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2:45pm Weather Update; Watching Boiling Water

2012-02-13T14:43:00.006-06:00

What's the old saying, "A watched pot never boils"? That's how it is today but instead of watching the pot everyone is watching the radar.

One of the most difficult things when it comes to forecasting is sitting back and waiting for things to play out as you forecast. That's the position I am now. Waiting for snow to start to accumulate. The thing I have to remember is that I figured the snow would start to arrive in the St. Louis metro area between 2:00pm and 4:00pm. There is snow falling, but nothing is sticking yet. It's basically "heavy flurries" right now.

At 2:00pm CT, temperatures were sitting right at or slightly above freezing. St. Louis (Lambert Airport) 34°, Chesterfield 32°, St. Charles 32°, Cape Girardeau 32°. Go a little further southwest and temperatures drop below freezing and there are reports of snow. Farmington (Mo) 28°, Poplar Bluff 32°.

Everyone is looking at the radar this afternoon. If you click on the "Radar" link above and look back over southwest Missouri you might be thinking "There's nothing out there. We're almost done with the snow." That isn't entirely true.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

The National Weather Service doppler radar in Springfield is down for maintenance today. That means the mosaic/composite radar that everyone uses to show the "National Radar" or the radar imagery that shows rain, mix and snow is missing some important data. The way the composite radar works is by looking at all of the individual doppler radar sites around the country and then, in simple terms, averages them all together to come up with a "big picture" radar view. When there is data missing from an area that is seeing precipitation, it is like taking away a big piece of the puzzle.

It is even more important to have all the radar data possible when there is snow as snow doesn't show up very well at far distances.

In cases when there isn't radar available it is important to look at surface observations to get a sense of what is falling from the sky. At 2pm, moderate snow was reported in Springfield as is the case in West Plains and Rolla.

Bottom line... Even thought it isn't doing much right now, give it time. There is still moisture to move through and a lot of it should fall as snow.

11:45am Weather Update

2012-02-13T11:40:00.003-06:00

Just a quick update to the current weather picture.

You may be looking out your window and wondering where all of the snow is at. If you've been following along here on the blog you know that I am not expecting the featured event to get started until later this afternoon and this evening in Missouri/Illinois/Kentucky and overnight for central Indiana.

Here's a look at the latest satellite imagery.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

I have drawn on a couple features to help point things out. First you can see the surface low drawn on with the red "L". Ahead of that I have two areas circled in yellow. I expect the areas circled to start to fill in and eventually bring some snow our way.

High resolution computer models are suggesting that snow will arrive in the St. Louis metro area around 2pm this afternoon. The area that will bring us the 2pm snow is right yellow circle.

Within the second circle (left), I expect to see that begin to fill in with clouds and eventually moisture in the next couple of hours. This area should bring the "heaviest" snow to the St. Louis area between 6pm and 9pm this evening.

The Hi-res computer models are also picking up on a "blob" of moisture moving in to southern parts of southeast Missouri (Poplar Bluff, Dexter, Sikeston, New Madrid and bootheel) starting around 4pm.

Temperatures have risen above freezing (33° - 34°) in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and the St. Louis metro area. Temperatures are expected to drop a couple of degrees starting around 5pm in St. Louis and temperatures will hold stead in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

6:45am Weather Update

2012-02-13T06:43:00.000-06:00

As expected radar displays are lighting up this morning. However, even though the radars may be showing snow, that doesn't mean the snow is reaching the ground. The air is still relatively dry at the surface. Dew points ahead of where the snow is reaching the ground is in the single digits. Where snow is falling, dew points have climbed in to the 20's. We'll need to see the dew points increase to those levels (20's) before the snow makes it to the ground.

Not too much has changed with overnight computer model runs. Although one thing did peek my interest this morning... The European forecast agency's computer model has come in a little wetter compared to all of the other models. It is also cooler at the surface which could mean more snow for areas in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Specifically, the European model is hinting at a 1" to 2.5" snow for those areas. I'm going to keep the forecast I put out last night but I am going to raise the snowfall amounts just a little bit for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

St. Louis metro area:
Generally speaking around the St. Louis metro I am expecting 2" to 3" of snow to fall. There will likely be a few spits of snow through late morning but I don't expect the accumulating snow to begin until mid-afternoon and it should end by 2am Tuesday. Snow showers will be possible Tuesday morning (rush hour +) but shouldn't add to the totals.

