The "Black Hole" of Snow

First measurable snow of the season next week?  Yes, talk is beginning to pick-up concerning a possible snow storm December 18 but let’s not get too excited just yet.  Just a reminder, we’ve been down this path before.

WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING

The European computer model hinted at a southern storm that could bring measurable snow to southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas (the “Heartland”).  I didn’t mention much about it (I did send out a tweet concerning it)

mainly because this storm is sitting in the Day-8 “Black Hole” of storms.

This morning, NOAA’s global forecast model, the GFS, is now jumping on board with the idea of a southern storm taking shape and potentially bringing a measurable snow to the Heartland.

 (Click on the image for a larger version.)

The morning run of the European model is relatively similar to the GFS, although not as agressive, and what the Euro had the day before.

(Click on the image for a larger version.)

Both models have cold air mixing in and moisture.  We’ll see…

MODELS’ “BLACK HOLE” OF STORMS

Earlier in this post I mentioned the “Black Hole” of storms.  No, it is not a technical term.  I made up the name, but there is some truth to it.

For several weeks the computer models have been advertising significant storms eight to ten days out.  A lot of this is due to computer models including climatology in to account.  My feeling is that the models are leaning on the climatology a little too much thus contributing a “climatological bias” to the runs.

As an example, last week I wrote a blog post about a possible storm that would be impacting the central U.S. Tuesday, December 11.

Here is a view of what the computer model was suggesting would be the setup for today.

(Click on the image for a larger version.)

Look outside, see the storm?  Yeah, instead of a shovel or raincoat you need a pair of sunglasses for severe-clear conditions.

Because of this, I am a little skeptical of what models are suggesting for next week.  Rest assured, I’ll keep looking at data over the coming days and see if this is indeed something watch.

FREAK-OUT-METER

As of now, my “Freak-Out-Meter” is at a 0.5 out of 10.  Yeah, extremely looooooooow.

Why No Snow?

The brief mention of snow from yesterday’s European computer model is no more.  The last two consecutive runs have taken it out.  Not surprising.  As I’ve said the last couple of days, don’t hold your breath.

For now, the search for snow continues…

TOO WARM FOR SNOW

Temperature statistics are pretty amazing through the first six days of December.  To say we are above average is putting it mildly. (Yes, pun intended.)

Take a look at the temperatures compared to normal.  Everyone is above normal to start the month.

CITY	AVG MONTHLY TEMPERATURE	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Cape Girardeau	54.8°	+15.6°
Carbondale	53.8°	+14.8°
Chicago	46.1°	+14.4°
Indianapolis	50.2°	+14.8°
Kansas City	52.3°	+17.3°
Rapid Ciy, SD	46.5°	+17.3°
St. Louis	56.8°	+18.4°

Where is all the cold air?  Easy answer, it is bottled up north.  Take a look at the numbers for Faribanks, Alaska!

CITY	AVG MONTHLY TEMPERATURE	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Fairbanks	-29.6°	-27.2°

NEEDING THE RAIN

Much of the Midwest continues to be abnormally dry to drought.  Here’s the latest U.S. Drought Monitor from December 4, 2012.

(Click for a larger version.)

Computer forecast models are advertising a couple chances for rain over the next 15 days.  The first comes this weekend.  Another chance comes later next week/weekend.

Below is a look at a two computer model average rainfall for select cities along with what should “normally” fall for the next six days.  Also, a look at the 15-day rainfall from one computer model, the GFS.

RAINFALL
CITY	6-DAY AVG	6-DAY NORMAL	15-DAY RAINFALL	15-DAY NORMAL
Cape Girardeau	0.75”		2.02”
Indianapolis	0.48”	0.62”	2.61”	1.73”
St. Louis	0.28”	0.56”	2.00”	1.43”

As with the snow chances above, don’t get your hopes up too much for the rain.  Models are performing badly beyond 5-days.

330 Days Since...

Snow for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky next week?  It may be possible.

Including today, it has been 330 days (January 12, 2012) since the last measurable snow in most of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky (the “Heartland”) and there is a chance that streak could end Tuesday.

I mentioned earlier this week that the computer models were hinting at a measurable snow coming for parts of the Midwest next week.  I also mentioned that the likelihood wasn’t great as the computer models had been “out to lunch” in the long range.  The prospects of the measurable snow for St. Louis, Champaign, Illinois and Indianapolis are pretty much non-existent at this point.

The morning run of the European Agency’s computer model follows suit taking away snow chances for the above mentioned locations.  However, the model is also advertising an area of low pressure passing to the south of western Kentucky could have enough moisture north of the low and enough cold air coming in from the north to create snow for parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois.

Moisture doesn’t appear to be too great at this point.  But just eyeballing what the model is suggesting, perhaps 1”-2”.

At this point, I wouldn’t get too excited.  This isn’t the forecast, it’s just a small blip.  Doesn’t even register a 1 on my “Freak Out Meter”.


