4:50pm Weather Update

Temperatures are still relatively warm in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Below is a look at surface observations around the Midwest at 4pm CT.

For us to start talking about an accumulating snow we are going to need to get our temperatures down. So far today, temperatures have been slow to cool. In fact, temperatures through the central and southern part of the KFVS viewing area has remained stationary all day.

A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the counties listed on the previous post through Saturday morning.

At this point, I'm not too bullish on the snow potential around the area. All models indicate that we should be all snow at this point. I just stepped outside and there were a few rain drops still falling.

Temperatures should begin to fall off later tonight. As they do so, it will be easier to work some of the snow down to the surface. There is a better chance for snow the farther north you go.

Winter Weather Advisory Expanded

The National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky has expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to cover some of their counties in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.


The Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect from noon until 3:00am CT Saturday. In the advisory they talk about a change over from the rain to snow later this afternoon, also mentioned a couple of blog posts ago. Snowfall amounts could be 1"-3".

How much snow will be greatly dependent on surface temperatures. As of 10am CT, temperatures across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois are in the middle to upper 30's. (Farmington 36° | Cape Girardeau 39° | Carbondale 39° | Harrisburg 37°) Temperatures on the backside of the storm have dropped to freezing. (Sedalia, Missouria 32°)

10pm Weather Update

Here's a quick look at snowfall amounts for the next couple of days for around the area.

The images below are meteograms that show snowfall amounts from various runs of two computer models.

Cape Girardeau, Missouri:


Farmington, Missouri:


Paducah, Kentucky:


St. Louis, Missouri:


The green line in the above charts is the NWS forecast. The other colored lines correspond to the legend on the right side of the chart.

As I have been saying, the Sunday-Tuesday storm is still looking like the "big dog" of the next two storms. New data coming in as I type would indicate a 5"-10" snow over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

It is still too early to be talking hard numbers at this point, so don't go running around telling people I am forecasting 5"-10" of snow for early next week. haha We'll see....

Dissenting Opinions

For the Indiana folks.... Snow forecast for Friday through Saturday is looking a bit more difficult. New data coming in is wetter than other data was showing 12 hours ago.

Here is a breakdown of how much liquid there is to work with across central Indiana from four different models.

• NOAA's global forecast model: 0.43" (morning data)
• United Kingdom's forecast model: 0.67" (new data)
• NOAA's regional forecast model: 1.00" (new data)
• Canadian Meteorological Agency's forecast model: 0.82" (new data)

In a general sense you can look at a 10:1 snow to rain ratio. During the Friday/Saturday storm there will be times when it will be coming down at a 8:1 ratio and other times when it could be as high as a 12:1 ratio.

Which model is correct at this point? It is hard to tell. (I am glad I am not on-air in Indy having to forecast this one.) I am thinking that the snowfall numbers I mentioned earlier need to be adjusted up some.

It appears that for central Indiana tomorrow morning will start out with a freezing rain/sleet mix (ice should be no more than 0.1" and more likely less than 0.05"). Then a change over to snow. Some of the heaviest snow could fall during lunch hour (11am-2pm ET). Snow will likely continue through the evening and in to Saturday morning.

Overall, the heaviest snow should be in east-central Indiana. Perhaps the heavy snow band setting up NW of Indianapolis from Lafayette to south of Kokomo to Anderson and over to Dayton. That band can easily shift north/south depending on the track of the storm.

Winter Weather Advisory

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for St. Francois and Ste. Genevieve counties in southeast Missouri and Randolph and Washington counties in southern Illinois. The Advisory is in effect until Friday night.


In the advisory area 1"-3" of snow is possible.

Right now it appears that most of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas will see rain this evening and Friday. There could be a little change over to snow on the back side of the system, but it won't amount to much.

Further to the northeast Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for central Indiana and eastward in to Ohio.


The National Weather Service is calling for 4"-8" across central Indiana. Sorry, but I don't buy it. I think a better call is 2"-4". If you are south of Indianapolis towards Columbus, perhaps 1"-3" of snow will be possible through Saturday afternoon. (That might even be overdoing it just a tad.)

