Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Numbers Going Up?

New data is streaming in as I type tonight. Interesting to note that on first look, it appears NOAA's global forecast model is coming in slightly wetter.

The time frame I am talking about is still Thursday in to Friday morning for parts of the Midwest.

A strong surge of cold air will blow in behind a cold front passing the Midwest Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Th cold air will work very efficiently at changing the moisture to snow.

Earlier today I showed you what the GFS computer model was suggesting for moisture in Cape Girardeau (0.02"), Indianapolis (0.15") and St. Louis (0.07"). As of the time I am writing this, data is only available through Friday evening.

Here's a look at what the new run of the GFS is showing. Again, this is how much moisture is available, not snow.

  • Cape Girardeau - 0.07"
  • Indianapolis - 0.16"
  • St. Louis - 0.13"
Comparing that to this morning's numbers you can see the model is starting to increase the amounts.

The strength of the cold air is impressive. I think this could generate a 14:1 to 16:1 snow with a few locations seeing higher ratios. This would equate to around 1" in Cape Girardeau, 1.5" to 2.5" in Indianapolis and 1" to 2.5" in St. Louis. There could be a few locations upwards of 3" around central Indiana (likely north of Indianapolis).

It will be interesting to see what Wednesday morning's computer models are showing to see if they continue the trend of increasing the moisture, keeping it the same as tonight's runs or decreasing the moisture.

I am going to slightly increase the "Freak-Out-Meter" to a 3 out of 10. It won't be bad, but for some, this will be the first measurable snow of the season.

Stay tuned...

1 comments:

so what you're saying is that if I don't go get bread and milk TODAY it will be sold out by tomorrow? ;) thanks John, glad you are still doing our weather here in SE MO!

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