Thursday, May 8, 2014

Looooong Ranger: May 10 - June 4

Looking over the latest run of the experimental loooooong range European forecast model.  Nothing too significant for the Midwest or Colorado.  There's a possibility of severe storms in May.  Here are a few observations...
  • Upper-level low develops in northern Plains May 12.
    • Cooler temps in Colorado.
    • Severe weather in central/southern Plains May 12.
    • Severe weather to Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois May 13.
  • Upper-level storm moves from Great Lakes to southeast United States May 16.
  • Cool and wet in Carolinas through May 23.
  • Warm-up in Colorado May 17-22.
  • Pacific storm develops off west coast May 21.  Moves onshore May 24.
  • Warm-up central United States May 24-28.
  • Warm-up in southeast United States May 26-30.
  • Warm-up Colorado/New Mexico June 1-4.
Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

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