The next round of computer model data is coming in this morning and the models are keeping the upward trend. Last night I mentioned it would be interesting to see how this morning’s runs handle the moisture. Do they take it up, keep it the same or drop it?
Let’s take a look at the breakdown of how much water the models are suggesting will be available for snow production.
CITY: GFS H2O | CHANGE FROM 0z RUN
- Cape Girardeau: 0.10” | +0.03”
- Indianapolis: 0.22” | +0.06”
- St. Louis: 0.16” | +0.03”
With the amount of cold air coming in with the cold front, I am looking for snow to rain ratios of 14 to 1 or as high as 17 to 1. Going strictly from the GFS model that would put down:
- Cape Girardeau: ¾” to 1.5” of snow
- Indianapolis: 3”-4” of snow
- St. Louis: 2”-3” of snow
Timing: The snow should begin to fall in St. Louis during the pre-dawn hours (2am-4am CT), in Cape Girardeau during pre-dawn hours (5am-7am CT) and in Indianapolis by early afternoon (12pm-3pm ET).
As for my “Freak-Out-Meter”… I am going to keep it at a 3 out of 10 for St. Louis and Cape Girardeau and move it to a 4 out of 10 for Indianapolis. The “Freak-Out-Meter” is hard to score because there are two ways to do it. I could score it on how people’s reaction will be or how the reaction should be. I try to score it to how people’s reaction should be.
Remember you can follow me for more timely updates via Twitter @johndissauer and via my Facebook page.
-Posted from my iPhone