Exclusive: Hans Güttenhoffer Interview

I was able to score an exclusive interview with Hans Güttenhoffer for the 10pm newscast Christmas Eve.  Who is Hans you ask?  Hans is the meteorologist for the North Pole.  He has been forecasting exclusively for Santa Claus for 423 years.  The man has seen it all!  You know if a forecaster can keep their job for that long he has to be good.

It turns out Hans has a little bit of a hearing problem (think of the wax build up after all those years) but it was good talking with him during the newscast.
I've known Hans for several years.  He's the one that helps me get a GPS fix on Santa's sleigh late Christmas Eve.  We were on several conference calls over the last few days discussing what weather conditions would be like for Santa's big flight.

2:10pm CT Weather Update - Fast Moving Storm

Just a quick post to make a few slight tweaks to my snow forecast.  The storm is coming in as expected.  Rain has broken out across Missouri and Illinois.

Radar image from 2:04pm CT.
(Click the image to see larger version.)

Mixed in with the rain there are a few pockets of sleet.  As cold air drops south later this afternoon, rain will change over to snow.  In fact, if you look closely at the image above, you can see the changeover occurring over extreme southeast Iowa/western Illinois.

For timing on the snow, check back to my blog post from yesterday.

SNOW FORECAST:

Indiana:

• Columbus: 2"-4"
• Indianapolis: 3"-5"

Illinois:

• Mt. Vernon: 2"-4"

Missouri:

• Cape Girardeau: Up to 1"
• Farmington: 2"-5"
• Kansas City: 1"-3"
• Perryville: 2"-5"
• St. Louis: 2"-4"

FREAK-OUT-METER:

Indiana:

• Columbus: 3
• Indianapolis: 4

Illinois:

• Mt. Vernon: 3

Missouri:

• Cape Girardeau: 1
• Farmington: 3
• Kansas City: 2
• Perryville: 3
• St. Louis: 3

Fast Moving System

A quick moving system will be passing through the Midwest Friday and Saturday.  Computer models are still a little spread regarding how much snow and where.

National Weather Service offices have issued Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories for parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.

Watch, Warning & Advisory - 3:49pm CT

Let me show you a couple computer model suggested snowfall totals and then I'll tell you how much I'm currently thinking.

European forecast agency's computer model.

ECMWF Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

ECMWF Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

ECMWF Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

National Weather Service's global forecast model.

GFS Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

NAM computer model:

NAM Snow Accumulation through 9pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

NAM Snow Accumulation through 12pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

NAM Snow Accumulation through 9pm CT Saturday.
(Click image to see larger version.)

It is interesting to note that all three of the above models try to move snow around the St. Louis metro area.

WHAT I'M THINKING:

The system will start to spread moisture north starting Friday afternoon.  I think most of the snow will come down as a wet, slushy snow.  The slushy snow will have a big impact on snow accumulation.  If temperatures end up being 2° to 3° colder than computer models are projecting, we could easily add another 1"-3" on to the totals shown below.

It should come to an end from early Saturday morning in Kansas City, late morning in St. Louis and Saturday afternoon in central Indiana.

Indiana:

• Columbus: 2"-3" (Up to 4" not out of the question.)
• Indianapolis: 3"-5"

Illinois:

• Mt. Vernon: 2"-4"

Missouri:

• Cape Girardeau: Up to 2" (Probably not much accumulation.)
• Farmington: 3"-6"
• Kansas City: 1"-4"
• Perryville: 3"-5"
• St. Louis: 2"-3" (A few locations up to 4")

FREAK-OUT-METER:

Indiana:

• Columbus: 3
• Indianapolis: 3

Illinois:

• Mt. Vernon: 4

Missouri:

• Cape Girardeau: 2
• Farmington: 4
• Kansas City: 3
• Perryville: 4
• St. Louis: 3

International Space Station Viewing Opportunity

International Space Station sighting
information for southern Colorado.

There's an opportunity to see the International Space Station fly overhead later today.  Here are times to look, along with duration and direction the ISS starts/exits.

