Space Station Viewing

Taken with iPhone.

The International Space Station's orbit is just right for good viewing in Colorado and the Midwest.  If you haven't stepped outside and watched it fly overheard, I would recommend doing it.  It is a great family activity.  So grab the kids and your husband/wife and go out and watch.

What should you look for?  Initially look for a little dot, similar to a star or a plane.  It will be moving and will not blink.  Usually, it will start to get brighter as it moves overhead.  Also, note what time it is expected to be visible.  It is always on time.  Not a minute early, not a minute late.

Times listed are local time.

SOUTHERN COLORADO (Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Walsenburg, Lamar, La Junta):

• Tuesday
• Time: 8:02pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in NNE sky.
• How long: Visible for 4 minutes.

• Wednesday
• Time: 7:14pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in NNE sky.
• How long: Visible for 6 minutes.

INDIANAPOLIS & COLUMBUS:

• Tuesday
• Time: 8:29pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in E sky.
• How long: Visible for 4 minutes.

• Wednesday
• Time: 7:41pm
• Where: Starts in SSW sky and exits in ENE sky.
• How long: Visible for 6 minutes.

ST. LOUIS && CAPE GIRARDEAU:

• Tuesday
• Time: 7:28pm
• Where: Starts in SSW sky and exits in ENE sky.
• How long: Visible for 5 minutes.

The Loooong Ranger: October 7 - November 3

Hope everyone had a good weekend.  This morning before going in to work I took a few minutes to look over the latest run of the experimental loooooooong range European computer forecast model.  This model looks out over the next 720 hours or approximately 30 days.

Here are a few observations from last week's run.

• West coast storm develops October 9.
• Midwest warm-up (Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky) October 11-15.
• Shot of cold air coming down from Canada into Great Lakes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) October 20-23.
• Western U.S. ridge develops October 20-23.  Should lead to above normal temperatures.
• Shot of cold air from Canada:
• Northwest United States November 2.
• Colorado November 3.
• Central Plains November 3-4.

The model suggests several smaller scale storms moving through at a quick rate over the next month.  Small enough not to mention details as it is important to look at the overall pattern when looking at long range data.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Long Range Weather Outlook Sept 28 - Oct 28

Just sat down and took a look at the latest data from the experimental loooooooong range computer model.  The computer model looks out over roughly the next 30 days.

Here are a few observations from last week's run.

• Warm-up for the Ohio Valley (Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky) October 2-4.
• Big storm develops for NW United States October 2-3.
• Stormy and then cold for Colorado October 3-5.
• Line of storms moves through the Midwest October 5-6.
• Warm-up for Colorado October 6-8.
• West Coast storm develops October 10.
• Stormy and then cooler for Colorado October 12.
• Shot of cold air comes in to western United States October 20.
• Shot of cold air moves through Colorado October 19-23.
• BIG shot of cold air comes down from Canada over US/Canada border October 24.
• This brings cold air to Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana (St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis) October 25-27.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Warmth Returns to Colorado

As first advertised last Monday, today (Saturday) is the coolest day of the week.  Highs topped out in the 60°s and 70°s across southern Colorado.  Officially, Colorado Springs hit 67° and Pueblo hit 73°.

The cool down will be short lived as temperatures begin to rebound tomorrow as winds turn out of the west and skies turn 100% sunny.  Highs will be in the 70°s and 80°s across the KOAA viewing area.

Mainly sunny skies will prevail for much of the upcoming week.  Forecasters' eyes are looking at a storm that will bring a cold front through Colorado Thursday or Friday.  This front should be a little more potent than yesterday's front.

Right now computer models are a little divided as to when the front passes.  Currently, I'm siding with the front moving through southern and southeastern Colorado Thursday afternoon/evening.  I expect to see falling temperatures Thursday.  Behind the front, there is a chance we could see a little snow, especially in higher elevations.  I think it is entirely possible Colorado Springs could see a little snow early Friday morning.  Stay tuned... - Meteorologist John Dissauer

More Heavy Rain Overnight in Colorado

...Potential for another round of heavy rain overnight...

A Flash Flood Watch continues for counties along the I-25 corridor until 6am MT Friday.

At 10,000 feet above the ground winds are blowing out of the south.  The stream of wind is blowing out of the south at 25-45mph.  The southerly wind is acting as a conveyor belt transporting moisture from New Mexico and north central Mexico and moving it in to southern Colorado.