Southeast Missouri/Southern Illinois/Western Kentucky:
The forecast will be a little trickier for this area as there will likely be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain north to south across the area.

Places like Cape Girardeau, Perryville, Sikeston, Poplar Bluff, Carbondale, Marion (IL) and Harrisburg there could be 0.5" of snow to 1.5". Towards the end of the event, the snow is likely to change over to sleet or a little freezing rain.

Places like New Madrid, Paducah, Mayfield, Murray and south will mainly see light sleet/freezing rain. There could be a little snow mixed in for Paducah but it should be no more than 1"

Central Indiana:
I think we are looking at anywhere from 1" to as much as 3" of snow. I think the 3" amounts will be northwest of Indianapolis.

Here is a look at what the other overnight forecast models are suggesting for the Midwest.

First we start with the NAM.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Now let's look at the GFS.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

I have also mentioned the possibility of a little freezing rain for northeast Arkansas and parts of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. Here is what the GFS is showing for freezing rain accumulation.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Again, any freezing rain will be light so don't get too concerned, although even the smallest amount can make roads slick.

Freak Out Meter - Feb. 13

2012-02-13T03:34:00.001-06:00

I just realized in my snow forecast post that I forgot to give out my "Freak-Out-Meter" for the different locations concerning today's/Tuesday's snow.
For those that don't know what my Freak Out Meter is, it is a number I give out that attempts to quantify how big of a deal the upcoming weather event will be. It is based on a 0-10 scale. Zero being the lowest "not a deal at all" and 10 being "get all the bread, milk and eggs and lock yourself in the basement". The score is 100% subjective and it's an attempt to have a little fun.
Freak-Out-Meter:

St. Louis Metro area: 3 out of 10 (This could be the largest snow of the winter. Let's hope the roads don't become as much of an issue as the 1.5" snow in January.)

Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky: 3 out of 10. (Not so much because of the snow but because of the potential of sleet and freezing rain.)

Central Indiana: 2 out of 10 (Only because you may have to shovel.)

Bottom line, this isn't going to be a huge winter storm for the Midwest but it may be the biggest we have seen all winter for 2 out of the 3 locations listed above.
If you are looking for more specifics concerning the forecast (i.e. snow totals), check my previous blog post.
- Posted from my iPhone

8:00pm Snow Forecast

2012-02-12T20:00:00.001-06:00

Here is my snow forecast for Monday through Tuesday for the St. Louis metro area.

(Click image to see a larger version.)

Generally speaking around the St. Louis metro I am expecting 2" to 3" of snow to fall. There will likely be a few spits of snow through late morning but I don't expect the accumulating snow to begin until mid-afternoon and it should end by 2am Tuesday. Snow showers will be possible Tuesday morning (rush hour +) but shouldn't add to the totals.

Southeast Missouri/Southern Illinois/Western Kentucky:
The forecast will be a little trickier for this area as there will likely be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain north to south across the area.

Places like Cape Girardeau, Perryville, Sikeston, Carbondale, Marion (IL) and Harrisburg there could be 0.5" of snow to at the high end 1". Towards the end of the event, the snow is likely to change over to sleet or a little freezing rain.

Places like Poplar Bluff, New Madrid, Paducah, Mayfield, Murray and south will mainly see light sleet/freezing rain. There could be a little snow mixed in for Poplar Bluff and Paducah but it should be no more than 0.25"

Central Indiana:
I think we are looking at anywhere from 1" to as much as 3" of snow. I think the 3" amounts will be northwest of Indianapolis.

5:15pm Weather Update

2012-02-12T17:16:00.006-06:00

More data has come in and that means there is more information to digest. Earlier today I showed you what the NAM computer forecast model now let's take a look at what NOAA's global forecast model is suggesting for Monday's "storm".

Here is a bigger picture of the amount of snow the GFS is suggesting.

(Click image to see a larger version.)

Looking at the above image and comparing to the NAM's forecast from earlier today, both models seem to be relatively consistent. There also appears to be a northward shift, not by a lot, in the models. This means that there could be less snow for parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

Here's a closer look in to the St. Louis metro area.

