7:00pm Weather Update - Snow Amounts

I've been able to take a look over some of the RPM snow accumulation numbers that I couldn't access at home. I thought I'd share them with you.

Here's a look at the 21z (3pm) run of the RPM for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee.


Overall, these numbers are pretty close to what I am thinking. Generally speaking, we will probably see 1/2" to 1.5" and a few spots in southern Illinois might see 2". The Cape Girardeau area will likely see around a half inch.

Some spots will see no accumulating snow at all.

Now for those of you living in Indiana... Take a look at the numbers the RPM is spitting out for you.


Keep in mind, this is a running 72 hour total. It appears that there will be a pretty good lake effect snow band setting up somewhere over northwest Indiana. I think some of the inflated numbers you see for Indianapolis and Bloomington includes the lake effect going that far south. It isn't out of the question that could happen for Indianapolis. I think Bloomington is a little far for it to reach.

12:30pm Weather Update

Looking at some of the computer models and it appears they are trying to take the surface low further south. This could mean a little snow further south.

Don't expect the rain we are currently having to change over anytime soon. It's the wrap around precipitation that will bring us the chance for some snow.

Take a look at our hi-resolution model (the same model we show as Precisioncast on the air).

Here is the depiction of pressure, winds, and precipitation at 10pm Saturday.


We will get dry slotted for a little while this afternoon and evening. When the rain moves out shortly from now, don't think the storm has passed and say, "This is all we're going to get?!"

Here is the model at


Here comes the wrap around moisture and in this case, snow. According to this model, the precipitation will start to move back in around 3:00am to 5:00am Sunday.

For the snow lovers, I wouldn't get too excited just yet over this. There will not be a lot of moisture for the cold air to work with. However, what falls should be fluffy and will look neat as it falls.

Here's a look at two computer model snowfall maps. I want to stress that this is just a computer simulation and not an absolute of what will happen.

The 6am run of the National Weather Service NAM model:


The 6am run of the National Weather Service Global Forecast model:


In general, the models are putting down around one inch of snow for most of southern Illinois and parts of western Kentucky with lesser amounts over southeast Missouri and Tennessee.

Something to notice with the two snow output maps above. The Global Forecast model, the GFS, has more of a broader, smoothed out look and the NAM has more little fine details. That is because the NAM is a higher resolution model than the GFS.

I don't have access to specific snow numbers from our hi-resolution RPM model here at home, but I will try to post them when I get in to work today. Ah... yes work. I haven't been there in two weeks. Gotta love vacation and gotta not be a fan of the first day back at work after vacation. haha

See you on the television for Heartland News at 6pm, 9pm, and 10pm.

9:00am Weather Update

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for it's forecast area which covers portions of eastern Missouri and western Illinois.


The advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through noon Sunday.

Forecast models are putting down a couple of inches of snow for the St. Louis area. The official NWS forecast is calling for 2" of snow in St. Louis.

Here is a look at a couple of meteograms. This allows you to see what several models are outputting at the same time.

St. Louis:


Farmington, Mo:


Click on the above images to see larger views.

Each line represents a different computer model and a different run of the model. Use the legend at the right of the image to see which color corresponds to which model. The run of the model is designated by the time stamp preceding the model name. The time is listed in UTC.

Temperatures are still expected to fall starting later tonight. Here is a look at the temperature forecast by the models for Cape Girardeau.


Bundle up!

Weekend Storm Update

There has been a lot of talk about a possible storm for this weekend. It still appears we are going to see a storm move through Saturday, but it might not be as much of a snow machine as it will be a rain, cold air, and wind machine.

The computer models are starting (finally) to come in to alignment for the storm. For the last week the European model has kept the storm to the north and the GFS has kept the storm further south. A more southerly track would mean snow for the KFVS viewing area. A more northerly track would mean the storm would be warmer and be rain. The winner appears to be the European model.

Here is the European model's depiction of 12pm CT Saturday.


It takes the low through Iowa and spins it up over Wisconsin. A cold front will be sweeping through southwest/northeast Missouri. Along the cold front showers and thunderstorms will break out.

Cold air begins to sweep in behind the front. If there is any moisture left over when the cold air comes in we could see a little changeover, but I don't think there will be much to talk about. Even as the upper low swings through on Sunday, I think the small amount of moisture with the system will stay north of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. At best we could see some flurries during the day Sunday.

I think it will be much of the same for those in central and southern Indiana. Rain will begin to move in Saturday night. Cold air will come in on the backside of the storm. You could see a little bit of snow on the backside of the system as the upper-level low swings through. I wouldn't be surprised if there is 0.5" to 1.5" of snow on the ground by Sunday night. One of our hi-resolution models is trying to hint at some lake effect snow bands making their way as far south as Muncie by Sunday afternoon, but we'll see if that really pans out.

The bigger story for Sunday will be the cold air and winds. It will be interesting to watch the New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears football game Sunday afternoon in Chicago (which you can watch on KFVS12). Winds will be gusting over 40 mph in Chicago that day.

So is this a big winter storm? The way it looks right now, not so much. Could something change? Yes. The models could do a big turn as the storm actually develops over land. Stay tuned...

Long range computer models are still hinting at a pretty potent storm developing around December 22-24 that will sweep through the Midwest and likely cause some travel issues for Christmas. It is way to early to tell if we are talking rain or snow yet.

I'm back from my trip to Florida and getting ready to head back to work tomorrow after some time away.

Just looking over the latest weather data before turning in for the night. It still looks like we could have a winter storm to deal with for the weekend.

There is still some disagreement in the position of the storm Friday/Saturday/Sunday, however there is some indications there could be frozen precipitation (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc) falling across south central Missouri up through south central Illinois to Indiana.

It is way to early to talk about exact placement and amounts. I will hopefully have more tomorrow night.

Also look like we could have a White Christmas.

Stay tuned...

Looking at weather data this morning and it looks like we could be in for a close call this weekend. A close call for what? Possible rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow.

The NWS' Global Forecast Model is taking the storm on a southern track and the European Forecast Agency's forecast model takes it on a northern (warmer) track.

I'm back in town late tomorrow and will try to put some more detailed information up on the blog when I get back.

Just tools glance over a couple computer models' 0z runs. Nothing too exciting showing up in them. It does appear as though we will see another shot or two of colder air coming down or the eastern half of the U.S. by December 12.

I am not sure how this will work as I am updating my blog via text message. I just went through and took a look at tonight's (Wed) computer model runs and everything is indicating no storm for Dec 7-9. Sorry.