Hail up to 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes will be possible with storms that fire up this afternoon. Storm motion is expected to be to the north/northeast at around 40 mph.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Tornado Watch #142
The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #142. The watch is in effect until 9pm Friday night.
Hail up to 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes will be possible with storms that fire up this afternoon. Storm motion is expected to be to the north/northeast at around 40 mph.
Hail up to 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes will be possible with storms that fire up this afternoon. Storm motion is expected to be to the north/northeast at around 40 mph.
9:50am Weather Update 4/15
I've been looking over the data this morning... IF I were to go storm chasing locally (in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois or western Kentucky) my initial target be somewhere between Charleston, Mo and New Madrid, Mo. I like this area's atmospheric environment for storm development during the late morning/early afternoon.
I think storms will initiate in southeast Missouri and move in to western Kentucky and southern Illinois as maturing thunderstorms.
It is a tough call for a specific location due to having to deal with the Mississippi River. Storms will eventually cross over the river in to western Kentucky and those storms may be the better chasing storms. That is why I am hedging up towards the Charleston area because it gives me access to east, west and south.
I think storms will initiate in southeast Missouri and move in to western Kentucky and southern Illinois as maturing thunderstorms.
It is a tough call for a specific location due to having to deal with the Mississippi River. Storms will eventually cross over the river in to western Kentucky and those storms may be the better chasing storms. That is why I am hedging up towards the Charleston area because it gives me access to east, west and south.
8:30am Weather Update 4/15
As expected rain has arrived and rain is beginning to exit the area. Along with the rain moving out, a couple lines of clearing are starting to appear on visible satellite imagery.
(Click the image to see larger version.)
Note the rain over southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Also note the dark areas on the satellite image. That is the area of clearing.
As I have been mentioning the last couple of days, the severe weather potential for the second round of thunderstorms is highly dependent on some clearing and heating. If the sunshine comes through and stays around for a couple of hours things will begin to warm up and destabilize in the atmosphere. This will lead to strong to severe storms in the afternoon.
The bullseye appears to be on southern Illinois and western Kentucky with the main threat being very large hail and tornadoes. However, just because I didn't mentioned southeast Missouri doesn't mean that area is excluded from the chance. I think storms will initiate over southeast Missouri and then move in to southern Illinois and western Kentucky as maturing thunderstorms.
Keep your NOAA weather radios turned on today and keep an eye to the sky. It may get active this afternoon.
(Click the image to see larger version.)Note the rain over southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Also note the dark areas on the satellite image. That is the area of clearing.
As I have been mentioning the last couple of days, the severe weather potential for the second round of thunderstorms is highly dependent on some clearing and heating. If the sunshine comes through and stays around for a couple of hours things will begin to warm up and destabilize in the atmosphere. This will lead to strong to severe storms in the afternoon.
The bullseye appears to be on southern Illinois and western Kentucky with the main threat being very large hail and tornadoes. However, just because I didn't mentioned southeast Missouri doesn't mean that area is excluded from the chance. I think storms will initiate over southeast Missouri and then move in to southern Illinois and western Kentucky as maturing thunderstorms.
Keep your NOAA weather radios turned on today and keep an eye to the sky. It may get active this afternoon.
1:00am Weather Update 4/15
Just looking over new data coming in tonight concerning Friday's storm potential. My thinking has not really changed much since yesterday's post.
Two rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.
First round comes early Friday morning from storms originating in Oklahoma/Kansas Thursday afternoon. The main threat with this round will be damaging wind and heavy rain.
The second round will come during the afternoon. The main threat will be large hail and tornadoes. The second round is contingent on us seeing some sunshine by late morning/early afternoon. If we stay cloudy from the mornings rain, the severe weather threat will be drastically reduced.
I just checked the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center and their forecast concurs with mine. They are indicating the potential for some very large hail. A 10% or greater probability of 2" diameter hail or larger during the afternoon. They also indicate a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes.
I am still debating between going out storm chasing tomorrow, staying home and streaming weather coverage online or going in to work at the station. The large hail potential has me a little concerned taking a car in to storms. It will probably be a last minute decision as to what I do.
Two rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.
First round comes early Friday morning from storms originating in Oklahoma/Kansas Thursday afternoon. The main threat with this round will be damaging wind and heavy rain.
The second round will come during the afternoon. The main threat will be large hail and tornadoes. The second round is contingent on us seeing some sunshine by late morning/early afternoon. If we stay cloudy from the mornings rain, the severe weather threat will be drastically reduced.
I just checked the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center and their forecast concurs with mine. They are indicating the potential for some very large hail. A 10% or greater probability of 2" diameter hail or larger during the afternoon. They also indicate a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes.
I am still debating between going out storm chasing tomorrow, staying home and streaming weather coverage online or going in to work at the station. The large hail potential has me a little concerned taking a car in to storms. It will probably be a last minute decision as to what I do.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Friday Storm Update 4/14
It is still looking like we could see some severe weather around southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and southwestern Indiana tomorrow (Friday).
The Storm Prediction Center includes the mentioned area in a "Slight Risk" area in their latest Day 2 Outlook.
A strong storm system will be moving east out of the Plains tonight. Big storms are expected to fire up over Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas later today. These storms will move east overnight and eventually make their way in to the the earlier mentioned area early Friday AM. Some of these storms could be strong at times with heavy rain and wind the main threat.
Once the initial first wave of showers and thunderstorms pass Friday morning we could get some sunshine breaking out by early afternoon. This is going to aid destabilization in the atmosphere. That combined with the stacked low moving through Missouri could fire up more thunderstorms by late afternoon. The main threat for the second "window" will be large hail and tornadoes.
A fly in the ointment for the second round of storms Friday will be cloud cover. It will greatly depend on how long the rain/clouds stick around from the morning thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center includes the mentioned area in a "Slight Risk" area in their latest Day 2 Outlook.
A strong storm system will be moving east out of the Plains tonight. Big storms are expected to fire up over Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas later today. These storms will move east overnight and eventually make their way in to the the earlier mentioned area early Friday AM. Some of these storms could be strong at times with heavy rain and wind the main threat.
Once the initial first wave of showers and thunderstorms pass Friday morning we could get some sunshine breaking out by early afternoon. This is going to aid destabilization in the atmosphere. That combined with the stacked low moving through Missouri could fire up more thunderstorms by late afternoon. The main threat for the second "window" will be large hail and tornadoes.
A fly in the ointment for the second round of storms Friday will be cloud cover. It will greatly depend on how long the rain/clouds stick around from the morning thunderstorms.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Severe Storms Possible Monday 4/3
Reminder: As storms fire up this evening there will be a lot of storm chasers chasing. You can click on the "Track Storm Chasers" link above to see where some of them are located and you can watch some of their live video streams from the safety of your computer.
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