As I normally do on Saturday before heading into work, I took quick glance at a couple of the computer models to see what might be coming this week. It looks like it could be warm to start the week!
Below is a look at NOAA's Global forecast model. It is from the 7am (12z) run for Cape Girardeau, Missouri. I plotted temperature (red line) and precipitation (green bars).
Notice the warm-up by the model Monday and Tuesday. Not plotted (but I looked), dew points climb to the upper 60's and maybe 70°. That is when we start to get in to "muggly"* weather.
This model is showing rain returning to the area Tuesday evening and lasting through Thursday morning.
*Before you write me, call me, or email me... Yes I do know that "muggly" or "mugglies" isn't a word in the dictionary. It is a word that is made up. It is a combination of muggy and ugly. Hence, when it gets really hot and humid, I call it muggly.
It isn't out of the question that we could see a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
The Storm Prediction Center has the above mentioned areas under a "Slight Risk" in their latest Day 1 Outlook. The outlook runs through 7am Sunday.
The main threat will be large hail and damaging winds.
In order for there to be a few stronger/severe thunderstorms, we will need to get rid of some of the cloud cover left over from morning showers. If we can get some sunshine in the area, that will allow the atmosphere to destabilize.
Vacation is over and I'll be heading in to work in a couple of hours.
If you live in central Indiana and use Twitter you'll want to pay attention to this.
I helped setup Brian Wilkes, chief meteorologist at WXIN Fox59 and a really good friend, with a Twitter account Wednesday. He is jumping in head first and is going to be sending out weather updates.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, there is a "Slight Risk" of severe thunderstorms today in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and Arkansas. Below is the latest Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.
The main threat appears to be damaging wind and large hail this afternoon and evening.
Sorry about the lack of posts the last several days. I have been on vacation (still am).
I thought I'd pass along what the computer models are showing for the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend.
Below are graphics from NOAA's Global Forecast model. When looking at the graphic time runs from right to left. The red lines represent air temperature. The green bars represent accumulated rainfall.
Cape Girardeau, Missouri:
The forecast model is pumping out a total of 0.55" of rain Friday through Monday.
If you are an Indianapolis 500 fan, you might be interested to find out what fans/drivers can expect for Sunday's race. It looks like pop up thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The race is scheduled to begin at 1pm ET.
The forecast model is pumping out 0.27" of rainfall for Sunday. Through the holiday weekend (Friday-Monday), the model is pumping out 0.94" of rain.
If you have outside plans for Memorial Day weekend, you might want to have Plan B in place.
All forecast models are hinting at a tropical system developing over southern Florida Tuesday. The storm will then move out over the Gulf of Mexico and tap in to more moisture. Eventually, the storm will make its way onshore along the Gulf Coast.
It appears that the storm will then move north/northwest later in the week. As it does so, it will throw moisture up towards southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. It looks like rain could start to move in as early as Friday afternoon.
The European forecast agency's forecast model (ECMWF) positions the center of the storm over central Arkansas by Sunday morning. This will put the area in a position to see continued showers and thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In fact, one forecast model pumps out 1.3" of rain for Cape Girardeau, Missouri Saturday and Sunday.
If you have outside plans for the holiday weekend, keep an eye on the forecast over the next couple of days and hope things change.
Ok, not the official start of summer, but my official start to summer. The singing of "Back Home Again in Indiana" by Jim Nabors at the Indianapolis 500.
The pageantry before the race. Cars turning laps at a 2.5 mile oval in 40 seconds and driving at 220mph. Watching the race with 359,999 other fans at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. There is nothing like it.
If you have never been, do yourself a favor and go. I think EVERYONE should attend the Indianapolis 500 at least once in their life.
