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Thursday, January 7, 2010

Forecast Verification; How'd We Do?

Now that the flakes have settled, figuratively speaking as it will be windy for several hours, it is time to take a look back on the forecast and see how we did.

Here is our forecast from Tuesday afternoon. At the bottom of the image is our forecast. Overlayed in the smaller yellow text is reports of snow from co-op oberservers, the National Weather Service, and the public. (click the image to see a larger version)

Yes, we were a little "heavy" for our southern counties. Wednesday night I thought that might happen as the last run of data came in before the snow really hit. I got a little bit by the higher elevation of the Missouri Ozarks. That location is always a tricky place to forecast. Often times they will get higher amounts than what the models advertise. At least I got the timing about right as to when the snow would start falling.

Overall, I think we did a pretty good job. What do you think?

Round 1 Over; Round 2 Knocking

The snow is coming to an end across the area. There is one final band that is dropping 1/4" to 1/2" of snow as it exits.

For the most part the forecast is working out pretty well. Snowfall amounts are ranging from 1/4" to 4.5" from southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky. We'll be getting better numbers in as we go through the morning.

I have taken several snow readings overnight and this morning with my Snoopy ruler. (This is the same ruler I have been using for snow measurements for over 10 years.) At midnight I had 0.75". At 5am I had another 1.2". At 7am I had another 0.4". So my total is 2.3".

As we have been saying for several days, the snow is just the first part of this storm. The second round is starting to move in.

Northwesterly winds are beginning to pick-up behind a cold front that is pushing all of the snow out of the region. Those winds are ushering in colder air.

Take a look at 7:00am CT temperatures around the region.

Temperatures will most likely sit in the lower to middle teens througout the day as the cold air continues to move in. Winds will increase to 10-20 mph with higher gusts. That will create wind chills to near 0 degrees at times.

12:10am Weather Update

I got my trusty Snoopy ruler out of the desk and went outside to measure how much snow I've got at my place. As of

midnight, 0.75" and it is still coming down.

This Snoopy ruler has been through several snow storms with me over the years. I've had it since elementary school. I have know idea how I have been able to keep a plastic ruler for so many years without breaking it.

Here is a shot of cars covered with snow tonight in Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

11:15pm Weather Update

Snow reports are slow to come in tonight. So far the heaviest amounts have been from Ste. Genevieve, Missouri - 2" and a couple of miles northwest of Farmington, Missouri - 1.5".

I am glancing over some of the new data coming in... Will be interested to see if the 0z NAM is on to something. It is trying to split some of the moisture north and south around parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas. If this is to pan out, it might be a struggle to get up to 1" over the Missouri bootheel and southern sections of western Kentucky/northwest Tennessee.

Heaviest amounts still appear to be on track with the forecast.