10:18pm Update - Reports of Snow

I'm getting reports of snow falling in the far southern sections of the Missouri bootheel (Dunklin and Pemiscot counties).

Senath, Carutherville and Hornersville are reporting snow. I am also seeing reports from viewers in Blytheville, Arkansas and the airport in Blytheville is reporting 3/4 to 1 mile visibilities with light snow.

Here's a look at what the 0z RPM model is suggesting for snow totals.


The RPM is starting to jive a little with my forecast. Scroll down the blog and you will see a post from Saturday morning that has my forecast thoughts.

Numbers Coming In

Numbers are beginning to come in from a couple of the computer models' evening runs. So far I am still feeling pretty good about my initial forecast and don't see any reason to deviate.

0z (6pm) NAM Snowfall accumulation through 6pm Monday:


0z (6pm) RUC Snowfall accumulation through 6pm Monday:


Click on the above images to see larger versions.

6:50pm Weather Update - Two Rounds of Snow

7:00am Weather Update

10:45pm Weather Update

Getting the Brush

Mother Nature is getting her brush out because it appears that she is going to brush parts of the KFVS viewing area with a little snow.

Let me first say that right now it looks like most of the KFVS viewing area will not going to get snow from the Sunday/Monday system*. Areas that could get a little snow will be the Missouri bootheel, northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee and the extreme southeast corner of western Kentucky (i.e. Calloway County, Ky).

This morning's Global forecast model continues the trend of keeping the surface low of the storm along the gulf coast with moisture spreading north.

Here is this morning's 12z run depicting 12am CT Monday.


You can see how the northern edge of the moisture brushes the southern edge of the viewing area.

Last night's Canadian model shows the same thing. Here is the model's depiction of 6am CT Monday.


The only difference between this model and the previously mentioned model is that the Canadian brings a little bit more moisture further north and brings 0.5" of snow to a rough line from Sikeston, Mo to Shawneetown, Il.

As of now... I think that the Missouri bootheel could see anywhere from a dusting to 1.5" of snow. Northwest Tennessee could see 0.5" to 2.5" of snow. There could be a dusting to 1.5" of snow in Calloway County, Ky. (If your location hasn't been mentioned, consider yourself lucky if you get a dusting.)

Notice that I put an asterisk earlier in the blog. Just because you don't get any snow Sunday/Monday doesn't mean you won't see any snow. There is a second round to the storm that will move through early Tuesday morning.

In the models shown above you can see a second wave of moisture moving through the Plains. This is what will move through Tuesday morning.

Models have been hinting at there being enough moisture with the second wave to produce a measurable snow for the northern half of the viewing area.

Here's a look at the Global forecast model Tuesday morning.


This would be a fluffier snow so the snow ratio will most likely be a little higher. A general rule for snow is 1" of water equals 10" of snow. That ratio changes depending on a couple of elements such as air temperature. I think we could see a 14:1 to 17:1 ratio with the Tuesday morning wave. This would mean 1" to 2.5" of snow for the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

One thing that is yet to be determined is how dry the air will be when the second wave comes through. If we are dry, we could cut the above number in half as the moisture that falls will evaporate.

Glancing over the models

I've been looking over the morning models for the Sunday/Monday snow storm developing to the south. Now I want YOU to take a look at the models.

First we'll start with my favorite model, the European forecast agency's model. This is the depiction for 12am CT Monday.


The European model keeps the storm's surface low along the gulf coast but moisture streams north in to southern Missouri. This would indicate that the storm would bring snow to the far southern parts of the KFVS viewing area (northeast Arkansas, extreme southern southeast Missouri, southern western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee). Roughly speaking, maybe 1" of snow south of the Ohio River and maybe 2"-4" for the Missouri bootheel, northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee.

Now let's take a look at NOAA's Global forecast model for 12am CT Monday.


This model is staying pretty consistent keeping all of the moisture south of the KFVS viewing area. In fact, it is keeping the bulk of the moisture over Alabama and Mississippi.

Finally, let's take a look from north of the border. This is the Canadian forecast agency's model. This is the depiction for 6am CT Monday.


The Canadian takes the moisture farther north than any of the models. It would spread 0.5" of snow to almost the northern counties of the KFVS viewing area. It would also bring in more snow for western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and south of Highway 60 in southeast Missouri.

The Canadian model also brings through another little system for Tuesday. Below is the model's depiction for 6am CT Tuesday morning.


If the Canadian run is correct, a surface low would develop over the top of the KFVS viewing area and move east. Unlike what normally happens with this type of system, the Canadian has cold air in place ahead of the storm. This means that anything falling from it would be all snow. This could be an additional 2"-5" snow for parts of the area if it pans out.

Keeping an eye on southern storm

I'm keeping an eye on a storm the computer models have been advertising since the end of last week. It is more of a southern storm. The southern storms are ones to watch for the KFVS viewing area as those historically have the largest snow potential.

Right now the models keep the storm south. Maybe a little too far south for us to get a decent snow. However, one of the models brings the storm, and the associated precipitation, far enough north to bring some snow to parts of southeast Missouri, northwest Tennessee and maybe western Kentucky.

The model that brings a little moisture our way is the European forecast agency's computer model. If you follow my blog you know that I am a fan of this model. It has also performed very well the last couple of months.

Here's a look at last night's 0z Thursday run of the model. We're looking at 12am CT Monday.


The model takes the storm along the gulf coast. Notice the precipitation shield. It is rather large. In general terms look at the blue 540 line and figure anything north of that line would be snow. This run of the model indicates a pretty good amount of snow for central Arkansas and areas towards Memphis. This would also bring a little snow, perhaps 2"-4", through northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.

Here's a look at the new 12z Thursday run of the model looking at the same time, 12am CT Monday.


This morning's run continues to keep the center of the storm along the gulf coast and spreads precipitation north of the surface low up through Arkansas and Tennessee. This would bring a little snow to northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and western Tennessee.

The latest run is showing not as much precipitation on the northern edge of the storm. So maybe 1"-2" of snow for the above mentioned parts of the KFVS viewing area.

In contrast, NOAA's Global forecast model keeps the moisture south of the area bring at best snow flurries to the Missouri bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

The one thing models agree on... the timing. They pass the storm by the area overnight Sunday in to Monday morning.

This is far from a sure thing and is still a fluid situation. The numbers mentioned above aren't the actual forecast. They are just a quick glance number. I've got my eye on it and will provide updates over the next couple of days. As I like to say... Stay tuned.