Saturday, August 12, 2017

Early look at sky conditions for the 2017 Solar Eclipse

The buzz around the Solar Eclipse on August 21 is starting to increase as we get closer to the day.  While it is still many days away, computer models are beginning to take a stab at what sky conditions will be for the day.

There are two computer models that can reach far enough in to the future to project cloud cover for the 21st.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations global forecast model (GFS) and the European forecast agency’s global forecast model (ECMWF).

For several days the GFS has suggested there will be a lot of clouds and rain in the Midwest for the 21st while the ECMWF is more bullish on sunshine.

Sunday morning’s computer model total cloud cover projections* at 2pm ET:

Bloomington, IN:
  • GFS - 99%
  • ECMWF - 45%
Cape Girardeau:
  • GFS - 100%
  • ECMWF - 31%
  • GFS - 98%
  • ECMWF - 36%
Columbus, IN:
  • GFS - 100%
  • ECMWF - 24%
Farmington, MO:
  • GFS - 98%
  • ECMWF - 19%
  • GFS - 100%
  • ECMWF - 40%
St. Louis:
  • GFS - 95%
  • ECMWF - 18%
*Higher number equates to more clouds obscuring the sky/sun.  The lower the number the better for viewing the solar eclipse.
Between those two computer models there are 55 more computer models runs to go before the solar eclipse happens.  The cloud cover projection will likely flip flop many times between now and then.  With luck we'll see the numbers drop to 0%.

Do you plan to view the solar eclipse?  If so, let me know where you'll be watching it by leaving a comment on this post!

1 comment:

Joe King said...

Driving to Hopkinsville Ky to watch!