Sunday Severe Weather Outbreak - UPDATE

Wanted to give a quick update concerning what some of the latest computer model runs are showing.  I was able to run in to the station and grab off a couple of "cleaner" images of what the high resolution 4km RPM is suggesting for Sunday's weather in the Midwest.

First of all, the Storm Prediction Center is still indicating there is a threat for severe weather across much of the Midwest Wednesday.  Here is the latest outlook from the SPC.

Orange indicates a "Moderate Risk".  Yellow indicates a "Slight Risk".  As you can see from the map above, many large metropolitan areas are included in the "Moderate Risk".

The next couple images are going to be from the afternoon (18z) run of the RPM computer model.  What you are seeing is what the model is predicting the radar will look like along with satellite imagery.  The time on the graphic is shown in Mountain Time.  Add two hours for Eastern and one hour for Central.

As I mentioned in my previous blog post, there will likely be a few showers and thunderstorms developing overnight tonight in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and southern Indiana.  The above image is for 2am MT or 4am ET.  Notice it does have a cluster of strong thunderstorms over southern Indiana.  This could produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds.

Next, we are looking at 11am MT or 1pm ET.

You can see that the model suggests the cluster of storms in Indiana have moved off to the east/southeast.  But now turn your attention back to the west from northern Illinois through the St. Louis metro and down through southern Missouri.  This is the list of storms I think will eventually become the "main show" for Sunday.

Initially the model suggests the line will get started with individual cells before eventually coming together as a line.

Now we are looking at 2pm MT or 4pm ET.  Notice the line is maturing and moving east going from southern Michigan through western Indiana through southern Illinois to southeast Missouri.  As I expected, the highest energy for the overall system will be a little further north.  Notice how much more organized the storms look in north central/west central Indiana versus southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.

Here is a closer look at central Indiana.  While the time stamp says 3pm MT it is actually 2pm MT or 4pm ET (my mistake).

At this point the storms are just west of Fort Wayne and moving through Lafayette and Terre Haute.  I still think a 5pm-8pm time frame is looking realistic for the Indianapolis metro area.  As for other timings, check out my previous blog.

I am in the process of uploading a couple of animated videos that will give you a better idea of what to expect from the RPM for tomorrow.

Also, my Freak-Out-Meter stays the same as I posted in my previous blog post.

Severe Storms Sunday

The threat for severe weather Sunday continues for parts of the Mississippi River Valley and the Ohio River Valley.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio in a "Moderate Risk" for severe storms.  They have also placed parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee in a "Slight Risk".  The outlook covers the time from 7am ET Sunday through 7am ET Monday.

The population bases within the different risks are pretty high.  Seventy-six and a half million people live within the risk area.  A little over 39-million people live within the "Moderate Risk" and another 37-million live within the "Slight Risk".

Hopefully, people aren't taken by surprise with the potential for severe weather.  November is not an unusual time for severe weather.  In fact, it is the height of the secondary severe weather season for Ohio River/Mississippi River Valleys.

Here is a look at the latest information from the RPM 4km high resolution computer model.

It suggests a line of storms begins to develop and quickly strengthen around 11am Sunday in northwest Illinois.  If this holds true, this could start to bring the line in to the St. Louis metro area shortly before noon.  It would also bring a line of storms near the Chicago metro area around noon.  The model also suggests the line of storms reaching central Indiana between 5pm and 8pm.

IF a line develops further south in to Missouri, the model is suggesting it could start to arrive in southeast Missouri around 12pm-1pm.  The line would continue to move east arriving at the Mississippi River (in southeast Missouri) around 2pm-3pm.

The line mentioned above is likely a secondary line that will develop ahead of a cold front.  Well ahead of the front there could be isolated to scattered thunderstorms later Saturday night through early Sunday morning (pre-dawn) in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.  There is enough instability to generate a few strong thunderstorms but I think the "main show" will be the secondary line.

There appears to be plenty of instability within the atmosphere to get thunderstorms going.  Here is a look at the CAPE's (a form of instability forecasters look at) from this morning's run of the North American Model at 12pm CT.

CAPES are anywhere between 500 and 1000+ joules/kg for anywhere from Michigan down through Arkansas.

Also, if you step up to around 30,000 feet, there will be tremendous amounts of lift taking place due to divergence in the jet stream starting Sunday morning for areas west and southwest of St. Louis.  Then by late morning a powerhouse jet streak will start to nose in to central Illinois and western Indiana.  Winds will be moving along at 145mph out of the west at 30,000 feet.

Further down the atmospheric column winds will be coming out of the southwest at 55-70 mph just 5,000 feet above the ground.  This being the case, there will be lots of dynamic energy along with turning of the winds throughout the column.  Any thunderstorms that get going can start turning quickly.

I want you to note the probabilities put out by the Storm Prediction Center.

Notice the large 45% probability through the Midwest.  That doesn't mean there is a 45% chance of severe storms for that entire area, however it means that there is a 45% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any point within that area.

You may also notice the hatched area.  That indicates an area where there is a 10% or greater probability
of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

So what are the main threats?  Right now, it appears that the biggest threat from thunderstorms will be strong, damaging winds.  Also, I think there is a decent tornado threat with this setup.  Especially the further north you go.  For right now, lets say north of I-64 in Illinois in to Indiana.  That means there will be a threat for tornadoes in central/northern Illinois, most of Indiana, southern Michigan and perhaps Ohio.

Since this is a time of year when people aren't thinking about severe weather, make sure you have fresh batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio.  Go over your action place with your family.  What are you going to do/where are you going to go if a Tornado Warning or a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued?

