Severe Weather Threat Thursday in to Friday Morning

While most people's attention is on the current COVID19 situation impacting the country and the world, I don't want you to lose site of what is happening with weather in the Midwest.

An area of low pressure is projected to move out of the Rocky Mountains tonight and sweep across the central United States.  The low is going to bring energy, along with a couple fronts, allowing for thunderstorm development.  Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe Thursday in to early Friday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has several states included in a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms Thursday morning through Friday morning.

I've tried to narrow it down to an area that the latest data suggests has the "greatest" risk for severe storms between 3pm EDT Thursday and 5am EDT Friday.  The threat moves west to east over the time period.

Wind appears to be the main threat from storms that develop.  However, data suggests there is a tornado threat from storms.  I've highlighted (orange) an area where I think the highest chance for tornadoes to develop.  While the window is long - from Thursday morning through Friday morning - that window is not for the entire area.  Similar to the image above, the threat will begin Thursday morning in eastern Oklahoma and spread east with storms.

The threat transitions to late Thursday night in to Friday morning for southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana and northern Kentucky.  That means for some the threat will be overnight Thursday in to Friday.

I can't stress enough having a way to be alerted to severe weather warnings, especially late at night.  The best way is to have a working NOAA weather radio.  If you don't, it may be worthwhile to have someone stay up and keep an eye on the weather via television and wake up the family if a Tornado Warning is issued.

I'll post more updates and more data becomes available.

Severe Weather Preparedness Week: Tornado Warning vs Tornado Watch

Do you know the difference between a Tornado Warning and a Tornado Watch?  Many people do not.  It all comes down to “when to take action” and “when to prepare to take action”.  Here is an explanation of what each means and what you should do when one is issued.

TORNADO WARNING

A Tornado Warning is issued by your local National Weather Service office.  The warning is issued when either a tornado has been spotted or doppler radar indicates a tornado is imminent.  Most importantly, it is the time to TAKE ACTION.

Take shelter indoors immediately.  Go in to the location in your home, work, school, shopping mall or other building’s location designated as your tornado shelter.  Oftentimes it is a basement or an interior room (bathroom, closet, or hallway).  You want to stay away from windows and put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.  If you need help determining a good location, check out this page from FEMA.

Tornado Warnings are issued for individual storms, known as storm-based warnings or polygon warnings.  However, for most, the warning is displayed for counties.  Make sure you know which county you live, work, and frequent so when a warning is issued, you know if you are included in the warned area.

TORNADO WATCH

A Tornado Watch is issued by the Storm Prediction Center when conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes.  When a Tornado Watch is issued, it is often in effect for six hours.

There are times when conditions exist that could produce strong tornadoes.  In this event, the Storm Prediction Center can issue a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch.  These are issued a few times a year.

A Tornado Watch is your “heads up” alert.  Usually, there is not an immediate threat, however it is time to prepare in case a Tornado Warning is issued within the next couple of hours.

Right now is the time to come up with a plan of where to take shelter if a Tornado Warning is issued.  Once coming up with the plan make sure you go over it with your family.  Also take a few minutes to discuss where to go if at school, at work, at the mall, or at a park.  While you don't have to plan for every single location, get the idea of where it is safe to go so you can quickly figure it out wherever you area.

Work Week Forecast for Cape Girardeau

I'm going to start putting 7-day forecasts together for Cape Girardeau/southeast Missouri.  It has been a few years since I put specific numbers to that area, so it may take a little bit of time to re-calibrate my forecasting for that area, so bear with me.

Latest data suggests low clouds may obscure the sun for much of the day Sunday.  Showers return to the area Monday.  Then there is a nice warm-up coming for Tuesday with partly cloudy skies.  Rain chances return starting Wednesday, continuing until a cold front tries to pass through the area going in to the weekend.

Work Week Forecast for Indianapolis

I'm going to continue putting out 7-day outlooks for central Indiana.

Warmer temperatures move back in to the Hoosier state Sunday.  We'll start the day with clouds but we should have more sun by afternoon.

A few sprinkles will be possible Monday.  Then we turn breezy and warmer Tuesday.

Moisture returns to the state mid-week but it will fall as rain as temperatures will remain above freezing through the end of the work week.  A cold front is projected to move through the area sometime late Thursday or Friday afternoon.  That will cool things down going in to next weekend.

Announcement

You may have noticed different looking graphics on my social media accounts and if you live in central Indiana you may have noticed I was not on the CBS4 news last weekend. There is a reason for those things. After five years working at CBS4/FOX59 my last day was February 29.

I want to thank you for allowing me in to your homes on television and on your mobile screens. I also want to let you know the times I broke in to your your favorite shows was done in an effort to help keep you and your family safe in times of threatening weather. I will continue posting weather information for the various areas I have lived/worked around the country, as I have since the beginning of social media, on Twitter (www.twitter.com/johndissauer), on my Facebook page, and I will likely be posting more often here. What is next for me, I do not know. I am hoping to remain in the central Indiana area as this is home for me – a born and raised Hoosier – but am open to job opportunities. If you know of anything you think would be a good fit, let me know!

- John

Severe weather risk today identified

Those in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky should keep an eye on the weather late afternoon through evening. Suspect a Tornado Watch will be issued.

Latest data suggests the greatest risk for severe weather today will be in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.  I'm looking at a window between 2pm CDT and 9pm CDT.

While damaging wind and large hail remain a threat from thunderstorms, there is also the potential for a few tornadoes in the highlighted area - some of which could be strong.

I suspect the Storm Prediction Center will issue a Tornado Watch this afternoon for part of the highlighted area.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter for further updates.

What to do when a Tornado Warning is issued

In light of Monday's storms and the fact that we are moving in to peak tornado season I thought it would be good to go over what you should do when a Tornado Warning is issued. Watching this 1min 45sec video could save your life!

Please share with family and friends.

One additional suggestion if you are in a car and a Tornado Warning is issued. First and foremost you should find a nearby sturdy building and go inside. The recommendation in the video is for situations where you don't have time for that and you can see the tornado.

We need your help, become a storm spotter by attending a free class

Severe weather can happen anytime of the year but we are quickly approaching Indiana's peak severe weather season.  There have been many technological advances made in the field of meteorology for predicting and detecting tornadoes and thunderstorms but there is nothing better than a pair of eyes.  This is where we can use your help.

The National Weather Service (NWS) will begin teaching storm spotter classes in counties around central Indiana over the next two and a half months.  The classes are a couple hours long, are taught by NWS meteorologists, and are FREE to attend.

The first class is this Tuesday, February 18 at the Rush County Library in Rushville.  The class begins at 6:30 p.m.

Additional classes will be taught in Carroll, Jennings, Decatur, Marion, Randolph, and Johnson counties through the first week of March.

Many more classes will be taught in just about every county of central Indiana through late April.  You can find a full list of locations, dates and times by visiting the National Weather Service's storm spotter page.