Announcement

You may have noticed different looking graphics on my social media accounts and if you live in central Indiana you may have noticed I was not on the CBS4 news last weekend. There is a reason for those things. After five years working at CBS4/FOX59 my last day was February 29.

I want to thank you for allowing me in to your homes on television and on your mobile screens. I also want to let you know the times I broke in to your your favorite shows was done in an effort to help keep you and your family safe in times of threatening weather. I will continue posting weather information for the various areas I have lived/worked around the country, as I have since the beginning of social media, on Twitter (www.twitter.com/johndissauer), on my Facebook page, and I will likely be posting more often here. What is next for me, I do not know. I am hoping to remain in the central Indiana area as this is home for me – a born and raised Hoosier – but am open to job opportunities. If you know of anything you think would be a good fit, let me know!

- John

Severe weather risk today identified

Those in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky should keep an eye on the weather late afternoon through evening. Suspect a Tornado Watch will be issued.

Latest data suggests the greatest risk for severe weather today will be in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.  I'm looking at a window between 2pm CDT and 9pm CDT.

While damaging wind and large hail remain a threat from thunderstorms, there is also the potential for a few tornadoes in the highlighted area - some of which could be strong.

I suspect the Storm Prediction Center will issue a Tornado Watch this afternoon for part of the highlighted area.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter for further updates.

What to do when a Tornado Warning is issued

In light of Monday's storms and the fact that we are moving in to peak tornado season I thought it would be good to go over what you should do when a Tornado Warning is issued. Watching this 1min 45sec video could save your life!

Please share with family and friends.

One additional suggestion if you are in a car and a Tornado Warning is issued. First and foremost you should find a nearby sturdy building and go inside. The recommendation in the video is for situations where you don't have time for that and you can see the tornado.

We need your help, become a storm spotter by attending a free class

Severe weather can happen anytime of the year but we are quickly approaching Indiana's peak severe weather season.  There have been many technological advances made in the field of meteorology for predicting and detecting tornadoes and thunderstorms but there is nothing better than a pair of eyes.  This is where we can use your help.

The National Weather Service (NWS) will begin teaching storm spotter classes in counties around central Indiana over the next two and a half months.  The classes are a couple hours long, are taught by NWS meteorologists, and are FREE to attend.

The first class is this Tuesday, February 18 at the Rush County Library in Rushville.  The class begins at 6:30 p.m.

Additional classes will be taught in Carroll, Jennings, Decatur, Marion, Randolph, and Johnson counties through the first week of March.

Many more classes will be taught in just about every county of central Indiana through late April.  You can find a full list of locations, dates and times by visiting the National Weather Service's storm spotter page.

How weather can impact voter turnout on election day

Believe it or not, there are things meteorologists track that can have an impact on voter turnout.

A 2007 study published in The Journal of Politics examined the impact weather has had on voter turnout for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000.  The authors of the paper state, "we find the linkage (to the weather-turnout hypothesis) not only to be statistically significant, but sometimes meaningful as well."

The findings suggest election day rain reduces voter turnout in a county by 0.9% per inch above the daily normal amount.  Not surprisingly, snow has a negative impact on voter turnout.  For every inch of snow that falls, above the specific day's normal amount, voter turnout drops 0.5% in a county.

The paper cites the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections as key examples.  Both elections ended in narrow margins, making several states pivotal Electoral College.

As an example, the 1960 presidential election was close in popular vote.  Only 119,450 votes (0.1%) separated Kennedy and Nixon.  Kennedy won the popular vote in Illinois by 8,858 votes.  There were allegations of voter fraud in Illinois during the election.  The weather was also relatively decent that day.  High temperatures were in the middle/upper 40°s across the state and light rain was recorded over the northern third.

If there had been more rain, deterring people from putting their vote in the ballot box, national results might have been impacted.  When the authors ran a simulation, taking the maximum rainfall for that election day in recorded history,  the results of the presidential election would have been different. Richard Nixon would have received an additional 106 electoral votes, thus winning the 1960 presidential election and becoming the President of the United States eight years earlier than his eventual election in 1968.

The authors also look at the opposite side.  What if there were dry conditions around the country on election day.  They found that it would have impacted the Electoral College in 1992 with Bill Clinton winning North Carolina and again in 2000 with Al Gore winning Florida, resulting in Al Gore winning the presidential election.  However, when they considered a wet 2000 election day, George W. Bush would have won by a wider margin.

