Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Still looking like an accumulating snow for much of the Midwest. As is usually the case, some will get much more than others. Totals could range from a dusting to as much as 10”.

In my last post I mentioned that I was waiting for the European forecast agency’s computer model to come in. The data is in and it is keeping in line with the GFS model.

Here is a breakdown of the amount of liquid is available to produce snow according to the European model. I am still looking at ratios generally being around 14:1 to 16:1. Some places could be as high as 18:1.

CITY: EURO LIQUID | SNOW RANGE USING ABOVE RATIOS

  • Cape Girardeau, MO: 0.08” | 1.1” - 1.3”
  • Carbondale, IL: 0.08” | 1.1” – 1.3”
  • Champaign, IL: 0.25” | 3.5” - 4.25”
  • Chicago, IL: 0.52” | 8.3” – 9.4”
  • Columbus, IN: 0.11” | 1.5” – 1.9”
  • Harrisburg, IL: 0.08” | 1.1” – 1.3”
  • Indianapolis, IN: 0.18” | 2.7” – 3”
  • Mt. Vernon, IL: 0.11” | 1.5” – 1.8”
  • Paducah, KY: 0.09” | 1.2” – 1.4”
  • Poplar Bluff, MO: 0.03” | 0.4” – 0.5”
Those are a lot of numbers to dissect, but you can see that the range could be from a dusting to 10”+.

Here’s a couple of graphical maps indicating snowfall amounts from two computer models, the North American Model (NAM) and the global forecast model (GFS).

NAM:



GFS:


I want to stress that this isn’t my final forecast as to how much snow will fall. The numbers listed/represented above come straight from a computer model. I am still going with the numbers I had mentioned earlier (Cape Girardeau: 0.75" - 1.5" | Indianapolis: 2"-4" | St. Louis: 2"-3") but I will likely be putting out a more detailed snow forecast later this evening.

Winter Weather Advisories are now posted for much of central Indiana and central/northern Illinois. Remember you can get the latest winter advisories, warnings and watches on my blog by clicking on the “Warnings & Watches” tab at the top of the page.

You can also get the latest by following me on Twitter as I'll be posting updates through the evening and tomorrow. Follow @johndissauer.


- Posted from my iPhone

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