Sunday, November 28, 2010

Another View

Getting ready to take off from work tonight and thought I'd check out the new run of the NWS' Global Forecast Model, the GFS to see how our December 7-9 storm is doing. Two words. "Very Interesting!"

Again, before I go any further, here is my disclaimer for the following weather discussion: This is not my nor the Heartland StormTeam's forecast. This is just a look at what computer models are showing at a given point in the future. The following information is not mean to be definitive. This is merely for discussion purposes only.

Here is a look at the chart for 204 hours (6am Tuesday, December 7).

If you don't like snow, what you are looking at isn't good. haha The model develops a surface low over eastern Tennessee. Behind it, a heavy swath of moisture is generated. With the heavy moisture, temperatures are below freezing. This would mean we would start out as cold rain changing over to heavy snow.

Here is the view at 216 hours (6pm Tuesday, December 7).

The surface low pushes off to the east coast bringing with it a pretty good snow to eastern Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and eastern Tennessee.

Just doing a quick extrapolation of how much liquid is available to work with, there could be 0.90" to 0.95" of liquid. Hmmm.... As I said earlier... "very interesting".

This is far from being reality. The computer models will most likely fluctuate several times between now and then and this storm could be nothing. That being said, it has appeared in several runs of the models and seems to be consistently showing up. There is something there, but not sure what that something is just yet.

As always, when it comes to winter storms the track of the storm is everything. 100 miles this way, another 100 miles that way, and we could end up getting squat. We shall see...

I officially start vacation.... ummm... 20 minutes ago, so I will be off weather duties at the station for a little while. Hopefully I'll have time to be able to update the blog a couple times before this storm comes around.

No comments: