4:50pm Weather Update

A Tornado Warning remains in effect for parts of Mississippi Co., New Madrid Co., Scott Co., and Stoddard Co. in southeast Missouri until 5:15pm CT. The storm is moving to the east at 35mph.

The above radar image is from 4:44pm CT. It is zoomed in on the tornado warned area.

The SPC is also monitoring the Missouri bootheel and south along I-55 towards southern Arkansas for a possible watch.

11am Weather Update

It still looks like we could see some thunderstorms later today. Although, I am not totally sold on severe weather around the area this afternoon/evening.

At 11am, temperatures range from the upper 60's to middle 70's and dew points are in the lower 60's across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

Here is a visible satellite image from 11:02am CT. The sun is trying to pop out in some areas. When you look at the satellite image, you can see the center of low pressure. Can you figure out where it is?

We are going to see a mid-level disturbance move through the area later this afternoon and this evening. You can see it when looking at the 500mb level in the atmosphere. The first image is the initialization data for the NAM model valid at 12z (or 7am CT) this morning. The second image is for 0z Friday (or 7pm CT).

Image 1

Image 2

You can see the vorticity maximum (aka vort max) in eastern Oklahoma in the first graphic. In the second graphic you can see how it moves over southeast Missouri. The vort max could be the spark for some thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the area in a "Slight Risk" of severe weather through 7am CT Friday.

As a front is draped over the region, we will see daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. There is also a daily chance of some stronger (if not severe) thunderstorms too. See the Day 2, Day 3, and Day 4 outlooks below from the SPC.

Day 2 Outlook 7am Friday - 7am Saturday

Day 3 Outlook 7am Saturday - 7am Sunday

Day 4 Outlook 7am Sunday - 7am Monday

Couple Chances of Boomers

This will be a quick post this morning. It is early (at least for me). I'm not feeling too hot. (I'm not oinking, so no swine flu here!), but I wanted to make you aware of a couple chance of thunderstorms this week.

Last weekend I mentioned that we would be moving in to a wet period this week. Luckily, the last two days haven't been complete wash outs for the area. Along with the almost daily chance of showers it looks like we have the chance of some stronger thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center is already taking notice.

Here is a look at the Day 2 Outlook. The forecast period for this graphic is 7am Thursday through 7am Friday.

Here is a look at the Day 3 Outlook. The forecast period for this graphic is 7am Friday through 7am Saturday.

I have had a few people ask what a "Slight Risk" means. The SPC defines that by saying there is a 1 in 5 chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any point in the "Slight Risk" area.

Oh... happy 100th post!

10pm Weather Update

New weather data coming in late tonight...

I'm not that impressed with the chance of severe weather Monday afternoon/evening. Looking at the 0z WRF model, there isn't very much instability in place across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. That being said, this is just one model. I will be curious to see what the GFS shows from it's 0z run.

The new Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center doesn't come out until overnight (1am/2am'ish).

Follow Up: Largest Model Rocket to Blast Off

The rocket launched! According to Gizmodo, the rocket launched Saturday. As a refresher, scroll down and see my blog post from Monday, April 20.

Here is a video clip from the launch.

Don't Wash the Car

That's right. Don't wash your car. Mother Nature will do it for you this week.

It looks like we have a wet week ahead for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas. For several days the weather computer models have been showing this extended period of wet conditions.

Here is a graphical view of the potential rainfall for Cape Girardeau this week. This is from the National Weather Services Global Model. The model was run last night.

Note: Time runs from right to left.

The model is spitting out 2.9" of rainfall Monday through Friday.

The next image is the precipitation forecast for Farmington, Missouri from the same model.

Note: Time runs from right to left.

For Farmington, the model is putting out 3.1" of rainfall Monday through Friday.

It is not a sure bet that we will see THAT much rain, but it does look like we are going to see several days with rain in the forecast.

Along with the rainfall, the Storm Prediction Center is pointing out the chance for some damaging wind and large hail in their Day 2 Outlook.

This covers 7am Monday - 7am Tuesday.

Largest Model Rocket to Blast Off

I have always been a BIG fan of the space program. I hope we keep pushing money to NASA so we can continue to explore.

I saw a great article today about a man and his model rocket. This isn't any model rocket. This model rocket is 1/10 the size of a Saturn V rocket (The same rocket that sent man to the moon.) and weighs 1,600 pounds. It will stand over 36 feet high and be powered by 9 motors equaling over 8,000 pounds of thrust. It is expected that the rocket will reach an altitude of 3,000 - 4,000 feet.

The guy plans on launching the rocket April 25. I imagine that would be a cool sight to see. I am sure video will be available online. I look forward to seeing it.

To give you a sense of scale, below is a picture of an actual Saturn V rocket I took pictures of when I was at the Kennedy Space Center in March.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #171

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #171 for parts of southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. The watch is in effect until 7pm CT.

It appears that the main threat will be large hail from any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon.