Wednesday, March 18, 2020

7:30pm Update: Latest look at timing of tornado threat

Not much has changed in thinking for Thursday in regards to severe thunderstorms.

This is my attempt at giving some type of timeline for the evolution of storms throughout Thursday in to Friday morning.  The timing is highly subject to change as things begin to develop.

The main threat for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky will be Thursday evening.  The main threat for central Indiana will be Thursday evening through early Friday morning.

One thing to note.  A warm front will be passing through central Indiana during the day.  Much of the morning will be spent on the "cool" side of the front.  Once the front passes, temperatures will quickly climb in to the middle and upper 60°s.  Humidity will begin to increase as southerly winds increase (gusting to 40 mph) bringing in moisture.

Thunderstorms may develop on the north side of the warm front late morning/early afternoon.  Some of these will have the potential of producing large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Computer models suggest damaging winds could be produced as storms roll through central Indiana Thursday night into Friday morning.  Data also suggests the potential for isolated power outages.

Power outage potential through Friday morning.
Due to the timing of storms, and the potential for power outages, make sure your NOAA weather radios have working batteries in case warnings are issued.

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