Tornado Warning vs Tornado Watch

Do you know the difference between a Tornado Warning and a Tornado Watch?  Many people do not.  It all comes down to "when to take action" and "when to prepare to take action".  Here is an explanation of what each means and what you should do when one is issued.

A Tornado Warning is issued by your local National Weather Service office.  The warning is issued when either a tornado has been spotted or doppler radar indicates a tornado is imminent.  Most importantly, it is the time to TAKE ACTION.

Take shelter indoors immediately.  Go in to the location in your home, work, school, shopping mall or other building's location designated as your tornado shelter.  Oftentimes it is a basement or an interior room (bathroom, closet, or hallway).  You want to stay away from windows and put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.  If you need help determining a good location, check out this page from FEMA.

Tornado Warnings are issued for individual storms, known as storm-based warnings or polygon warnings.  However, for most, the warning is displayed for counties.  Make sure you know which county you live, work, and frequent so when a warning is issued, you know if you are included in the warned area.

TORNADO WATCH

A Tornado Watch is issued by the Storm Prediction Center when conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes.  When a Tornado Watch is issued, it is often in effect for six hours.

There are times when conditions exist that could produce strong tornadoes.  In this event, the Storm Prediction Center can issue a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch.  These are issued a few times a year.

A Tornado Watch is your "heads up" alert.  Usually, there is not an immediate threat, however it is time to prepare in case a Tornado Warning is issued within the next couple of hours.

This is the time to plan where to take shelter if a Tornado Warning is issued.

Make sure to enable your way of receiving Tornado Warnings.  Also, it is the time to keep an eye on weather conditions and have a way to monitor weather conditions - monitoring the latest from a trusted weather source.

How the eclipse may affect temperatures

It will be interesting to see what happens with temperatures on the afternoon of the eclipse.

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Indianapolis pulled up data from the last annular eclipse to take place in 1994.  The temperature dropped 4° in an  hour when the maximum eclipse occurred over Lafayette.  The moon appears smaller in an annular eclipse, so it does not cover all of the sun.  So it is conceivable the temperature may drop 5° to 7° during the peak of the eclipse.

Right now we are forecasting a high of 90° for Monday.  Since the eclipse is happening during the peak heating of the day I'm curious to see if that keeps the temperatures from reaching their full potential.

Solar Eclipse: Closer look at cloud cover projections

We are now less than five days away from the much anticipated Solar Eclipse.  In the Weather Department our eyes are focused on what the weather will be like for the day.

As we get closer computer models usually come in to better agreement as to what cloud cover and precipitation will be.  So far, the two medium-range computer models we use are at odds.

GFS's cloud cover and precipitation rate projection at 2pm ET Monday.

ECMWF's cloud cover and precipitation rate projection at 2pm ET Monday.

The two computer models we are looking at is NOAA's global forecast model (GFS) and the European Forecast Agency's global forecast model (ECMWF).

The best viewing of the solar eclipse will be with less cloud cover.  For that we want to the total cloud cover percentage as close to 0% as possible.  While you may be able to see some of the eclipse through the clouds, the more clouds overhead, the less you will see.

As you can see in the images above both computer models project clouds around in the Midwest on the afternoon of the 21st.

Here's a more specific look at the projected total cloud cover percentage at 2pm Monday, August 21 around central Indiana.

Bloomington, In:

• GFS - 78%
• ECMWF - 40%

Cape Girardeau, Mo:

• GFS - 45%
• ECMWF - 64%

Carbondale, Il:

• GFS - 56%
• ECMWF - 34%

Columbus, In:

• GFS - 79%
• ECMWF - 66%

Farmington, Mo:

• GFS - 83%
• ECMWF - 39%

Indianapolis, In:

• GFS - 79%
• ECMWF - 81%

Kokomo, In:

• GFS - 98%
• ECMWF - 52%

Lafayette, In:

• GFS - 95%
• ECMWF - 78%

Muncie, In:

• GFS - 90%
• ECMWF - 58%

Paducah, Ky:

• GFS - 43%
• ECMWF - 83%

St. Louis, Mo:

• GFS - 99%
• ECMWF - 29%

Understand that there are another 35 computer model runs to go before the eclipse gets here.  And that's just for these two computer models.  Once we get within 72-hours of the event, additional computer models will chime in with what they think will happen with the weather conditions.