The Storm Prediction Center still has most of the KFVS viewing area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather and parts of the area in the "Moderate Risk" area. The outlook runs from now through 6am Friday.
Day 1 Outlook
A warm front to our south is forecast to drift a little further north during the afternoon and evening. The warm front's northward progression will partially depend on the track of the surface low.
At last check, it appears that the surface low will move overhead of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and southern Illinois. If this happens, warmer air will begin to surge north at some point.
I am thinking the best chance for severe thunderstorms would be between 7pm and 11pm this evening. As far where could the severe weather be located in the KFVS viewing area? I'm thinking somewhere along and south of a line from approximately Neelyville, Missouri to Sikeston, Missouri to Mayfield, Kentucky (aka extreme southern parts of western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel plus)
The main threat from the storms will be damaging wind and large hail. There is also a chance for a couple of isolated tornadoes.
Again, a lot of this is dependent on the warm front lifting north in to the area and the surface low tracking a little north. If the low stay south of the area, we won't see any severe thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall is a good possibility regardless of the surface low track. Rainfall amounts could range from 1" to 4".