Saturday, November 7, 2009

Late Fall Rebound

It doesn't get much better than this in early November.

At 1pm CT, temperatures are in the lower 70's across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Even in to Indiana temperatures are in the lower 70's.

The one trade off for the warmer temperatures is the winds have picked up. They are out of the south/southwest around 15mph with gusts over 20mph.

Now that we are enjoying the weather, everyone likes to ask me how much longer it is going to last. For that, lets take a peak at the 6am run of the NAM forecast model from NOAA for Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

Below is a look at some of the data the model spits out. What you see is the temperature plotted by the red line. Precipitation (in this case rain) plotted by the green bars. The grey/white shaded boxes are where the model thinks clouds will be located.

With this particular display, time reads from right to left. (I know, backwards. I didn't write the software. haha)

Notice that the temperatures being put out by the model are already a little low. It is showing that we should be topping out at 70° today, but at 1pm the temp at the Cape Girardeau airport is 72°.

Going strictly by this model, it appears that temperatures will remain in the upper 60's to lower 70's for highs through the next couple of days.

You can also see that the model is suggesting a little bit of rain moving in late Tuesday morning. However, when you add up the amount of rain it is suggesting, it is pretty light. The model is only putting out 0.074" of rain through 7pm Tuesday.

This is only a look at one of the forecast models. I typically look at 4-5 models for a "normal" forecast. I will look at more if we have something big going on in the weather world (for example a snow/ice storm).

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