Friday, March 28, 2014

Around the Corner; Looking Long Range in to April

Have some extra time and looking at the experimental looooooooong range computer model projection from the European forecast agency.  I don't see any horrific cold snaps coming to the Midwest or Colorado anytime over the next month.  That isn't to say there won't be days below normal, as I think there likely will, but noting long-standing.

Here are a few observations from the data that goes out to April 27.
  • Pacific storm arrives to west coast April 1.
    • Cooler air arrives April 3.
    • Impacts Great Lakes April 4.
  • Upper-low develops over NW United States April 8.
    • Transitions to upper-Plains April 9-10.
    • Sends storms to Midwest April 11.
  • Warming up in Colorado April 14.
  • Warm-up in St. Louis and Indianapolis April 15.
  • Warm-up in Colorado and central Plains April 17.
  • Warm-up in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee April 18-19.
  • Upper-level ridge develops over western United States April 19-22.
    • Pacific storm arrives April 24 breaking down ridge.
  • Ridge re-develops over western United States April 27 until ?? (This is the outer edge of the computer model's projection.)
  • Cool and active weather in Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast United States April 27 until ?? (This is the outer edge of the computer model's projection.)
Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

1 comments:

What is your take on Thursday is SI? The Torcon meter says 5. Panic now, or wait?

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