Remember that a severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms capable of producing hail 1" in diameter or larger and/or 58mph winds or greater.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #46
The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #46 for parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The watch is in effect until 2:00am CT Monday.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms capable of producing hail 1" in diameter or larger and/or 58mph winds or greater.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms capable of producing hail 1" in diameter or larger and/or 58mph winds or greater.
I Haven't Bought In Yet
I'm in a "wait and see" mode this evening. The Storm Prediction Center and a few hi-resolution computer forecast models are hinting at storms moving through the KFVS viewing area tonight. However, I'm not sold on the idea of us seeing storms overnight.
First the setup: We've got a cold front that stretches from Iowa to Oklahoma. Ahead of the front we are starting to see thunderstorms develop. In fact, a Tornado Watch is in effect until 11:00pm for the northern part of Missouri, western Illinois, and southeast Iowa.
Here is a look StormTeam Digital Doppler. The image was taken around 5:30pm CT.
The Tornado Watch is indicated in the red outline. The yellow outlines indicate Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
You can see the storms that have popped from Kansas City to Kirksville. The main threat from the storms that have developed is large hail so far.
As I mentioned, the Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye on things for this evening. They have all of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee in a "Slight Risk" area for severe storms. The outlook is good through 7am CT Monday morning.
In the discussion from SPC, they cite a few high-resolution models that keep hinting at thunderstorm development later tonight. Let's take a look at some of the data from the model. Specifically, let's look at the "forecast radar" data some of the models put out.
Here is a view of what the model says the radar will look like at 7:00pm CT this evening. So far the model is doing a really good job.
Here is a view of what the model says the radar will look like at 12:00am CT Monday morning.
Note how the hi-res model tries to develop a second line of thunderstorms in Arkansas. All indications are that this line would move to the east and clip southern parts of the KFVS viewing area (northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee).
The second line begins to fizzle a bit overnight and looking further in to the model data is moves all the rain north and south of the KFVS viewing area.
The big question for me is whether or not showers and thunderstorms fire further south in to Missouri this evening. I am not sold on that happening just yet.
If we do see storms move through overnight the main threat would be strong winds with some hail. Although, the Storm Prediction Center makes note that it isn't out of the question to have a tornado spin up either. Stay tuned...
First the setup: We've got a cold front that stretches from Iowa to Oklahoma. Ahead of the front we are starting to see thunderstorms develop. In fact, a Tornado Watch is in effect until 11:00pm for the northern part of Missouri, western Illinois, and southeast Iowa.
Here is a look StormTeam Digital Doppler. The image was taken around 5:30pm CT.
The Tornado Watch is indicated in the red outline. The yellow outlines indicate Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.You can see the storms that have popped from Kansas City to Kirksville. The main threat from the storms that have developed is large hail so far.
As I mentioned, the Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye on things for this evening. They have all of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee in a "Slight Risk" area for severe storms. The outlook is good through 7am CT Monday morning.
In the discussion from SPC, they cite a few high-resolution models that keep hinting at thunderstorm development later tonight. Let's take a look at some of the data from the model. Specifically, let's look at the "forecast radar" data some of the models put out.
Here is a view of what the model says the radar will look like at 7:00pm CT this evening. So far the model is doing a really good job.
Here is a view of what the model says the radar will look like at 12:00am CT Monday morning.
Note how the hi-res model tries to develop a second line of thunderstorms in Arkansas. All indications are that this line would move to the east and clip southern parts of the KFVS viewing area (northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee).
The second line begins to fizzle a bit overnight and looking further in to the model data is moves all the rain north and south of the KFVS viewing area.
The big question for me is whether or not showers and thunderstorms fire further south in to Missouri this evening. I am not sold on that happening just yet.
If we do see storms move through overnight the main threat would be strong winds with some hail. Although, the Storm Prediction Center makes note that it isn't out of the question to have a tornado spin up either. Stay tuned...
Saturday, March 27, 2010
5pm Weather Update
A line of showers and thunderstorms have developed across southwest Missouri and western Arkansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10:00pm for south central Missouri and central Arkansas. (Clay County, Arkansas is included in the watch.)
Here is a view of radar imagery from the Springfield, Missouri radar site.
I have drawn in the distance as to how far the rain is from the far western counties of the KFVS viewing area (Carter, Reynolds, Ripley counties in Missouri). The storms are moving at approximate 45mph so the storms/rain should arrive around 7:00pm CT plus or minus 15-20 minutes.
I expect the storms to begin to weaken as they push further east. However, it is possible for some large hail or some damaging winds to usher out ahead of the storms as they move in to the Ozarks of southeast Missouri or northeastern Arkansas.
I am not anticipating a watch to be issued for any other parts of the KFVS viewing area.
Here is a view of radar imagery from the Springfield, Missouri radar site.
I have drawn in the distance as to how far the rain is from the far western counties of the KFVS viewing area (Carter, Reynolds, Ripley counties in Missouri). The storms are moving at approximate 45mph so the storms/rain should arrive around 7:00pm CT plus or minus 15-20 minutes.
