Severe Thunderstorm Watch #144

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #144. The watch is in effect until 1:00am CT Saturday morning.


The watch covers portions of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and all of western Kentucky.

The main threat from storms appears to be damaging winds, however large hail isn't out of the question. Storms are expected to move northeast at 40 mph.

I would be surprised if the watch remains in effect for any of the KFVS viewing area beyond 9:00pm Friday night.

Tornado Watch in Indiana

To my friends and family back in Indiana....

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #143 for parts of eastern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan. The watch is in effect until 11:00pm ET.


The main threat will be damaging wind, hail up to 2" in diameter, and tornadoes. Storm are expected to move slightly north of east at 45 mph.

Some of the cities in the watch include: Columbus (IN & OH), Bloomington, IN, Ft. Wayne, Indianapolis, Muncie, Lafayette, and Terre Haute.

Remember that a watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes.

Time to Fill the Swimming Pool

There is a lot of water dumping feeding in to the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This is due to the torrential rains in eastern Kentucky and Tennessee.

Look at some of the staggering numbers from yesterday.

Lake Barkley dam was releasing 300,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfs). One cubic foot equals 7.48 gallons. That means that the dam was releasing:

• 2.24-million gallons per second
• 134.6-million gallons per second
• 8.07-billion (with a b) gallons per second

According to Tri-State Pools in Cape Girardeau, the average in ground pool holds 25,000-30,000 gallons of water. This means that 75-90 pools could be filled every second.

The numbers for Kentucky Lake dam are even higher. The dam was releasing 350,000 cfs. That means the dam was releasing:

• 2.61-million gallons per second
• 157-million gallons per minute
• 9.42-billion gallons per hour.

That would fill 90-105 in ground (25,000-30,000 gallon) pools per second.

In comparison, Niagra Falls releases 100,000 cfs.

According to the National Weather Service, the release flow will back down over the next couple of days. By the weekend, TVA plans to have it down to 100,000 cfs.

Thunderstorm Watch Possible

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois for severe thunderstorms developing this afternoon/evening. My guess is SPC will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the next hour or two.

It appears that the main threat will be large hail.

Feedback

I need your help. I would like to get some feedback of the live storm coverage I provided Friday and Saturday nights here on my blog.

Please take a moment and take a 10 question survey. I promise it is very painless. Just click the link to take the online survey.

Free Survey Software

Take our Online Survey

By taking the survey you will help me decide how to fine tune future live coverage of weather events here on "New at Dis Hour".

Live from the StormTeam Weather Center

Live coverage is over from the Saturday night storms. Thank you to everyone that logged on to "New at Dis Hour" to check it out. Hopefully, when we have more storms at night I will try to set up the live stream again.

4:00pm Weather Update

The Storm Prediction Center has published their Day 1 Outlook. They have shifted the "High Risk" area a little to the north and northwest. It now includes more of southeast Missouri. The remainder of the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northwest Tennessee, and western Kentucky) is in a "Moderate Risk".


The Day 1 Outlook covers the time period from now through 7am CT Sunday.

Here is a look at the probabilities for specific weather type:

Tornado:


Hail:


Wind:


The tornado probability forecast is a little concerning. The 30% area covers much of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. What the 30% area means is that there is a 30% chance that 25 miles within any given point could see a tornado. The blue hashed area means that there is at least a 10% chance of a strong tornado (EF2-EF5).

If you have been outside you might have noticed the sun coming out from behind the clouds. Sunshine today is not a good thing as it will quickly aid in destabilizing the atmosphere.

Currently there aren't any watches up for any of the KFVS viewing area, but that could change in the next couple of hours. The trigger for the storms later today is just moving through eastern Texas in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It should slide northeast through Arkansas and spark storms by evening.

I should note that I just heard The Weather Channels' Dr. Greg Forbes just announce that he has put a Tor:Con of 7/10 for southern Missouri and eastern Arkansas. That basically means that he thinks there is a 7 out of 10 chance a tornado will touchdown within 50 miles of any given point in that area.

I don't mean to scare people by putting up all of these graphics, however, I do think it is important for you to know what the risks are.

Not Out of the Woods Yet

Usually you would think after last night's round of thunderstorms we would be in the clear today. That isn't the case.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and all of northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee in a "High Risk" for seeing severe weather in the latest Day 1 Outlook. The "High Risk" is surrounded by a "Moderate Risk" which includes the remainder of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.


Here are is a look at the specific weather type probabilities.

Tornado:


Hail:


Wind:


The front that helped trigger the thunderstorms yesterday has stalled out over the top of the KFVS viewing area. The front is going to be the trigger again today as warm, moist air comes up on southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico. As it hits the front the moisture will be lifted in to the atmosphere.

Energy in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will ride up along a 140 mph jet stream that is moving just to our north. The fact that the jet stream isn't moving directly over head is a key. The winds are diverging over the top of western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and the Missouri bootheel. The diverging winds actually aids in lifting air.