Heat Taking Aim on Central US

The big weather story this week continues to be the heat taking aim on the central United States, including eastern Colorado.

An area of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere has taken residence over the central Plains.  Temperatures under and near the high have climbed in to the 90°s and in some cases 100°s.  Along with the high temperatures, humidity is high across the central U.S.  Heat indices (the feels like temperature) hace climbed to near 110° as far north as Minnesota.

The upper-level high will slowly move east over the next 48 hours.  Eventually, it will begin to retrograde to the west.

As the upper-level high controls the weather pattern over eastern Colorado, monsoon moisture will remain over Arizona and Utah.  Later this week some of the moisture will begin to return to the mountains of southern Colorado and eventually the I-25 corridor.  I introduce a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for places like Canon City and Woodland Park starting Wednesday.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND

As of now, computer models are suggesting there will be enough moisture around southern/southeastern Colorado for there to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Also, with the moisture around, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, especially for areas closer to the foothills.  Temperatures will also be held down due to the clouds and showers/thunderstorms.  Highs will likely be in the 80°s.

TUESDAY'S NORMALS

Colorado Springs:
High: 80°
Low: 54°
Precipitation: 0.09"

Pueblo:
High: 88°
Low: 56°
Precipitation: 0.06"

Late Season Heat Wave

The big weather story this week is a late season heat wave taking aim on the central United States.  Record high temperatures could fall anywhere from Colorado to Indiana.

An upper-level high pressure dome will setup shop over the middle U.S. early this week.   High pressure aloft allows for air to sink and compress.  When air compresses, it increases in temperature.

Temperatures will reach the century mark. Temperatures in southern and southeastern Colorado will top out in the upper 80°s to lower 100°s through Friday.

Computer models suggest that the heat should begin to ease for the central Plains around September 1 and models suggest the heat could continue through at least Labor Day Weekend for the Midwest.

The upper-level high will initially push monsoon moisture west in to western Arizona and Utah and take it away from southern/southeastern Colorado. Later in the week moisture will begin to come back to Colorado. The moisture will allow for a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the mountains west of I-25 starting Wednesday.

As for Monday, expect to see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies across the KOAA viewing area. Highs will top out in the upper 80°s to upper 90°s. Colorado Springs should top out at 88° and Pueblo should see a high temperature of 95°.

MONDAY'S NORMALS:

Colorado Springs:
High: 80°
Low: 54°
Precipitation: 0.09"

Pueblo:
High: 88°
Low: 56°
Precipitation: 0.06"

Heavy Rains to Southern Colorado

Here is a closer look at what to expect Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening.

Heavy rain will be possible through Thursday night.  Flash Flood Watches are in effect through Thursday.

Southern Colorado Weather Update

A look at the weather forecast for southern Colorado.  Summer heat today then rain moves in for the end of the week and the weekend.

Westward Ho

I apologize, it has been a looooooong time since I have posted a new blog post.  A lot has gone on in the last six months.

After a 21 month break from working full-time in television weather I decided to get back in.  In April, I accepted an offer to work as a meteorologist for KOAA-TV, the NBC affiliate in Colorado Springs-Pueblo, Colorado.  It was a tough decision moving from the Midwest but I thought I'd give this move a chance and see what it is like living/forecasting 6,000 feet above sea level.

For those who are in the Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Indiana that read my blog, don't worry I will continue to send out weather updates, especially for the fun winter storms.  But along with Midwest weather there will also be information about southern Colorado here on "New at Dis Hour".  Think of it as adding on new wing to the house. ;)

I've had several weather "adventures", ranging from deadly tornadoes to historic wildfires, since moving to Colorado which I'll write about over the coming weeks.

Comments from Conference Call

Just got off a conference call with forecasters from the  National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky.  They brought up some very good things to consider, especially when it comes to nighttime severe weather.

Here are a couple of comments Warning Coordination Meteorologist Rick Shanklin made during the call that I found noteworthy to pass along.

• Have more than one way to be warned of severe weather overnight.  Along with a weather radio, call family/friends that are in the path of the warned storm.  They found that having someone be warned by a phone call made the person(s) more likely to “wake-up” and take action.
• Leave mobile homes when a watch is issued for your area instead of waiting for a warning.  This is especially true with overnight storms.  71% of deaths from tornadoes in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and southwest Indiana occurred in mobile homes.