• Cape Girardeau: 5:22pm CT - 4 minutes - SW/NE
• Colorado Springs: 5:57pm CT - 5 minutes - WSW/NNE
• Columbus, IN: 6:23pm ET - 4 minutes - SW/NE
• Indianapolis: 6:23pm ET - 3 minutes - SW/ENE
• Pueblo: 5:57pm CT - 5 minutes - WSW/NNE
• St. Louis: 5:22pm CT - 5 minutes - SSW/ENE

If you live near one of these locations, assume the time/direction are close.

Dreaming of a White Christmas

Are you dreaming of a White Christmas?  For many parts of the country you may be in luck.

Keep in mind, Christmas is still a loooooong way away.  Climatologically speaking, the chances for a White Christmas are not great.  Here are the historical probabilities of a white Christmas for the lower 48.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

As you can see from the map above, the Midwest generally has a less than 10% probability to as much as a 40% probability of a White Christmas.  A White Christmas is defined as 1" or more of snow on the ground as of 7am (local time) Christmas morning.

The probability is close to the same for southern/southeastern Colorado.  Approximately a 10% to 25% probability.

December 25 is now beginning to come in view for one of the computer models we use to forecast.  With Christmas currently at the far edge of the model's view, you must take what it is projecting with a GIGANTIC grain of salt.

The model I am referring to is the National Weather Service's Global Forecast model, the GFS.

Looking at the data, the model is suggesting much colder weather for much of the country.  This far out I am sure the model is exaggerating how cold the air actually will be, but it is something to take note of.

Here is a look at temperatures at 850mb, or around 5,000' at 6pm CT December 24.


The GFS definitely plunges cold air out of Canada and dives it far south.  It would suggest temperatures in the 20°s and 30°s for Missouri and Iowa.

We all know that ahead of a big plunge in temperatures there is usually a storm.  The GFS doesn't disappoint.  It develops a storm over the NW United States, dives it in to the Rockies, moves it through the Midwest and then has it exiting the NE United States.

Here is a view of different time periods leading up to Christmas from the GFS.

6pm CT Monday, December 23
(Click the image to see larger version.)

According to the model, a system has passed through southern Colorado, New Mexico and the Texas panhandle.  Behind the cold front, cold air is spilling down the Rocky Mountains.  The model also develops light moisture, which if this model is to pan out, would be snow falling over eastern/southern Colorado, central/eastern New Mexico and Kansas.

6am CT Tuesday, December 24
(Click the image to see larger version.)

By the morning of December 24 the area of low pressure is developing as it moves up through the Ohio River Valley.  Thunderstorms could be developing ahead and along the cold front.  Behind the cold front, moisture is running in to cold air and snow breaks out over Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas and northwest Indiana.

6pm CT Tuesday, December 24
(Click the image to see larger version.)

By late afternoon/evening of Christmas Eve the system is moving up the east coast taking the moisture with it.  Before it leaves, it continues to drop moisture, in the form of snow, over Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.  Behind the system, cold air continues to spill in to the Midwest.

That is a quick little play-by-play of what the computer model is suggesting.  Again, this will LIKELY change about 400 times between now and Christmas.

At the beginning of the month I had posted that an experimental loooooong range computer model was suggesting Christmas could be warm for much of the country.  The latest run of that model, the European forecast agency's model, is now suggesting cooler weather, and in some cases near normal temperatures for Christmas.

At this point this is more for fun than anything else.  I don't know about you, but I find it fun to look ahead and see what could happen.  Don't take the information above seriously as it will likely change.

I'll keep an eye on what the models suggest as we get closer to Christmas.  When I'm putting my daily forecast together I will often tweet little bits of information as I see it, so be sure to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer).  I'm sure I'll have updates here on the blog as we get closer as well.

Bottom line... Should you take what the computer model is suggesting with any seriousness?  No.  If you are hoping for a White Christmas, it gives you a little bit of hope.  Keep hoping!  But at this point I wouldn't be making any decisions based on the data presented.  I know I'm not.

Freak-Out-Meter: 0 out of 10

Who Ordered the Snow?