(Click image to see a larger version.)

Similar to the NAM and the previous thinking, the GFS puts the higher snowfall totals over central Missouri. It also supports the idea of 3"-5" of snow.

I am hearing a lot of chatter about snow moving in by late morning for the St. Louis area. I'm not buying that idea just yet. The air is extremely dry. Dew points are currently in the single digits to just below 0°. Moisture is going to have to fall for several hours to bring up the humidity in the air to support moisture reaching the ground. This means we are likely to see a lot of snow appearing on the radar, but nothing reaching the ground. This means the accumulating snow won't start to reach the ground until afternoon (2pm - 4pm).

Here's a look at the southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky area.

(Click image to see a larger version.)

Unfortunately, if you are wanting snow, the shift to the north in the models is taking the snow away from southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The GFS is suggesting a general dusting to 1" of snow with a few pockets of 2". This is partly due to the model suggesting more sleet and freezing rain mixed in as warmer air a few thousand feet move in.

Here is a closer look at central Indiana.

(Click image to see a larger version.)

The GFS is suggesting 1"-3" of snow for central Indiana with the higher totals northwest of Indianapolis.

I mentioned that there could be sleet and freezing rain mixed in with this system. Models are suggesting that initially the precipitation falling from this system will be snow but eventually warmer air will move in a few thousand feet in the atmosphere. This would change to snow over to sleet and depending on how deep the warm layer is, it could fall as freezing rain.

Below is a look at the how much freezing rain could fall (and where) according to the GFS.

(Click image to see a larger version.)

Yes, I do think there could be some freezing rain mixed in for southeast Missouri and especially in northeast Arkansas. Don't get too concerned, it doesn't look like it will amount to a thick coating of ice. But as we all know, even a tiny bit of ice can make driving difficult.

It should also be noted that looking at this morning's European forecast agency's computer model, it has decreased the amount of moisture available for the storm from previous runs. For instance, yesterday's run had 0.19" (liquid) for St. Louis. This morning's run had 0.12". However, it did increase the amount for Cape Girardeau, Farmington and Paducah. This is due to the model shifting the track of the system a little further south.

Winter Weather Advisories & Watches Issued

2012-02-12T16:47:00.004-06:00

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of eastern Missouri and central Illinois. The Advisory is in effect from 9am Monday -12am Tuesday.

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Missouri bootheel, northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. The Watch is in effect Monday afternoon through Monday night.

You can get a closer look at the current watches, warnings and advisories currently in effect by clicking the "Warnings & Watches" link at the top of the page.

10:30am Weather Update

2012-02-12T10:30:00.006-06:00

New data coming in this morning and there has been a slight shift to the system for Monday/Tuesday.

The morning run of NOAA's NAM computer model is in and that is what I'll focus on with this post. I also won't go in to too much of the setup as I have already discussed that in previous posts. (Be sure to go back and read the last couple posts if you would like more overall thoughts.)

The NAM has come in more bullish with precipitation amounts BUT the amounts have shifted further north. That means that the band of "heavier" snow has shifted north towards the St. Louis area versus southeast Missouri/southern Illinois.

Let's take a look at some of the snow accumulation maps generated by the NAM. First, a larger view.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

You can see a definite snow band setting up on the above image. It appears to parallel just north of I-44 through Missouri.

Now a zoom in to the St. Louis area.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

This puts the heavier band of snow just north and northwest of the St. Louis metro area. It also shows that some of the bigger snow totals could come from central Missouri towards Columbia and Jefferson City. 3"-5" looks like a good call for Columbia.

Now down to the area centered around Paducah, Kentucky.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Notice the lack of snow for western Kentucky and southeast Missouri. The model run has warmed things up a little bit more compared to earlier runs. The NAM is hinting at sleet or freezing rain moving through part of the area.

Temperatures are going to be CRITICAL for the above area. Models are still suggesting temperatures will be straddling the freezing mark. This means that a minute shift in fine details could change things from rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Based off of this information places like Cape Girardeau see 0.5"-1.5" of snow. However, as I have discussed before, if things shift as little as 30 miles, the numbers could go up or could go down.

