Sunday, January 5, 2014

12:30am Weather Update

A quick update to show you what the evening run of the computer models are suggesting.  Generally speaking, they have come in a little "wetter", meaning they are suggesting there is more moisture to play with.

Here is a look at a matrix of snow amounts I have come up with for 26 various computer model runs.

(Click image to see larger version.)
You can compare the numbers to what the morning runs were suggesting by going to my earlier blog post.

When you compare Saturday morning's versus Saturday evening's runs this evening's runs are roughly 8%-15% higher.  That being said, the above numbers are numbers straight from forecast models.

My overall thinking hasn't changed much, although I am tweaking the numbers a little bit.  In some situations, there may be a little bit more rain during the morning in places like Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff, Carbondale, Bloomington, IN and Columbus, IN.  By afternoon, it should change back over to all snow.  In fact, the snow could be heavy at times during the afternoon along I-70 from St. Louis to Indianapolis and across areas north and south of I-70.

SNOW FORECAST

ILLINOIS:
  • Mt. Vernon:  8"-11"
INDIANA:
  • Columbus:  6"-9"
  • Indianapolis:  8"-12" (Locally higher amounts possible.)
  • Lafayette:  9"-13"
MISSOURI:
  • Cape Girardeau:  5"-8"
  • Poplar Bluff:  4"-7"
  • St. Louis:  8"-11" (Locally higher amounts possible.)
FREAK-OUT-METER
Normally the Freak-Out-Meter is based off precipitation but this time the numbers are going to be a little higher because I'm combining snow with the dangerous cold air coming in.

Keep in mind, the Freak-Out-Meter is based on a 0-10 scale.

ILLINOIS:
  • Mt. Vernon: 7
INDIANA:
  • Columbus: 7
  • Indianapolis: 8
  • Lafayette: 8
MISSOURI:
  • Cape Girardeau: 6
  • Poplar Bluff: 6
  • St. Louis: 8
BOTTOM LINE
  • Snow will start early Sunday morning.  It will continue through Sunday afternoon/night.
  • For places like Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, and Columbus (IN) there will likely be a period of rain during the morning.  It should change over to snow by late morning/early afternoon.
  • The snow could be heavy at times during the afternoon with snow rates in excess of 1" per hour.
  • Winds will increase and there will be drifting snow.
  • COLD air will arrive Sunday and linger through Tuesday.  Wind chills will drop to -30° to -40° in some areas.
  • Because of the cold air coming, be sure to not have your gas tank on empty.  Gas could freeze if your car is parked outside.
  • Travel is not advised Sunday night and Monday.  If you must go out, be sure to have blankets and other survival items in your vehicle in case you get stranded.
  • Be extremely careful when you go out to shovel snow Sunday evening and Monday morning.  I'm not talking about slick spots in the driveway, but be careful of the bitterly cold air.  Frostbite will be a serious concern.
As always, for more frequent updates follow me on Twitter: @johndissauer.

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