Severe Storms to Snow

Lots of weather going on across the United States.  Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Midwest this afternoon and there's a potential snow storm moving towards Colorado for early next week.

Check out the video forecast that discusses the severe weather threat in the Midwest and also the threat for snow in Colorado.


There is a piece of energy I am tracking that is currently moving across the northern Pacific Ocean.  This could help spawn an area of low pressure that could dump snow on southern Colorado Tuesday.

As of this afternoon it is still located about 3,000 miles away from Colorado.  A lot can change and computer models will get a better handle on the storm as it gets closer.  The big question right now... Does it take more of a northern track or does it take a southern track?  The southern track would bring more snow to Colorado Springs and Pueblo.  Stay tuned...

Possible Early November Storm to Impact Colorado

It is still very early but wanted to give a little heads up about a possible storm coming to Colorado for the first week of November.

Some of the computer models, the European Forecast Agency and Canadian Forecast Agency, are hinting at a storm developing around November 5.  The track of the storm, cold air wrapping up in it and the potential precipitation with it could make for a good snow maker for southern and southeastern Colorado.

I like to backtrack the storm and see where the piece of energy that will help spawn it is located.  As of this afternoon, the piece of energy has moved off the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia and is moving across the northern Pacific Ocean, approximately 4,000 miles from Colorado.

Computer models project it will slowly move across the northern Pacific and move in to the northwest United States over the weekend.

Watch the following video for more discussion on the storm.


It is a little early to be talking about how much snow but if the European model were to pan out, we could be looking at several inches of snow for the I-25 corridor of southern Colorado.  Stay tuned...

Fall Storm to Impact Colorado

Strong fall storm is moving through the western United States.  Here is my latest video forecast for southern Colorado (recorded at noon).

Space Station Viewing

Taken with iPhone.

The International Space Station's orbit is just right for good viewing in Colorado and the Midwest.  If you haven't stepped outside and watched it fly overheard, I would recommend doing it.  It is a great family activity.  So grab the kids and your husband/wife and go out and watch.

What should you look for?  Initially look for a little dot, similar to a star or a plane.  It will be moving and will not blink.  Usually, it will start to get brighter as it moves overhead.  Also, note what time it is expected to be visible.  It is always on time.  Not a minute early, not a minute late.

Times listed are local time.

SOUTHERN COLORADO (Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Walsenburg, Lamar, La Junta):

• Tuesday
• Time: 8:02pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in NNE sky.
• How long: Visible for 4 minutes.

• Wednesday
• Time: 7:14pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in NNE sky.
• How long: Visible for 6 minutes.

INDIANAPOLIS & COLUMBUS:

• Tuesday
• Time: 8:29pm
• Where: Starts in SW sky and exits in E sky.
• How long: Visible for 4 minutes.

• Wednesday
• Time: 7:41pm
• Where: Starts in SSW sky and exits in ENE sky.
• How long: Visible for 6 minutes.

ST. LOUIS && CAPE GIRARDEAU:

• Tuesday
• Time: 7:28pm
• Where: Starts in SSW sky and exits in ENE sky.
• How long: Visible for 5 minutes.

The Loooong Ranger: October 7 - November 3

Hope everyone had a good weekend.  This morning before going in to work I took a few minutes to look over the latest run of the experimental loooooooong range European computer forecast model.  This model looks out over the next 720 hours or approximately 30 days.

Here are a few observations from last week's run.

• West coast storm develops October 9.
• Midwest warm-up (Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky) October 11-15.
• Shot of cold air coming down from Canada into Great Lakes (Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) October 20-23.
• Western U.S. ridge develops October 20-23.  Should lead to above normal temperatures.
• Shot of cold air from Canada:
• Northwest United States November 2.
• Colorado November 3.
• Central Plains November 3-4.

The model suggests several smaller scale storms moving through at a quick rate over the next month.  Small enough not to mention details as it is important to look at the overall pattern when looking at long range data.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Long Range Weather Outlook Sept 28 - Oct 28

Just sat down and took a look at the latest data from the experimental loooooooong range computer model.  The computer model looks out over roughly the next 30 days.

Here are a few observations from last week's run.

• Warm-up for the Ohio Valley (Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky) October 2-4.
• Big storm develops for NW United States October 2-3.
• Stormy and then cold for Colorado October 3-5.
• Line of storms moves through the Midwest October 5-6.
• Warm-up for Colorado October 6-8.
• West Coast storm develops October 10.
• Stormy and then cooler for Colorado October 12.
• Shot of cold air comes in to western United States October 20.
• Shot of cold air moves through Colorado October 19-23.
• BIG shot of cold air comes down from Canada over US/Canada border October 24.
• This brings cold air to Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana (St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis) October 25-27.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Warmth Returns to Colorado

As first advertised last Monday, today (Saturday) is the coolest day of the week.  Highs topped out in the 60°s and 70°s across southern Colorado.  Officially, Colorado Springs hit 67° and Pueblo hit 73°.

The cool down will be short lived as temperatures begin to rebound tomorrow as winds turn out of the west and skies turn 100% sunny.  Highs will be in the 70°s and 80°s across the KOAA viewing area.

Mainly sunny skies will prevail for much of the upcoming week.  Forecasters' eyes are looking at a storm that will bring a cold front through Colorado Thursday or Friday.  This front should be a little more potent than yesterday's front.

Right now computer models are a little divided as to when the front passes.  Currently, I'm siding with the front moving through southern and southeastern Colorado Thursday afternoon/evening.  I expect to see falling temperatures Thursday.  Behind the front, there is a chance we could see a little snow, especially in higher elevations.  I think it is entirely possible Colorado Springs could see a little snow early Friday morning.  Stay tuned... - Meteorologist John Dissauer

More Heavy Rain Overnight in Colorado

...Potential for another round of heavy rain overnight...

A Flash Flood Watch continues for counties along the I-25 corridor until 6am MT Friday.

At 10,000 feet above the ground winds are blowing out of the south.  The stream of wind is blowing out of the south at 25-45mph.  The southerly wind is acting as a conveyor belt transporting moisture from New Mexico and north central Mexico and moving it in to southern Colorado.

Water vapor imagery showing moisture located over New Mexico and Mexico.  Green arrows indicate winds at 10,000 feet above sea level.

With ample moisture in place, little waves of energy are moving in to Colorado from an upper-level low pressure system that is located over Nevada/Utah.  The energy is helping to spark off showers and thunderstorms.

Computer models project a couple waves of energy coming to southern Colorado later Thursday evening and again during the early morning hours Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move north across the viewing area.

Computer models continue to be bullish on rainfall numbers.  Generally speaking, the models are projecting 1" to 3" of rain for portions of southern and southeastern Colorado through Friday morning.  Some locations, in El Paso County, Pueblo County and Teller County could see 3" to 5" of rain with a few localized amounts 6"+ not out of the question.

Overnight temperatures will only fall off to the 50°s and 60°s.

Friday will see another chance for showers and thunderstorms although, they should not be as heavy as the rain Thursday night/Friday morning.  However, with already saturated ground any additional rain could have flash flooding potential.  High temperatures Friday will be in the 60°s and 70°s.

Chances of rain will continue through the weekend but it appears southern Colorado should begin to dry out early next week.

FRIDAY'S NORMALS:

Colorado Springs:
High: 76°
Low: 49°
Precipitation: 0.04"

Pueblo:
High: 83°
Low: 49°
Precipitation: 0.03"