for cold air marching south through Canada and I am also looking for storms taking shape that can interact with the cold air. When the two play together, "fun things" develop.

For the last couple of days NOAA's Global Forecast model (GFS) has been advertising some cold air building and marching south out of Canada for mid-November. The latest run of the GFS (12z) continues to hint at the cold air coming.

Right now it looks like the cold air would come down in two shots. The first would arrive in the Midwest/Ohio River Valley sometime around November 13/14.

The second shot, and most likely the colder of the two, would arrive in around November 16/17. (The image above depicts the morning of November 16.) If the above image were to hold true, then I might have to use the "s" word for the first time this season. Yes, snow.

I should also add that the European Forecast Agency's computer model is also hinting at a shot of colder air coming down around November 12. At this point, it is splitting hairs between the two models. However, it is interesting that both models are hinting at something similar around the same time.

Don't get too excited just yet. This is a LONG way out in the computer models. There is a likely climatological bias in the models trying to bring in cold air to keep in mind. If I were a betting person, I would say the above scenario is not likely to happen this far in advance. However, it is something to keep an eye on. Especially if you enjoy colder weather.

Stay tuned...

1 comment:

Matt said...

Missouri is due from a major snowstorm! It has been years since we have had a good sized one here.