Sunday, April 19, 2009

Minor Changes

If you watched Heartland News at 10pm last night you might have heard me talk about a few minor changes to the forecast for Sunday (today). It is looking like those changes are working out well.

Originally, it looked like we would see rain through much of the morning before drying out late morning. Then the new data came in from last night's computer model runs. The new data indicated some of the heavier rain would come through during the overnight/early morning and then would shut off around 8am. That seems to have been the case.

It also looked like we could see some breaks in the clouds. That again seems to be the case. Take a look at this visible satellite image. The image was taken at 9:45am CT. Note the breaks in the clouds developing.

The breaks in the clouds should allow for a quick boost to the temperatures. That could also make for an unstable afternoon.

A surface low pressure area is expected to deepen over the top of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee this afternoon. With warmer temperatures from the sun, a developing cold front passing, and the area of low pressure developing, we could see some thunderstorms developing this afternoon.

To me, it appears that the main threat from any big thunderstorms that develop will be large hail. With the area of low pressure deepening over us, there will be cold air aloft. That will aid in the development in hail.

It looks like the Storm Prediction Center is in agreement. Note their Day 1 Outlook. They have southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas in a "Slight Risk" area through tonight.

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