Saturday, May 1, 2010

4:00pm Weather Update

The Storm Prediction Center has published their Day 1 Outlook. They have shifted the "High Risk" area a little to the north and northwest. It now includes more of southeast Missouri. The remainder of the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northwest Tennessee, and western Kentucky) is in a "Moderate Risk".

The Day 1 Outlook covers the time period from now through 7am CT Sunday.

Here is a look at the probabilities for specific weather type:




The tornado probability forecast is a little concerning. The 30% area covers much of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. What the 30% area means is that there is a 30% chance that 25 miles within any given point could see a tornado. The blue hashed area means that there is at least a 10% chance of a strong tornado (EF2-EF5).

If you have been outside you might have noticed the sun coming out from behind the clouds. Sunshine today is not a good thing as it will quickly aid in destabilizing the atmosphere.

Currently there aren't any watches up for any of the KFVS viewing area, but that could change in the next couple of hours. The trigger for the storms later today is just moving through eastern Texas in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It should slide northeast through Arkansas and spark storms by evening.

I should note that I just heard The Weather Channels' Dr. Greg Forbes just announce that he has put a Tor:Con of 7/10 for southern Missouri and eastern Arkansas. That basically means that he thinks there is a 7 out of 10 chance a tornado will touchdown within 50 miles of any given point in that area.

I don't mean to scare people by putting up all of these graphics, however, I do think it is important for you to know what the risks are.


Bryan said...

I was wondering, I live in Carter county, MO. Is the worst of it still supposed to be more SE toward the bootheel?

Anonymous said...

I sure hope so. I live in van buren, mo and those storms last night really had me worried. to know that we are in a high risk really makes me scared.