FREAK-OUT-METER

Finally, a lot of you ask about my "Freak-Out-Meter".  What is the meter?  It is basically a way for me to try to indicate how much I am concerned about the storm.  Hopefully, for some of you that get freaked out easily from weather it is a way to calm your nerves but also a way for you to see how big of a deal this is.  Keep in mind, this is on a scale from 0-10 with zero meaning I'm not concerned to a 10 meaning I'm beyond concerned.

Central Indiana: 6
Southern Indiana: 5
Northern Illinois: 6
Central Illinois: 5
Southern Illinois: 4
Northern Kentucky: 4
Western Kentucky: 4
Southeast Missouri: 4
St. Louis Metro: 4

Super Typhoon Haiyan

You may hear about a super typhoon on the news tonight and tomorrow.  In fact, you may hear about a super typhoon in the news for quite some time.  The super typhoon I am referring to is Haiyan.  The reason you may hear about the storm for a while is because of the damage this storm will likely cause to southeast Asia.

Here is a visible satellite image of Super Typhoon Hiayan prior to landfall in the Philippines from Thursday afternoon.

The storm is very impressive.  Here are a few factoids about the storm.

• Super Typhoon Haiyan had 195 mph sustained winds with gusts to 235 mph prior to Philippines landfall.
• From a NOAA employeee: Super Typhoon Haiyan at 195mph (sustained winds) and wind gusts to 235mph is worse than Hurricane Andrew, on par with Hurricane Mitch and much worse than Hurricane Katrina.
• Satellite estimates of Super Typhoon Haiyan's central barometric pressure is 25.34" (or 858mb).  If true, this would make the storm the earth's most intense on record.
• Wave heights have been measured at 44-50 feet.
• The same area being hit by the super typhoon experienced a 7.1-magnitude earthquake last month, killing 222 people.

The last forecast track I saw from the U.S. Navy suggests the storm will move back out over the South China Sea and the storm will make a second landfall in Vietnam in a couple of days.

As I saw someone say earlier... This is an international storm that will require international response.

Severe Storms to Snow

Lots of weather going on across the United States.  Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Midwest this afternoon and there's a potential snow storm moving towards Colorado for early next week.

Check out the video forecast that discusses the severe weather threat in the Midwest and also the threat for snow in Colorado.


There is a piece of energy I am tracking that is currently moving across the northern Pacific Ocean.  This could help spawn an area of low pressure that could dump snow on southern Colorado Tuesday.

As of this afternoon it is still located about 3,000 miles away from Colorado.  A lot can change and computer models will get a better handle on the storm as it gets closer.  The big question right now... Does it take more of a northern track or does it take a southern track?  The southern track would bring more snow to Colorado Springs and Pueblo.  Stay tuned...

Possible Early November Storm to Impact Colorado

It is still very early but wanted to give a little heads up about a possible storm coming to Colorado for the first week of November.

Some of the computer models, the European Forecast Agency and Canadian Forecast Agency, are hinting at a storm developing around November 5.  The track of the storm, cold air wrapping up in it and the potential precipitation with it could make for a good snow maker for southern and southeastern Colorado.

I like to backtrack the storm and see where the piece of energy that will help spawn it is located.  As of this afternoon, the piece of energy has moved off the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia and is moving across the northern Pacific Ocean, approximately 4,000 miles from Colorado.

Computer models project it will slowly move across the northern Pacific and move in to the northwest United States over the weekend.

Watch the following video for more discussion on the storm.


It is a little early to be talking about how much snow but if the European model were to pan out, we could be looking at several inches of snow for the I-25 corridor of southern Colorado.  Stay tuned...

Fall Storm to Impact Colorado

Strong fall storm is moving through the western United States.  Here is my latest video forecast for southern Colorado (recorded at noon).

Space Station Viewing

Taken with iPhone.

The International Space Station's orbit is just right for good viewing in Colorado and the Midwest.  If you haven't stepped outside and watched it fly overheard, I would recommend doing it.  It is a great family activity.  So grab the kids and your husband/wife and go out and watch.

What should you look for?  Initially look for a little dot, similar to a star or a plane.  It will be moving and will not blink.  Usually, it will start to get brighter as it moves overhead.  Also, note what time it is expected to be visible.  It is always on time.  Not a minute early, not a minute late.

Times listed are local time.

SOUTHERN COLORADO (Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Walsenburg, Lamar, La Junta):

• Tuesday
• Time: 8:02pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in NNE sky.
• How long: Visible for 4 minutes.

• Wednesday
• Time: 7:14pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in NNE sky.
• How long: Visible for 6 minutes.

INDIANAPOLIS & COLUMBUS:

• Tuesday
• Time: 8:29pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in E sky.
• How long: Visible for 4 minutes.

• Wednesday
• Time: 7:41pm
• Where: Starts in SSW sky and exits in ENE sky.
• How long: Visible for 6 minutes.

ST. LOUIS && CAPE GIRARDEAU:

• Tuesday
• Time: 7:28pm
• Where: Starts in SSW sky and exits in ENE sky.
• How long: Visible for 5 minutes.

The Loooong Ranger: October 7 - November 3

Hope everyone had a good weekend.  This morning before going in to work I took a few minutes to look over the latest run of the experimental loooooooong range European computer forecast model.  This model looks out over the next 720 hours or approximately 30 days.

Here are a few observations from last week's run.

• West coast storm develops October 9.
• Midwest warm-up (Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky) October 11-15.
• Shot of cold air coming down from Canada into Great Lakes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) October 20-23.
• Western U.S. ridge develops October 20-23.  Should lead to above normal temperatures.
• Shot of cold air from Canada:
• Northwest United States November 2.
• Colorado November 3.
• Central Plains November 3-4.

The model suggests several smaller scale storms moving through at a quick rate over the next month.  Small enough not to mention details as it is important to look at the overall pattern when looking at long range data.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.