Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Monday Night Update: Mid-Week Winter Storm

New evening data is in the process of coming in and I've had a chance to look over it.  A slight southward jog in the track of the storm is evident from the computer models.  Last night I mentioned that the storm was taking a Monroe, LA to Nashville, TN track.  Tonight's runs are taking it on more of a Jackson, MS to Lexington, KY track.  This would favor more snow development for areas of Illinois and Indiana.
0z GFS - 6pm CT Tuesday
(Click image to see larger version.)
While there is a southward jog to the track of the low (not by much), this does not mean freezing rain/sleet will not be an issue, especially in southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  In fact, freezing rain could cause issues for extreme southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.  As far as icing is concerned, I do think we are talking less than 1/3" of ice for places like New Madrid, MO, Caruthersville, MO, Kennett, MO, and Paducah, KY.

A little further north, in places like Poplar Bluff, MO, Cape Girardeau, MO, and Vienna, IL there could be a glazing of freezing rain mixed with sleet and followed up by snow.

Areas near Columbus, IN and south will be borderline.  Several computer models suggest it will be cold enough to keep things all snow.  A few other models suggest a period of freezing rain/sleet before changing over to snow.

As for amounts of snow... I have gone through an put together another snow matrix so you can get an idea of what several of the computer models are suggesting.
(Click image to see larger version.)
(Click image to see larger version.)
As for how much snow I think will accumulate.

  • Mt. Vernon: 4"-6"
  • Columbus: 4"-8"
  • Indianapolis: 6"-9"
  • Lafayette: 6"-10"
  • Cape Girardeau: Up to 2"
  • Poplar Bluff: 1"-3"
  • St. Louis: 4"-7"

For those that don't know what my Freak Out Meter is, it is a number I give out that attempts to quantify how big of a deal the upcoming weather event will be. It is based on a 0-10 scale. Zero being the lowest, "not a deal at all", and 10 being "get all the bread, milk and eggs and lock yourself in the basement". The score is 100% subjective and it's an attempt to have a little fun.

  • Mt. Vernon: 4
  • Columbus: 5
  • Indianapolis: 5
  • Lafayette: 5
  • Cape Girardeau: 4
  • New Madrid: 6
  • Poplar Bluff: 4
  • St. Louis: 4
As always, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) as I often have more frequent updates there as opposed to writing a new blog post.

I'm going to be dealing with my own round of snow in Colorado (where I now work/live) Tuesday so time permitting, I'll try to update my blog Tuesday night.

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