I expect the storms to begin to weaken as they push further east. However, it is possible for some large hail or some damaging winds to usher out ahead of the storms as they move in to the Ozarks of southeast Missouri or northeastern Arkansas.
I am not anticipating a watch to be issued for any other parts of the KFVS viewing area.
1:00pm Weather Update
At 1:00pm CT dew points have climbed in to the upper 30°'s to middle 40°'s. Winds are starting to increase out of the south/southeast.
The Storm Prediction Center has made a few modifications to their Day 1 Outlook for severe weather today/tonight. Here is their 11:30am forecast:
The Storm Prediction Center has made a few modifications to their Day 1 Outlook for severe weather today/tonight. Here is their 11:30am forecast:
They have adjusted the "Slight Risk" area further north on the western side of the outlook.
It still remains to be seen if we can get enough low level moisture (dew points) in to the area to support severe storm development.
Storms Possible Tonight
The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas in their "Slight Risk" area for severe thunderstorms on their latest Day 1 Outlook.
SPC forecasters mention in their discussion that the biggest risk will be damaging wind within a line of thunderstorms pushing towards the Mississippi River later this evening/tonight.
Here is the probabilistic graphic for damaging winds put out by the SPC.
What that means is that there is a 15% chance of damaging wind (in excess of 58mph) within 25 miles of any point within the blue area.
As previously mentioned we are still a little moisture starved. Dew points this morning are only in the 30°'s. Winds this morning are out of the southeast so we can look to see what dew points are like to our east to see what kind of moisture there is to tap in to. Dew points are in the middle 30°'s down across central Tennessee. Eventually we will see our winds turn around to the south this afternoon and start to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The question is how much moisture.
Last night's run of the forecast models are trying to draw in more moisture. Here is a look at the NAM model's run of the dew point forecast for later this afternoon.
You can see how the model brings an axis of 50° dew points up through eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and southeast Missouri. I think we need to see our dew points at least in the lower 50°'s to sustain big thunderstorms.
Finally, here is a look at the NAM's depiction of what the radar might look like at 1am CT Sunday morning.
You can see how the model tries to bring the line of storms to the Mississippi River by 1:00am CT.
If you have recently purchased a NOAA Weather Radio you might get a chance this evening to test it out if a watch or warning is issued for your county. Stay tuned...
SPC forecasters mention in their discussion that the biggest risk will be damaging wind within a line of thunderstorms pushing towards the Mississippi River later this evening/tonight.
Here is the probabilistic graphic for damaging winds put out by the SPC.
What that means is that there is a 15% chance of damaging wind (in excess of 58mph) within 25 miles of any point within the blue area.As previously mentioned we are still a little moisture starved. Dew points this morning are only in the 30°'s. Winds this morning are out of the southeast so we can look to see what dew points are like to our east to see what kind of moisture there is to tap in to. Dew points are in the middle 30°'s down across central Tennessee. Eventually we will see our winds turn around to the south this afternoon and start to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The question is how much moisture.
Last night's run of the forecast models are trying to draw in more moisture. Here is a look at the NAM model's run of the dew point forecast for later this afternoon.
You can see how the model brings an axis of 50° dew points up through eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and southeast Missouri. I think we need to see our dew points at least in the lower 50°'s to sustain big thunderstorms.Finally, here is a look at the NAM's depiction of what the radar might look like at 1am CT Sunday morning.
You can see how the model tries to bring the line of storms to the Mississippi River by 1:00am CT.
If you have recently purchased a NOAA Weather Radio you might get a chance this evening to test it out if a watch or warning is issued for your county. Stay tuned...
Friday, March 26, 2010
Saturday Looks Intriguing
After all the rain from Thursday, we are in for a treat today. 100% sunshine should be overhead. Although temperatures will be a little cooler. High temperatures will top out in the 50°'s this afternoon.
Looking ahead to the weekend... The rain is coming back. Saturday morning and early afternoon should be fine, but I am watching a storm developing over the Rockies this morning along with upper level energy just coming on-shore over the west coast.
The upper-level portion of the storm looks intriguing to me for Saturday evening. Here is a look at the NAM models' 500mb chart.
Ahead of the upper low you can see the nose of the faster winds moving in to northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. This is "energy" coming to aid thunderstorms that develop.
The problem is the development part of the equation. The atmosphere has been scoured out after yesterday's rain. With high pressure keeping things cool and dry (dew point) today the atmosphere over the area isn't primed for severe thunderstorms.
We should see our winds turn around to the south tomorrow and start to draw up some moisture. I would like to see dew points in the lower to middle 50°'s this time of year for severe thunderstorms (if not a little higher). Today our dew points are in the upper 20°'s to lower 30°'s so we need to pump a lot of moisture up this way.
Here is the forecast dew points for Saturday afternoon.
This model brings dew points in to the upper 40's to near 50° in the Missouri Bootheel. This might be one of the things that ends up limiting severe thunderstorms from developing.
The Storm Prediction Center doesn't have anyone outlooked for severe weather tomorrow. However, they said they are monitoring the Arkansas, southern Missouri, western Tennessee, northern Louisiana, and northern Mississippi area.
