Sunday, April 5, 2009

Storms This Afternoon?

The SPC has a "Slight Risk" for southern Illinois, western/central Kentucky, northwest/central Tennessee, central/southern Indiana. (See below graphic) The outlook from SPC runs through 7am Monday.

It looks like the best time for us to see the stronger storms will be during the afternoon (12pm-5pm).

Forecast models are bringing a jet streak through the area in a favorable way for the development of severe storms. The next graphic is a look at the winds at 500mb. (500mb is approximately 18,000 feet.) See the area of red and purple? That is an area where the winds are moving much faster, approximately 100 knots or 115 mph.

At 10am, temperatures range from the mid-50's in southern Illinois to upper 60's in western Kentucky. Dew points have climbed in to the mid-50's across much of the area.

I am not totally sold on this happening yet. What is keeping my from being sold on the severe weather is the lack of instability. There is a little bit, but not as much as I would want there to be to support the storms.

None the less, the main threat from any strong storms that develops this afternoon is large hail and damaging winds.

Get out and enjoy the warmth today! Temperatures tomorrow will be 25-30 degrees cooler!

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