Water vapor imagery showing moisture located over New Mexico and Mexico.  Green arrows indicate winds at 10,000 feet above sea level.

With ample moisture in place, little waves of energy are moving in to Colorado from an upper-level low pressure system that is located over Nevada/Utah.  The energy is helping to spark off showers and thunderstorms.

Computer models project a couple waves of energy coming to southern Colorado later Thursday evening and again during the early morning hours Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move north across the viewing area.

Computer models continue to be bullish on rainfall numbers.  Generally speaking, the models are projecting 1" to 3" of rain for portions of southern and southeastern Colorado through Friday morning.  Some locations, in El Paso County, Pueblo County and Teller County could see 3" to 5" of rain with a few localized amounts 6"+ not out of the question.

Overnight temperatures will only fall off to the 50°s and 60°s.

Friday will see another chance for showers and thunderstorms although, they should not be as heavy as the rain Thursday night/Friday morning.  However, with already saturated ground any additional rain could have flash flooding potential.  High temperatures Friday will be in the 60°s and 70°s.

Chances of rain will continue through the weekend but it appears southern Colorado should begin to dry out early next week.

FRIDAY'S NORMALS:

Colorado Springs:
High: 76°
Low: 49°
Precipitation: 0.04"

Pueblo:
High: 83°
Low: 49°
Precipitation: 0.03"

Time for another look at the experimental looooooong range computer model.  This model takes a look out over the next 762 hours.  To be specific, it is the European Forecast Agency's computer model.

Here are a few observations from last week's run of the European.

• Heat will continue to stay in place over the central United States through September 15.
• Temperatures should be back to normal in Colorado September 17-20
• Heat builds over the western United States September 21-24.
• Temperatures should go below normal for the Midwest September 21-26.  Wouldn't be surprised to see several "waves" of quick moving storms pass through while northwest flow is in place.
• Shot of cooler air and rain moves in through Great Lakes region and Midwest September 22-25.
• Heat builds over the western United States September 29-October 2.
• Hints of a BIG shot of cold air coming down out of Canada for the central United States (and moving through the Midwest) October 4-8.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Tornadoes Below Average in 2013

The Storm Prediction Center has come out with new tornado numbers for 2013 and they indicate that the number of tornadoes are below normal this year.

Through August 20, 2013 the SPC has recoreded 610 tornadoes.  That is only 62% of the twelve year annual average, 984.  We should see a ramp up of severe weather in the next three months but enough to make up the 374 deficit?  Not likely.

Although the numbers are low for this year, this isn't the lowest we've seen through August.  According to SPC, in 2002 there were only 579 tornadoes through late August.

Notice in the graph above there were increased periods of tornadoes in 2003 and 2004 and again 2008 through 2011.

This is an interesting trend as 2012 was also well below normal.  Severe weather statistics do go through cycles.  If we can get a few tropical systems coming on land, these numbers could quickly jump.

Wet Week Ahead for Colorado

...Cool temperatures and heavy rain headlines the weather today and much of the upcoming week...

An upper-level low has established itself over the western United States.  Ahead of the low, southwesterly winds are helping draw up monsoon moisture from the south.  The moisture has moved over southern Colorado and will allow for periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight we'll have cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Computer models are indicating an up-tick in moisture around sunrise tomorrow.  Lows will be in the middle 50°s to lower 60°s.

Expect to see cloudy/overcast skies Wednesday with periods of showers and thunderstorms.  At times, the rain could be heavy.  We'll have to keep an eye on some of the area burn scars.  Highs will be in the upper 60°s to upper 70°s.

Computer models suggest rain will continue through Sunday for most of southern Colorado.  Some of the rainfall projections from the computer models are staggering.  A three-computer model average suggests 1,925% the normal rain for Colorado Springs and 3,000% the normal rain for Pueblo through 6pm Friday.  Looking further out, a two-computer model average suggests 2" to 4" of rain for parts of the area Wednesday through next Tuesday morning.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer

NORMAL'S FOR WEDNESDAY:

Colorado Springs:
High: 77°
Low: 49°
Precipitation: 0.05"

Pueblo:
High: 84°
Low: 50°
Precipitation: 0.02"