Thursday, June 18, 2020

Parts of Indiana register in Drought Monitor

The latest Drought Monitor classifies 70.5% of Indiana as D0 (Abnormally Dry).
(Click image to see a larger version.)
A lack of rain since June 5 is starting to show when looking at lawns around central Indiana.  What was once green grass is now turning brown.  Look under the grass and you can see soil drying out.

This ties for the driest June 5 through June 18 since 1871 in Indianapolis - tying 2012 - with only a trace of rain recorded.

Amazingly, Indianapolis has lost 31% of its annual precipitation surplus in 14 days.  Indy was well ahead of normal as of June 4.  The city was 5.70" above normal.  Today, June 18, the surplus has dropped to 3.89".

A 2-computer model average suggests 1.19" of rain falling through the next seven days.  That equates to 117% the normal for the period.

A couple things to keep in mind:
  1. We are currently losing approximately 0.25" of water from the ground daily from evaporation.  So to keep "even", we need 1" of rain every 4 days.
  2. "Dry breads dry."  When dry conditions begin to set in, it is hard to break.  Often times in this situation computer models will start putting in precipitation 5-7 days out, but as we get closer to those days the models back off on the precipitation.  That is the case with with the above numbers.  The computer models start to introduce rainfall starting Tuesday, 5 days out.
What does this all mean?  If you want to have green grass, or revive your brown, it is time to start watering.  I wouldn't count on Mother Nature to do it for you anytime soon.

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