National Weather Service offices have issued Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories for parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.
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Watch, Warning & Advisory - 3:49pm CT |
Let me show you a couple computer model suggested snowfall totals and then I'll tell you how much I'm currently thinking.
European forecast agency's computer model.
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ECMWF Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
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ECMWF Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
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ECMWF Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
National Weather Service's global forecast model.
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GFS Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
NAM computer model:
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NAM Snow Accumulation through 9pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
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NAM Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
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NAM Snow Accumulation through 9pm CT Saturday. (Click image to see larger version.) |
It is interesting to note that all three of the above models try to move snow around the St. Louis metro area.
WHAT I'M THINKING:
The system will start to spread moisture north starting Friday afternoon. I think most of the snow will come down as a wet, slushy snow. The slushy snow will have a big impact on snow accumulation. If temperatures end up being 2° to 3° colder than computer models are projecting, we could easily add another 1"-3" on to the totals shown below.
It should come to an end from early Saturday morning in Kansas City, late morning in St. Louis and Saturday afternoon in central Indiana.
Indiana:
- Columbus: 2"-3" (Up to 4" not out of the question.)
- Indianapolis: 3"-5"
Illinois:
- Mt. Vernon: 2"-4"
Missouri:
- Cape Girardeau: Up to 2" (Probably not much accumulation.)
- Farmington: 3"-6"
- Kansas City: 1"-4"
- Perryville: 3"-5"
- St. Louis: 2"-3" (A few locations up to 4")
FREAK-OUT-METER:
Indiana:
- Columbus: 3
- Indianapolis: 3
Illinois:
- Mt. Vernon: 4
Missouri:
- Cape Girardeau: 2
- Farmington: 4
- Kansas City: 3
- Perryville: 4
- St. Louis: 3
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