It's Going to Be Hot!

It is eerily strange, but most computer models are in agreement that temperatures will surge past 90° across this Midwest this weekend.

Temperatures above 90° isn't uncommon but this will be the first time of the season with mid/late summer heat.  Most people aren't used to this kind of heat just yet.  And you know the old saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity.", it will be true this weekend.  Dew points are expected to get above 70°.  This could push the heat index to 100° or higher.

It's all about the upper levels of the atmosphere and compressional heating.  We are going to see an early season HOT DOME settle in over the Mississippi Valley.  The area of high pressure will remain relatively stationary or drift slightly to the east through the weekend.

If you think about it, high pressure means there is a lot of pressure.  When you squeeze air under high pressure, air temperature will increase.  That will be in play this weekend.

Let's take a look at what various computer models are showing.  Here is a look at temperatures forecast by last night's run of the computer models (0z runs).

Canadian Forecast Agency Model for 1pm CT Sunday afternoon:

European Forecast Agency Model 1pm CT Saturday afternoon:

European Forecast Agency Model 1pm CT Sunday afternoon:

As I mentioned, the humidity will play a big factor.  Humidity is a look at how much moisture is in the air.  A more accurate measure of the moisture in the air is the dew point.  The higher the dew point, the higher the moisture content.

Here is the latest run of NOAA's Global Forecast model showing dew points at 7pm CT Sunday.

If you go through and do the calculation for the heat index (feels like temperature), a temperature of 96° and a dew point of 71° results in a heat index of 103°.  A temperature of 94° and a dew point of 70° results in a heat index of 100°.

Needless to say, it is going to be hot around the Ohio Valley this weekend.

Of note, there is a HUGE race going on that will draw hundreds of thousands of spectators going on Sunday.  The Indianapolis 500.  Temperatures in the mid-90°s and high humidity could be dangerous for people attending the race.  If you are going, be sure to drink lots of water and/or sports drinks.  (Yes, I know lots of liquids will be consumed, that is why I suggested water/sports drinks. haha)

It is looks like this could be the hottest Indy 500 ever.  The hottest Indy 500 was in 1937 when the high temperature was 92°.  In fact, it is rare that the mercury reads 90° or higher for the race.  It has only happened five previous times (5.2% of the time).

Previous Indianapolis 500's with temperatures over 90°:

• 1937 - 92°
• 1953 - 91°
• 1919 - 91°
• 1978 - 90°
• 1977 - 90°

*Source: Indianapolis National Weather Service

Turning on the Heat

All indications are pointing to a hot, humid Memorial Day weekend for the Ohio Valley including southeast Missouri, Illinois, southern Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee thanks to an upper level hot-dome taking residence as seen in the computer model image.

Above is the European Agency's forecast model looking specifically at the 500mb level (approximately 18,000 feet) for Saturday afternoon.

Last Chance to see the Space Station

Final good opportunity to see the International Space Station tonight (for a couple of weeks). Locations, times, and directions in sky are below.

• Bloomington, IN: 9:00pm (visible 6 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Cape Girardeau: 8:00pm (visible 6 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Carbondale: 8:00pm (visible 6 minutes) SW --> NE
• Champaign, IL: 8:00pm (visible 6 minutes) SW --> NE
• Chicago: 8:01pm (visible 6 minutes) SW --> ENE
• Columbus, IN: 9:01pm (visible 6 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Harrisburg, IL: 8:00pm (visible 6 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Indianapolis: 9:01pm (visible 6 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Lafayette, IN: 9:01pm (visible 6 minutes) SW --> NE
• Paducah: 8:00pm (visible 6 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Poplar Bluff: 7:59pm (visible 6 minutes) SW --> NE
• St. Louis: 8:00pm (visible 6 minutes) SW --> NE

International Space Station Sighting Opportunities

Last night was a great night to watch the International Space Station fly over the Midwest. There is another opportunity tonight.

Below are times and directions in sky the space station can be seen (start/exit the sky).

• Cape Girardeau: 8:58pm (visible for 3 minutes) WNW --> NNE
• Carbondale: 8:58pm (visible for 3 minutes) WNW --> NNE
• Chicago: 8:57pm (visible for 5 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Columbus, IN: 9:57pm (visible for 5 minutes) W --> NNE
• Indianapolis: 9:57pm (visible for 5 minutes) W --> NNE
• Lafayette, IN: 9:57pm (visible for 5 minutes) WSW --> NE
• Paducah: 8:58pm (visible for 3 minutes) NW --> NNE
• Poplar Bluff: 8:58pm (visible for 3 minutes) WNW --> NNE
• St. Louis: 8:56pm (visible for 6 minutes) WSW --> NE

There will also be another opportunity a little earlier in the evening Thursday.

Thunderstorms Today

Storm Prediction Center has put out a "Slight Risk" for severe storms in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas.



Storms will be capable of producing large hail & damaging wind during the afternoon & evening.

- Posted from my iPhone

Storms Possible Today

It is warm, it is muggy and it is spring. Know what that means? Yes, we could see some thunderstorms bubbling up this afternoon across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.

There aren't any strong features moving through the atmosphere to indicate we'll see widespread severe weather but the Storm Prediction Center has put out a "Slight Risk" for parts of the Midwest.

The outlook is valid through 7am CT Thursday.

The main threat appears to be large hail from a few storms that develop. A couple thunderstorms could also produce some gusty winds.

Not all of the computer models are producing thunderstorms across the Midwest this afternoon/tonight. However, a high-resolution computer model (4km) is bringing a line of thunderstorms across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky.


The model starts thunderstorm development around noon for south-central Missouri. A couple of stronger cells are indicated by the model in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois around 3:00pm CT.

Tornado Watch #57

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #57 that is in effect for parts Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky and Missouri. The watch is in effect until 7:00pm ET/6:00pm CT.


This is a PDS Tornado Watch. PDS stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation.

In the discussion of the watch product issued by SPC, they say "...A volatiles environment is developing across the northward expanding warm sector...". They also mention the possibility of strong, long-tracked tornadoes.

I hate to say it but looking over the atmospheric ingredients, southeastern Illinois and western Kentucky are looking explosive for thunderstorm development between 11am-1pm CT.

Moderate Risk

This will be quick as I'm about to get some sleep...

The Storm Prediction Center has just published their latest Day 1 Outlook that is valid through 6am CT Saturday.


They have now included parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky in the "Moderate Risk". They have also taken the "Moderate Risk" area further north in central Indiana to include Indianapolis.

A "Slight Risk" continues for eastern/southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee, etc.

Where storms finally decide to initialize or start will be key to how things play out tomorrow.


- Posted from my iPhone