10am Weather Update - Tornado WARNING

Watching storm capable of producing a tornado at any moment. It fired up in northwest Tennessee and is now in western Kentucky. It will track across the southern half of Graves County over the next 40 minutes.

Above is a radar image taken at 9:56am CT. The storm looks very "healthy" and capable of producing a tornado. Notice the hook echo in the storm. It is a text book tornado producing storm.

11:30pm Weather Update

Here is a look at the NWS radar located in Paducah, KY. The image is from 11:32pm CT.

The main threats from the line is damaging wind, deadly lightning, and heavy rain. However, we could see some small hail in a few of the cells.

Tornado Watch #127

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #127 for northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee, and Dunklin/Pemiscot counties in southeast Missouri. The watch is in effect until 5am CT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #128

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. The watch is in effect until 5am CT.

9:30pm Weather Update

I just took a closer look at some radar imagery...

The storms are approximately 60-70 miles from Ripley and Carter counties in southeast Missouri. The storms appear to be moving just slightly north of east and traveling at approximately 50 mph. That would bring the storms in to Ripley, Carter, and Reynolds counties around 11pm CT.

9pm Weather Update

Storms are rolling across southwest Missouri and western Arkansas at this hour. There are a number of Tornado Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings up and down the line.

The below image is a radar picture from the Springfield, Missouri radar site. The image was taken at 8:55pm CT.

The red polygons are Tornado Warnings and the yellow polygons are Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Currently, there is a Tornado Watch in effect that is west of the Heartland. However, the eastern extent of the watch is up next to our western most counties (Carter, Reynolds, and Ripley). The watch is in effect until 2am CT.

I anticipate a watch of some kind (tornado or severe thunderstorm) being issued east of the current watch sometime in the next couple of hours.

As mentioned earlier, tonight is a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radio before you go to bed.

3pm Weather Update

At 3pm, temperatures are ranging in the 50°'s to lower 60°'s across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Light showers continue to move across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Light rain is starting to become more widespread across western Kentucky.

As previously mentioned, one of the limiting factors for severe weather today/tonight could be the lack of dew points high enough to sustain severe storms. At 3pm, dew points ranged from 36° in Paducah, KY to 47° in Poplar Bluff, MO. For severe storms, I would like to see our dew points climb to the middle 50°'s.

Saying that, dew points are rapidly climbing just south of the above mentioned area. The dew point is 54° in Dyersburg, TN and 57° in Blytheville, AR. This is an indication that there is a warm front sitting over the area. North of the front, dew points remain low. South of the warm front, dew points are higher.

Here is the latest Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. It runs from now through 7am Saturday. The area remains in a "Slight Risk".

The interesting note is reading further in to the discussion behind the Outlook. Here is a section from the product issued from the SPC.

   ELSEWHERE...HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED EWD THROUGH
  NERN AR/SERN MO INTO WRN PARTS OF KY/TN.  WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
  AN MCS IS STILL ANTICIPATED...THE COMBINATION OF THE STEEP LAPSE
  RATES...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
  SHEAR ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
  OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE TSTM
  CLUSTER.

They seem to be interested in the idea of embedded tornadoes inside thunderstorms with the thunderstorm complex that moves through overnight.

This will be something to keep an eye on.

Tonight will be a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radio before you go to bed in case there are warnings issued for your area.

Storms Tonight?

It is a gorgeous morning! I hear the birds chirping, the sun is shining and there are no clouds in the sky. (Or at least that is what I see out my window.) However, later today clouds will start rolling in and so will the chances of rain.

The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting that there could be some strong storms later today/tonight. Notice the "Slight Risk" area in the below graphic. The graphic covers 7am Friday - 7am Saturday.

The biggest threat appears to be damaging wind and hail. However, dew points are very low (in the middle 30°'s.) We need them to be in the 50°'s before we start talking about severe weather. Looking to the south you need to go to Memphis to find the 50°'s. At 10am, the dew point in Memphis is 54°.

On a side note... Sorry about the lack of posts the last couple of days. I have been filling in on the Breakfast Show (5am-7am) a few days this week. That means my alarm clock has been going off at 2am. Not fun! I am not a morning person!!!