TORNADOES IN THE WINTER:

Yes, they are possible and happen more often than you think in the “Heartland”.  The National Weather Service in Paducah has put together a nice page on their website highlighting tornado statistics and documenting how they can and do occur in the winter and also late at night.

Take a look at the top 4 times of day that tornadoes occur.

Tornadoes: Time of Day (1996-2011)
TIME	PERCENTAGE OF TORNADOES
6pm – 9pm	30%
3pm – 6pm	27%
9pm – Midnight	15%
Midnight – 3am	8%

It is just a good reminder that while we are in search for snow severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are still possible.

This in mind, do you know what makes a great Christmas gift?  A NOAA Weather Radio.  If you know someone that would never go out and buy one for themself, a radio is a perfect.  If turned on, it is a good way to be alerted to severe weather watches and warnings overnight while sleeping.

Looking Back at Meteorological Fall 2012

Meteorologists break the year up to in four equal segments for spring, summer, fall and winter.  This makes it easier when looking at seasons.

(Click to see larger version.)

Meteorological Seasons:

• Spring – March 1 – May 31
• Summer – June 1 – August 31
• Fall – September 1 – November 30
• Winter – December 1 – February 28/29

METEOROLOGICAL FALL 2012

Most of 2012 has gone in to the books above normal, however Meteorological Fall bucked the trend.  In the Midwest, fall went in to the books below normal.

 

Below is a breakdown of the monthly temperatures for Cape Girardeau, Carbondale, Indianapolis and St. Louis.
  

CITY	SEPTEMBER	OCTOBER	NOVEMBER
Cape Girardeau	-0.6°	-1.9°	-1.9°
Carbondale	-0.6°	-2.3°	-2.4°
Indianapolis	-1.7°	-2.3°	-2.2°
St. Louis	-1.0°	-1.9°	-0.8°

Interestingly, for all four cities listed above, the last time any of the cities had three consecutive months below normal was December 2009, January 2010 and February 2010.

Below is a breakdown of the number of days each month below normal.

 

METEOROLOGICAL FALL 2012
CITY	SEPTEMBER	OCTOBER	NOVEMBER	TOTAL
Cape Girardeau	14	18	18	50 (55% of days)
Indianapolis	17	20	18	55 (60% of days)
St. Louis	15	19	18	52 (57% of days)

As you can see, the majority of days during the three months were below normal.

On the Hunt for Winter

Where have you been?

That is a two part question.  It could be asked about winter/snow and could also be asked to me in regards to my blog.  Let me answer the second one first.

There hasn’t been much to talk about in the way of weather lately.  Plus, to be honest, it is easier to make quick updates via twitter than it is to write a blog.  So… if you follow me on twitter you’ve probably been getting lots of updates (maybe too much?).

Now about winter and snow… So far neither have shown up.  To start December, the Midwest has been WAY above normal.

DECEMBER
CITY	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Cape Girardeau	+20.5°
Carbondale	+20.2°
Indianapolis	+18.5°
St. Louis	+24.8°

Temperatures are expected to stay above normal through much of the upcoming week.

Over the last month computer models have been doing a decent job handling weather systems 1-6 days out.  Once you get beyond day 6, all bets are off.  The trend from NOAA’s global forecast model, the GFS, has been to position a big storm 8-10 days out in the Midwest.  So far, it hasn’t verified well.

I don’t know about you, but I am definitely ready for a couple of snow storms.  If you’ve read my blog for any length of time, you can probably tell I enjoy snow storms.  That being the case, let’s take a look at what this morning’s GFS is showing.

(Click image to see larger version.)

Yeah, that big miss of a storm in the Midwest in the above graphic is what it is showing.  Can you guess the time frame?  It is 8-days out.  The image above is specifically for 6am CT Tuesday, December 11.  It brings a decent amount of snow to central and eastern Missouri Tuesday, then takes it northeast through north-central Illinois and north-central Indiana.  It would also bring some MUCH needed rain to the Ohio and Mississippi valleys.  But as I said earlier, this is the time frame the model has been horrendous.  In other words, don’t hold your breath just yet.

But since I’m wanting snow, let’s do a little wish-casting and see how much snow the model could be suggesting.  Before I go any further, this is in no means a forecast and especially MY forecast.  This is just looking at how much moisture the model is suggesting and turning it in to all snow at a very basic ration of 10:1.

 

In the table below you will find the quantitative precipitation forecast (fancy term for how much there liquid there would be if it were all rain) by the computer model by specific city and then the snow produced with a 10 to 1 ratio.

CITY	QPF	SNOW (10:1)
Champaign, Il	0.60”	6”
Columbia, Mo	0.83”	8.3”
Farmington, Mo	0.10”	1”
Indianapolis	0.48”	4.8”
St. Louis	0.77”	7.7”

As you can see, some locations could get some decent snow.  Again, don’t get excited in reality, but it is something you can wish for if you’d like snow.  As I like to say… Stay tuned.