Thursday, January 12, 2012

Wednesday Night Update

Just getting a chance to look over the data from the evening computer model runs. A couple of the models are trying to back off (a little) on the moisture available to crank out snow. Could this impact snow amounts? Good question.

I continue to think that snow to liquid ratios should be above "normal" due to the strength of the cold air. I think we could see anywhere from a 15 to 1 ratio to as much as a 19 to 1 ratio.

Lets look at some of the numbers from the models. First, here is the North American forecast model, the NAM.

CITY: H20 | SNOW RANGE

  • Cape Girardeau: 0.07" | 0.9" - 1.2"
  • Columbus (IN): 0.09" | 1.3" - 1.6"
  • Chicago: 0.50" | 7.5" - 9"
  • Indianapolis: 0.12" | 1.8" - 2.2"
  • St. Louis: 0.17" | 2.4" - 3.1"
Next, we take a look at NOAA's global forecast model, the GFS.

CITY: H20 | SNOW RANGE
  • Cape Girardeau: 0.10" | 1.4" - 1.8"
  • Columbus (IN): 0.20" | 3" - 3.6"
  • Chicago: 0.46" | 7.3" - 8.3"
  • Indianapolis: 0.22" | 3.3" - 4.0"
  • St. Louis: 0.15" | 2.25" - 2.6"
Now lets take a look at the European forecast agency's model.

CITY: H20 | SNOW RANGE
  • Cape Girardeau: 0.08" | 1.1" - 1.3"
  • Columbus (IN): 0.11" | 1.6" - 2"
  • Chicago: 0.58" | 9.2" - 11"
  • Indianapolis: 0.13" | 1.8" - 2.3"
  • St. Louis: 0.13" | 1.8" - 2.2"
In almost all cases, the numbers dropped slightly from earlier runs. However, that doesn't necessarily mean we are going to get less.

I am going to stay with what I was saying earlier today. The breakdown goes something like this...
  • Cape Girardeau: 0.75" - 1.5"
  • Columbus (IN): 1" - 2"
  • Chicago: 7" - 9"
  • Indianapolis: 2" - 4" (2" to 3" through the city. 3" to 4" on the northside near Carmel and Westfield.)
  • St. Louis: 2" - 3"
As for timing... Check out my post from earlier today for the details on when the snow arrives.

My "Freak-Out-Meter" holds pretty much the same as earlier. For places like Cape Girardeau, St. Louis, Columbus (IN) it is a 3 out of 10. For Indianapolis it is a 4 out of 10 and in Chicago it is a 6 out of 10.

None the less temperatures will be much colder Thursday and Friday and winds will be gusty out of the west and northwest.

Be sure to leave your snowfall amounts in the comments section of this blog post.

3 comments:

I must say, if Cape only gets .75" of snow there has been much to do about 'not much.' It is only a bit more than a dusting in my opinion. However, I suppose we must wait to see what actually falls to the ground and see how it impacts the town and schools. Let the snow begin!

Curious about the 2nd round this afternoon....what is your take?

I am still holding with my forecast from last night. Think it still looks intact.

Snow chances will continue until the upper-level low passes through. At 12pm CT, the upper-level low was located in central Missouri.

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More