U.S. Winter Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter outlook for 2011-2012. According to the forecasters, another La Nina will influence winter for the second year in a row.

La Nina returned in August and is expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Forecasters also say there will be a wild card in play that will allow dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter. The wild card is the Arctic Oscillation.

Here is an explanation of the Arctic Oscillation from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)...

The Arctic Oscillation refers to the opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in the northern middle and higher latitudes. The oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of Northn America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase, as illustrated below. Over most of the past century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases. Starting in the 1970's, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.

Effects of the Positive Phase | Effects of the Negative Phase

of the Arctic Oscillation of the Arctic Oscillation

(Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington)

So what does all of this mean? Here is a look at NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for 2011-2012. Remember that winter is considered December through February.

Temperature Outlook:


Precipitation Outlook:


According to the outlook...

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Wetter than average with equal chances for above, near, or below average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding.
Great Lakes: Colder and wetter than average.

The outlook specifically points out "The seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance."

I don't know about you, but I am ready to start talking about snow. What about you? What would you like to see this winter? Weekly snow storms or calm and 55°? Let me know by leaving what you'd like to see for the winter in the comments section of this post.

First Frost and Freeze

Its getting to be that time of year. The time leaves are falling off the trees, heavier coats are coming out of the back of the closets and time to unpack the shovels. Ok, it might not be time for shovels just yet but that time is getting closer, albeit a few months off.

So when is the normal first frost and freeze? The Midwest Regional Climate Center has put together some nice maps to try and help show when dates of the average first 32° F and 28° F temperatures.

Average Date of 32° F Freeze:


Average Date of 28° F Freeze:


According to the National Weather Service office in Paducah the mean date of the first freezing temperatures over the last 30 years for Paducah, KY is October 25 and October 26 for Evansville, IN.

Amazing Milky Way

I have always enjoyed looking up in to the sky. Whether it be day or night, there are always things to find up there.

Take a look at this amazing video shot by Randy Halverson of the Milky Way. Enjoy.

One of the challenges in making this video, was trying to get good storm with stars shots. The opportunity doesn't come along very often, the storm has to be moving the right speed and the lightning can overexpose the long exposures. I had several opportunities this summer to get storm and star shots. In one instance, within a minute of picking up the camera and dolly, 70mph winds hit. One storm was perfect, it came straight towards the setup, then died right before it reached it.

Extended cut available here http://dakotalapse.com/?p=448

At the 1:57 mark a Whitetail buck came in to check out the setup. It was caught on 20 frames, and was there for about 10 minutes. It was only 50 yards from the camera, dolly and light.

At the 3:24 mark, a meteor reflects on the water of the small lake, see still below in Photos. There are also quite a few other meteors in the timelapse.

This was all shot in central South Dakota from June-August.

Sunday Evening Weather Update 9/25

Saturday Evening Weather Update 9/24

Signs of Change

It's that time of year. Wild swings in temperatures every couple of days. The battle of the seasons is beginning.


Take a look at temperatures from this morning. The below freezing line crossed the U.S./Canadian border. Where's Homeland Security when you need them? Haha

A cold front is moving through the Midwest today. Yesterday, ahead of the front, highs climbed in to the 90°'s. Today, temps are being held down in the 60°'s.


- Posted from my iPhone

And He's On It

In the words of the late Indianapolis Motor Speedway public address announcer, Tom Carnegie, "And he's on it."

Yes, that is right. I am going to be back on the television giving you the latest forecast. You can watch my forecast starting this Saturday on Fox59 News at 10 on WXIN-TV in Indianapolis, Indiana.

I will be working as one of the weekend meteorologists at the station for three weeks this month.

Don't worry, if you don't live in central Indiana and can't get the station on television, they stream their newscasts live on their website - www.fox59.com. Keep in mind that Indiana is in the eastern time zone. The 10pm ET news will be on at 9pm ET in Missouri, Illinois and western Kentucky.

Currently scheduled dates I will be on Fox59 News at 10:

• Saturday, September 10
• Saturday, September 17
• Sunday, September 18
• Saturday, September 24
• Sunday, September 25

I am excited for the opportunity to work on-air for Fox59. Having grown up in central Indiana I always watched the weather people on the Indianapolis television stations. So this fulfills a goal I have had since I was 15 years old. That goal, to get on-air as a weatherman in Indianapolis.

I am not a total stranger to WXIN. During the summer of 1997 I interned in the weather department with the station's chief meteorologist, Brian Wilkes. After the internship ended they couldn't get rid of me. I stuck around and helped out in the weather department when storms would move through the state. In many ways I became an apprentice to Brian. Most of my forecasting "know how" has come from him.

After college I was looking for a weather position at a television station. Eventually, I was offered the position at KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. However, there was a three month period between college and my start at KFVS. To fill the space I worked as a sports videographer for Fox59. It was a lot of fun as I was able to cover the Indianapolis Colts, the Indianapolis Indians, the NHRA Bud Shootout, PGA golf, college football and high school football.

Hope you will catch me on the tube over the next couple of weeks!

Viewing Party

It will be passing overhead this evening and you can see it with your own eyes. Yes, another viewing opportunity for the International Space Station in the Midwest.

Grab the family (especially kids) and head outside and take a look up in to the sky and see it pass overhead.

To see it, use the information for the various locations listed below and go outside. Look in the specific direction just above the horizon. Look for a dot that looks like a star but is slowly moving. It will initially start out dim but will get brighter and brighter. It may even look like an aircraft but it won't have flashing lights.

Tip: When trying to spot it in the sky. It won't be visible a couple minutes ahead of the listed times. It will appear at the time listed. If you see something that you think is it five minutes before, it is either a star, a helicopter, and airplane or a UFO (haha).

Viewing Time:

• Cape Girardeau (Southeast Missouri): Starting at 7:57pm (local time) look to the northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 53° above the horizon, and exit to the east-southeast. It will be viewable for five minutes.
• Chicago: Starting at 7:58pm (local time) look to the west. It will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 56° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
• Columbus (Indiana): Starting at 8:57pm (local time) look to the west-northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 72° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
• St. Louis: Starting at 7:57pm (local time) look to the northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 62° above the horizon, and exit to the east-southeast. It will be viewable for five minutes.
• Indianapolis: Starting at 8:58pm (local time) look to the west-northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 69° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.

A couple of years ago I took a picture of the space station during one of the viewable fly-overs with my iPhone. It looked like a dot in the picture but when I zoomed in on the picture I could see the shape of it. I am not sure what it would look like with binoculars or a telescope but I imagine you would definitely be able to see the shape.

Information about the international space station.

• Currently, there are six crew members aboard the ISS. Three from Russia. Two from the United States. One from Japan.
• The space station is as long as a football field (357 feet).
• Living space is 12,705 cubic feet.
• It weighs 925,627 lbs.
• 2.3 million lines of computer code to run the space station.
• 8 solar rays generate 84 kilowatts of electricity.

If you go out and see it, leave a comment and tell me what you thought of it.