A cold front is stalling out around the Midwest. This front will act as a lifting mechanism to help generate showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days.
You might have noticed the jump in temperatures today compared with Monday. The front has warm front has lifted north and we are now in the "warm sector". Temperatures at 1:00pm CT range from 73° in Harrsiburg, Il to 79° in Poplar Bluff, Mo.
The humidity has also jumped. Dew points have climbed in to the middle to upper 60°'s across the KFVS viewing area.
With moisture in place (dew points), warmer temperatures, a lifting mechanism (cold front), and some upper level energy, showers and thunderstorms could develop. I think today's will be more of a hit/miss variety. In fact, the computer models are hinting and shower/thunderstorm development to our northeast and to our southwest.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is indicating we should keep an eye out for severe weather. They have southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky in their Day 1 Outlook "Slight Risk" area for severe weather.
The Day 1 Outlook covers from now until 7am CT Wednesday.
Here is a look at the probability forecast from SPC for the type of severe threats.
I am pretty sure we won't be seeing a severe weather outbreak around here, but it isn't out of the question we could get a "hailer" or two this evening/tonight.
On the "FREAK OUT" scale (1-nothing to worry about to 10-run for your lives!!!) I would put this on the around a 2.
Side Note: My new "FREAK OUT" scale is something new. Have a better name for it? Leave your ideas in my comments section.