The thing to watch out for will be a little freezing rain on the leading edge of the precipitation. Ice should be limited to 0.10".

The bigger storm to watch is still coming for Sunday-Tuesday. Stay tuned...

8:20am Weather Update: Indiana

This update is for all my friends and family back in Indiana. I have been getting several questions about what is going to hit Indianapolis area.

There are going to be two storms to worry about. The first comes this evening/Friday. The second comes Monday/Tuesday.

Primarily, both events should be all snow. That being said, on the leading edge of the first storm it could start out as cold rain and/or a little freezing rain. Don't get too concerned about the freezing rain prospects as models indicate we are talking less than 0.1".

Here is an overview look at the data straight from last night's run of NOAA's global forecast model.


If you are new to the blog and not familiar with the image above time reads from right to left. Along the bottom times are listed in Indiana time and UTC. The red line indicates air temperature at the surface. Look to the far right legend and you will see the air temperatures that relate to the line. The green vertical bars indicate rain. Blue vertical bars indicate snow. Red vertical bars indicate freezing rain. The grey blotches in the background are clouds with height.

The above model has done a pretty good job with winter storms this year. It is putting down 4" of snow for Indianapolis. Another model, the NAM, is suggesting 7.5". Usually I am a fan of the NAM, but it does not have the best track record this year.

Here is another look at the data for Indianapolis. This pulls both models in to one view. It also lets you see the previous two runs of each model. Finally, the green line is what the NWS is forecasting.

Will there be snow on the ground by Saturday? Yes. Is it the "storm of the year" as predicted by some in Indianapolis? No.

I would be a bit more concerned about the event Monday/Tuesday. The global forecast model is hinting at a 8"-10" snow.

Keep in mind the above numbers are NOT my forecast. They are numbers straight from a computer model.

4:40pm Weather Update

All eyes are on two storms lining up to the west. The first will impact the area Friday. The second will impact the area Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

All models continue to keep warm air in place over the area Friday. Here is the Wednesday morning run of the NAM model.

The yellow lines indicate temperatures at given times/altitudes. Notice that we don't go below zero anywhere in the lower 5,000 feet. At times we are near the freezing mark, but generally it appears to be all liquid.

Here is another look at the same model with the precipitation type.

Green vertical bars indicate rain. Blue vertical bars indicate snow. Looking at the added data in the above image shows the model keeps everything mainly rain with a change over to snow late. The amount of snow is small (1/2" or less).


Looking to Monday... Models are indicating this could be the bigger of the two storms. Cold air seems to be in place so we would be talking mainly all snow for the northern half of the area.

Here is a look at the 12z GFS for Cape Girardeau.

Running the numbers straight from the model brings down 10" of snow.

This is still several days away and I am sure the model will flip around a few dozen times between now and then.

Stay tuned...

More Snow?

If you watched last weekend I mentioned there was another storm to keep an eye on. As of right this moment, that is still the case.

It appears as if this storm would start to impact parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee starting Friday morning.

Initially, it should be warm enough for everything to be rain. At some point we should see change over to snow.

Thinking now is that this will be more of a "northern track" storm than last week's. That means that there could be potential for some snow, maybe heavy, over northern portions of the KFVS viewing area versus last weekends "southern track" storm.

Here is a view of the 12z GFS run from Tuesday morning for Farmington, Missouri.


If this model were to be correct, there could be 7"-8" of snow on the ground by Saturday evening. Again, this is for Farmington, Missouri and this is just computer model output data. This is NOT the forecast.

This same model is putting out the following snowfall amounts:

• Cape Girardeau 1.7"
• Paducah 1.0"
• St. Louis 4.3"
• Indianapolis 8.1"

Tonight's 0z NAM model is suggesting that the atmosphere will be warmer and keeps all of the precipitation rain.

A few things to keep in mind. Its still early. The track is still to be determined. The models are usually not exactly right. (As was the case last weekend. Hence the reason my forecast did not match up with the models' forecasts.)

That being said, it is a storm to keep an eye on.

*Before someone asks, no I am not able to show this type of data for southern Illinois. That data is not available using this program or this type of data.