There have been a couple weather systems pass through the country leaving snow behind this past week.  It is interesting to look at the national snow analysis done by the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

For December 9, 2013 sixty-seven percent of the United States (lower 48) was covered by snow.

Snow Depth - December 9, 2013
(Click image to see larger version.)

In contrast, December 9, 2012 only 26% percent of the country was covered by snow.

Snow Depth - December 9, 2012
(Click image to see larger version.)

The National Weather Service started keeping track of the national snow cover in 2003, so stats only go back that far.  When I look specifically at December 9 over the past 11 years, the national average is 40%.  This makes 2013 a 68% increase over the 11-year average and also makes December 9, 2013 the "snowiest" December 9 in the past 11 years.

Late Night Winter Storm Update

A really quick update to show you what the European forecast agency's computer model is projecting.  Also, after looking at all of the evening computer model data I'm leaving most of my snow forecast alone.  There are a few teaks but they are minor.



Here is a look at snowfall accumulations through 6pm CT Friday from the European computer model.

0z ECMWF - Snow accumulation through 7pm ET Friday.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

0z ECMWF - Snow accumulation through 6pm CT Friday.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

0z ECMWF - Snow accumulation through 6pm CT Friday.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

SNOW FORECAST

Snow accumulation through Friday evening.



ILLINOIS:

• Marion: 8"-12"


• Mt. Vernon: 9"-14"

INDIANA:

• Bloomington: 6"-11"


• Columbus: 7"-12"


• Indianapolis: 5"-8"

KENTUCKY:

• Paducah: 1"-3"

MISSOURI:

• Cape Girardeau: 5"-9"


• Farmington: 8"-13"


• Perryville: 7"-11"


• Poplar Bluff: 4"-7"


• St. Louis: 2"-4"

Also don't forget about the ice threat, especially in the Missouri bootheel and western Kentucky.  I have a feeling there will be power outage numbers will be increasing through the overnight hours.  Keep your phones, laptops and tablets charged in case the power does go out.



FREAK-OUT-METER



ILLINOIS:

• Marion: 7


• Mt. Vernon: 7

INDIANA:

• Bloomington: 7


• Columbus: 7


• Indianapolis: 6

KENTUCKY:

• Paducah: 8

MISSOURI:

• Cape Girardeau: 6


• Farmington: 7


• New Madrid: 8


• Perryville: 7


• Poplar Bluff: 6


• St. Louis: 4

Changing to Snow; Thursday Evening Update

There is still sleet and freezing rain falling across parts of the Midwest but much of the sleet is now changing over to snow.  Reports of 3" to 4" of snow already coming in across parts of the leadbelt of southeast Missouri. (Just now a report of 4.5" of snow in St. Francois County, Missouri.)  In some situations the snow has changed over sooner than forecast projected.

Some of the new evening computer model data is coming in.  Here are a couple views of what the computer models are projecting for snowfall totals through the time on the graphic.  You will notice a discrepancy between the models.  (Welcome to the world of a meteorologist.)

0z RPM Snowfall Accumulation:

(Click image to see larger version.)

(Click image to see larger version.)

0z NAM Snowfall Accumulation:

(Click image to see larger version.)

(Click image to see larger version.)

I'm going to keep the forecast relatively unchanged (a few minor tweaks).

SNOW FORECAST
Snow accumulation through Friday evening.

ILLINOIS:

• Marion: 8"-12"

INDIANA:

• Bloomington: 7"-12"
• Columbus: 7"-12"
• Indianapolis: 5"-7"

KENTUCKY:

• Paducah: 2"-4"

MISSOURI:

• Cape Girardeau: 5"-9"
• Farmington: 8"-13"
• Perryville: 7"-11"
• Poplar Bluff: 4"-7"
• St. Louis: 2"-4"

FREAK-OUT-METER

ILLINOIS:

• Marion: 7 

INDIANA:

• Bloomington: 7
• Columbus: 7
• Indianapolis: 6

KENTUCKY:

• Paducah: 8

MISSOURI:

• Cape Girardeau: 6
• Farmington: 7
• New Madrid: 8
• Perryville: 7
• Poplar Bluff: 6
• St. Louis: 4