From Summer to Winter... Where's Fall?

Just as the title says, it has been chilly through the Midwest. All indications are that this cold snap is going to continue for the next 108 hours.

Below are the current standing record low high temperatures. (A little confusing I know. It means the coldest high temperatures in the record books for these days.)

October 14: 56° (1986)
October 15: 58° (1977)
October 16: 52° (1966)
October 17: 52° (1976)

Contrast those numbers with forecast high temperatures for the same time period.

October 14: 53° (Actual high temp for today.)
October 15: 53°
October 16: 51°
October 17: 49°

The month of October has been cool compared to "normal".

• We have only had two days at or above average for the month.
• The temperature deficit is sitting at 74.1°. That works out to being 5.7° below average per day.
• Through October 13, the airport has measured 4.28" of precipitation. That is 3.04" above normal for the month.
  

It should also be noted that if you have any outside vegetation that you are concerned about, pay close attention to Sunday morning. It looks as though we could have our first frost with a forecast low temperature of 35° at the Cape Girardeau airport.

11:10pm Weather Update

The Storm Prediction Center just sent out a new mesoscale discussion concerning the Tornado Watch in effect until 3:00am CT for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas.

In the discussion the forecasters are stating that a threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging wind will continue for another 2-3 hours. Heavy rain will also be likely across the area.

Also in the discussion they point out the fact there is much more instability over central and southern Arkansas. That is the area that could really pop. However, there aren't any thunderstorms down there right now and there isn't much of a trigger to fire the storms. The current storms are firing just ahead of a cold front and along a warm front.

At 10:38pm CT, the Poplar Bluff, Missouri airport reported a wind gust near 40mph. The strong wind gust occurred approximate 15 minutes ahead of the actual line of thunderstorms. Keep that in mind tonight as you are looking at the radar. Some of the wind gusts are out ahead of the line.

Tornado Watch #761

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #761. The watch is in effect until 3:00am CT Friday.


Notice from the image above that the area that the watch covers is rain free. That is the best enviornment for severe thunderstorms to develop. That also means that nothing has developed yet so there is a chance that we could see nothing severe out ahead of the line of rain to the west.

Severe Storms Today?

Just getting back from a couple of days off and I look at the Storm Prediction Center's website and I find out that we have a risk for severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has included all of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and southwest Indiana in a "Slight Risk". The risk runs through 7am Friday morning.


Reading through SPC's 11:30am discussion, they seem to be pointing at damaging winds the main threat. However, they also indicate there is some potential for tornadic development. Notice below in the tornado probability graphic. There is a bulls eye over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.

Tornado Probability

Damaging Wind Probability

As I mentioned, I am just getting back from a quick trip to California. So I haven't been following this situation too closely.

This morning I have been looking at some of the weather data and I do see some potential, but right now it is just potential. I think there are several "ingredients" missing. Today's set-up would be similar to baking a cake. You have all the ingredients together on your kitchen counter, but then you realize you forgot the flour.

I am not sold on the thunderstorm development later this afternoon and tonight. I think there is a lack of instability across the region. At 11:00am CT, temperatures are only in the 50's across the region and dew points are only in the 60's. The atmosphere has been worked over from the rain that moved through the area this morning. Further south, Arkansas, temperatures are in the 60's and dew points are in the 60's. In fact, from Little Rock south temperatures are in the upper 70's with dew points in the 70's.

Having said that, it appears that we will likely see some heavy rain moving through the area Friday. Models indicate the heaviest rain will be in the area Friday morning.

I'm in for Bob Reeves tonight so tune in to Heartland News at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00 for the latest. If you don't live in the area you can also watch the newscasts live on the KFVS12.com website. (Newscast times listed above are Central.)

You can also get updates from me via Twitter. Follow me @johndissauer.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #720

Did your NWS weather radio fire off tonight and startle you? If it did, that is a good thing. It is letting you know about a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch that has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #720 is in effect for parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The watch is in effect until 8am CT Thursday morning.

A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to move east across the state of Missouri overnight. You can see the line of storms located over southwest Missouri in the image below. The radar image was taken at 11:48pm CT Wednesday.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to move slightly north of east at 35 mph. The main threat appears to be damaging wind.

Notes from the Friendly Skies

I love to travel and I love to find good travel deals. Occasionally I have put some of the information on the blog. A couple of interesting notes to pass along about airlines.

1) Have you seen the deal from JetBlue airlines? JetBlue has announced the "All You Can Jet Pass" for $599. It allows for unlimited travel on JetBlue from any of its network cities. To me it sounds like a great deal! I just wish they flew out of St. Louis.

Here are some of the details from JetBlue's website.

• $599 for a month of unlimited travel, any available seat
  • Domestic taxes and fees included
  • International and Puerto Rico taxes and fees not included

• On sale through Friday, August 21, 2009, or while supplies last
• Travel Dates: Tuesday, September 8, 2009 through Thursday, October 8, 2009
• Each flight must be booked no later than 11:59 p.m. MDT three days prior to the flight's scheduled departure.
• Nonrefundable/nontransferable/no name changes permitted
• Customers who already have a flight booked during the pass travel period can pay the difference to upgrade to the pass by calling 1-800-JETBLUE (538-2583), prompt 4.
• Each All-You-Can-Jet Pass is eligible for 35 TrueBlue points. Flights booked on the pass are not available for additional TrueBlue points.

2) Republic Airways Holdings has won a bid to purchase Frontier Airlines. According to the Indianapolis Star, the deal is worth $108.8 million.

If you have flown through Denver's airport, I am sure you have seen Frontier's aircraft. I have always wanted to try flying on Frontier. They offer Direct TV channels for each seat for $5 one-way.

Republic Airways is based out of Indianapolis.

12:30pm Weather Update

A few showers and thunderstorms have started to pop up in southeast Missouri.

Below is a radar image from 12:24pm CT Monday. The image is zoomed in on southeast Missouri.

A reminder that you can always take a look at StormTeam Digital Doppler from the KFVS12.com website.

Chance for rain increases today and Tuesday

A cold front is sagging southeast through Missouri and Illinois this afternoon. Ahead of the front, it is warm and humid. Temperatures at noon range in the upper 80's to 90° across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Dew points range in the lower to middle 70's. (Cape Girardeau Airport reported a dew point of 77°.)

As the front gets closer, temperatures continue to climb, and humidity is in place, we could see a few strong thunderstorms develop. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois in a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms. The main threat should be damaging wind and large hail.

Here is the Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. This outlook covers through 7am Tuesday.


Below is the Day 2 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. This covers the time period from 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday.


The main threat Tuesday afternoon will be large hail and damaging wind.