Looking ahead to the weekend... The rain is coming back. Saturday morning and early afternoon should be fine, but I am watching a storm developing over the Rockies this morning along with upper level energy just coming on-shore over the west coast.
The upper-level portion of the storm looks intriguing to me for Saturday evening. Here is a look at the NAM models' 500mb chart.
Ahead of the upper low you can see the nose of the faster winds moving in to northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. This is "energy" coming to aid thunderstorms that develop.The problem is the development part of the equation. The atmosphere has been scoured out after yesterday's rain. With high pressure keeping things cool and dry (dew point) today the atmosphere over the area isn't primed for severe thunderstorms.
We should see our winds turn around to the south tomorrow and start to draw up some moisture. I would like to see dew points in the lower to middle 50°'s this time of year for severe thunderstorms (if not a little higher). Today our dew points are in the upper 20°'s to lower 30°'s so we need to pump a lot of moisture up this way.
Here is the forecast dew points for Saturday afternoon.
This model brings dew points in to the upper 40's to near 50° in the Missouri Bootheel. This might be one of the things that ends up limiting severe thunderstorms from developing.The Storm Prediction Center doesn't have anyone outlooked for severe weather tomorrow. However, they said they are monitoring the Arkansas, southern Missouri, western Tennessee, northern Louisiana, and northern Mississippi area.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Storms Down South
We are in for another "yucko" day. Cloudy skies and rain. There could be some stronger storms just to the south and southeast of the KFVS viewing area.
Take a look at this visible satellite image taken at 10:32am CT.
You can see some clearing taking place over eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. This is going to allow for some warming up and some "juicing up" of the atmosphere. I would expect to see some thunderstorm development in that region later this afternoon.
The question becomes "Could we get some clearing over the Missouri Bootheel?". I don't think we have to worry too much about severe storms around here. That being said, some of the forecast models are bringing some instability through extreme northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee between 1pm CT and 5pm CT. However, there are a few ingredients missing that I would like to see be available for us to be talking about severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye to our southeast today. Here is this morning's Day 1 Outlook:
Note that the area is "just" to our southeast. It will be worth keeping an eye on their next update which should be around 11:30am CT.
Take a look at this visible satellite image taken at 10:32am CT.
You can see some clearing taking place over eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. This is going to allow for some warming up and some "juicing up" of the atmosphere. I would expect to see some thunderstorm development in that region later this afternoon.
The question becomes "Could we get some clearing over the Missouri Bootheel?". I don't think we have to worry too much about severe storms around here. That being said, some of the forecast models are bringing some instability through extreme northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee between 1pm CT and 5pm CT. However, there are a few ingredients missing that I would like to see be available for us to be talking about severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye to our southeast today. Here is this morning's Day 1 Outlook:
Note that the area is "just" to our southeast. It will be worth keeping an eye on their next update which should be around 11:30am CT.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Elite Storm Spotter Workshop
Storm spotters are a valuable part of forecasting severe weather. Doppler radar technology is getting better, but it is still not as good as a set of eyeballs. The National Weather Service (and tv meteorologists) use storm spotters to be the "eyes" out in the field.The NWS holds "Basic" and "Advanced" storm spotter training classes every spring. The classes are free to the public.
This spring the Paducah NWS office is offering a new "Elite Spotter Workshop". The class will last up to four hours. To be eligible to take the class you must have taken the Beginner and Advanced class first. You also must register for the class online at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/register.
Below are the list of all Elite Spotter Workshops scheduled for this spring.
Monday, March 29
Time: 6pm
Where: Hopkinsville Community College - Hopkinsville, KY
Contact: David Powell - (270) 839-0109
Tuesday, March 30
Time: 6pm
Where: Fairfield Police Dept - Fairfield, IL
Contact: Galen Esmon - (618) 847-8169
Monday, April 5
Time: 6pm
Where: Western Kentucky Community & Tech College - Paducah, KY
Contact: Katherine Thomasson - (270) 331-8517
Tuesday, April 6
Time: 6pm
Where: John A. Logan College - Carterville, IL
Contact: Alan Gower - (618) 993-2323
Wednesday, April 7
Time: 6pm
Where: Show Me Center - Cape Girardeau, MO
Contact: Dick Knaupp - (573) 204-2941
Monday, April 12
Time: 6pm
Where: American Red Cross - Evansville, IN
Contact: Terry Brooks - (812) 401-9632
Tuesday, April 13
Time: 6pm
Where: Black River Coliseum - Poplar Bluff, MO
Contact: Ricky Sliger - (573) 686-8686
Thursday, April 15
Time: 6pm
Where: First Baptist Church - Owensboro, KY
Contact: Walter Atherton - (270) 685-8448
For additional information on the Skywarn Spotter Program you can contact Rick Shankling, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Paducah, at (270) 744-6440 ext. 726 or via email: ricky.shanklin@noaa.gov.
I will most likely be attending the Elite Spotter Workshop in Cape Girardeau. It is always good to get a refresher before things start getting really active around here.
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