TIMING

New data continues to come in from high-resolution computer model data.  Here are windows of when the RPM computer model is projecting storms to arrive.

• St. Louis: A few storms around 7pm CT.  Main line arrives around 8pm CT.
• Poplar Bluff:  Line of storms arrive between 9:00pm-10:00pm CT.
• Cape Girardeau:  Line of storms arrive between 9:30pm-10:30pm CT.

Note:  These are projected time from a single run of a computer model.  These are definitely NOT set in stone.

Nighttime Severe Weather

Severe weather at night is never a good thing.  People are asleep and often don’t have a way to be alerted to warnings.

Unfortunately, severe weather often finds a way of happening at night in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.  Northern Illinois University has published findings from research of night time severe weather.

• The public is less likely to receive warnings issued at night.
• The public is more likely to be in more vulnerable housing and building structures at night.
• Mobile homes are the leading location for tornado fatalities.
• Tornado deaths are enhanced during the late fall and winter.
• Nighttime tornadoes are twice as likely to kill as daytime tornadoes.

The region I mentioned earlier has among the highest percentage of nighttime tornadoes and nighttime tornado fatalities of anywhere in the United States.

According to the National Weather Service in Paducah, 43 of the 52 tornado deaths since 1996 have occurred at night.  Of those, 69% occurred between midnight and sunrise.  Thirty-seven of the 52 tornado deaths were in mobile homes.  Eleven occurred in permanent homes.

We say this not to scare you, however we do want you to take note that nighttime severe weather can be dangerous and we want you to keep alert to changing weather.

I think the most important take-away from the finding by NIU is that nighttime tornadoes are twice as likely to kill as daytime tornadoes.

A special thanks to Rick Shanklin at the National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky for publishing the findings.

11:30am Weather Update

All eyes are focused on tonight’s severe weather potential.  I’m going to try to keep this direct and to the point with information you can use and not get too much in the weeds of meteorology for tonight’s setup.

First, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee to a “Moderate Risk” in their latest severe weather outlook.  Also, eastern/central Missouri, central Illinois and much of Indiana are included in a “Slight Risk”.

The above outlook is valid through 6am CT Wednesday.

The main threat from tonight’s storms will be damaging wind.  Winds 5,000 feet above the surface will be roaring at 70-90 mph.  Any thunderstorm that gets going will easily interact with that wind and could bring it down to the surface.

Here is the latest outlook for damaging thunderstorm winds.

Note the hatched area.  That indicates a 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 74 mph or greater within 25 miles of any point within the area.

I know many of you will not like to hear the next threat but yes, having a couple tornadoes is a real possibility.  Here is the latest outlook concerning the probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point.

Again, note the hatched area.  That indicates a 10% or greater probability of strong tornadoes (EF2 – EF5) within 25 miles of any point within the area.

Hail is also a threat but I believe it is much lower compared to the other two modes of severe weather.

TIMING

Here are a couple of images from the 12z run of the high-resolution 4km RPM computer model.  Again, these are not radar images, they are what the computer model projects the radar will look like.

7pm CT Tuesday:

12:30am CT Wednesday:

4am CT Wednesday:

Yesterday on Twitter I mentioned the area I "liked" for storms tonight.  I've made a slight adjustment but it isn't much.  The area I like for storms tonight is a corridor that runs from Chester, Illinois to Malden, Missouri to Star City, Arkansas.
 
FREAK-OUT-METER

• Southeast Missouri: 5/6
• Missouri Bootheel: 6
• Southern Illinois: 5/6
• Western Kentucky: 5
• Eastern Arkansas:6/7
• Western Tennessee: 6
• St. Louis metro: 4
• Central Indiana: 4
• Southern Indiana: 4/5

BOTTOM LINE

• I expect tornado watches to be issued late today and overnight.
• Warnings are likely anytime from late this afternoon through early AM Wednesday.
• It is IMPERATIVE that you have a way to be alerted to severe weather this evening/overnight.
• Take a couple of minutes and think about what you need to do and where you need to go if a tornado warning is issued this evening or overnight.  After the kids get home from school, discuss it with them, but make sure not to scare them.
• If you don't know what county you live in, take 30 seconds and find out.

I am going to publish another post later this afternoon concerning severe weather at night.