Now a look at central Indiana.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

For the last couple of days models were a little bearish on precip amounts for central Indiana. This morning's NAM has come in a little bit higher with amounts.

You can see how the band of snow moves across central Illinois and through the middle of Indiana. It puts down around 3" of snow for the Indianapolis International Airport (southwest side of city). It is looking like a 1"-3" is a good call for central Indiana. It is also looking like the precipitation will end as sleet.

I'm waiting for the rest of NOAA's global forecast model to come in. Once it is all in and I have a chance to digest some of it, I'll post the information provided by the model.

12:45pm Weather Update

2012-02-11T12:45:00.009-06:00

Talking cold, dry and then snow...

Brrr, its cold outside! At 12pm CT, temperatures are sitting in the 20's across Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky. Winds are gusting 25-30mph creating wind chills around 0°.

We can thank this to an arctic air invasion. Along with it being cold, dry air is infiltrating the central United States. Keep the hand lotion and the chapstick handy!

The dry air in place for the weekend is going to factor in to the chances for snow Monday. Moisture is expected to move in to Missouri/Arkansas from the southwest Monday. As the moisture falls from mid-levels, it will encounter the dry air. The drier air will act as a sponge and "soak" up some of the moisture. Don't be surprised to see the radars lighting up by early afternoon in central Missouri but most of the precipitation won't be reaching the ground.

The other thing the dry air will provide is an environment for evaporative cooling. As the moisture falls in to the dry air and evaporates, it cools the air surrounding the moisture droplets. This will help drop temperatures to near freezing (32°F) by Monday evening.

The big question is how much moisture will be left to reach the ground. Overall, models are trending slightly down in the amounts of moisture.

Let's take a look at what some of the models are showing. -- I want to stress that the following images are NOT the forecast, but instead what computer models are showing.

Here is this morning's global forecast model (GFS).

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Taking a slightly closer look at the Cape Girardeau/Carbondale/Paducah area you can see how it puts a bulls eye over southern Illinois.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Now let's take a look at NOAA NAM forecast model from this morning.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

You can see there are differences between the models. Also interesting to note is the new data from the European forecast agency's computer model and it is showing a little less moisture as does the RPM model.

The way it is looking right now, here's how much snow we could see Monday/Tuesday.

Missouri

Central Missouri - 3"-5"
Southeast Missouri - 1"-2.5"
St. Louis metro - 1.5"-2.5"

Illinois

Southern Illinois - 1"-2.5"

Indiana

Indianapolis - 0.5"-2"

Kentucky

Western Kentucky - 0"-1.5"

As I have said before, things are likely to change between now and Monday morning. The "storm" is still to come out of the Rocky Mountains. Stay tuned...

Morning Valentine's Day Snow Update

2012-02-10T10:57:00.006-06:00

New data is coming in from the computer models this morning concerning the possible snow Monday/Tuesday (Feb 13/14) for parts of the Midwest. I've mentioned the NOAA's global forecast model (GFS) and the European forecast agency's model (Euro) in my previous post.

Another model (the NAM) has come in this morning indicating there could be snow falling. Right now the Monday time frame is on the outer edge of the NAM's forecast range but it is indicating moisture and temperatures that would support snow.

There isn't much change this morning amongst the data. The only thing I am seeing is maybe a slight down-tick in the amount of moisture. At this point it still looks like a couple of inches of snow could fall around the St. Louis metro area (maybe 3"-5" towards Columbia), 1"-2" could fall around central Indiana and maybe 1.5"-2.5" in Cape Girardeau. This isn't necessarily my forecast, just numbers coming straight from the models. These are also likely to change over the next 48 hours.

Here is a look at what the GFS is indicating for 48 hour precipitation (liquid equivalent) accumulation ending at 12am CT/1am ET Wednesday.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

This gives a good indication that there isn't a lot of moisture to talk about. However, it doesn't take much to produce an inch of snow.

The one thing that is consistent is temperatures will be borderline. At the surface all of the models are showing temperatures will 30°-31° for most locations I am looking at (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, St. Louis, central Indiana). I say "most" because in western Kentucky surface temperatures are 32°-33° at the surface and 33°-35° at 3,000 feet which could limit snow production. This is going to make it really tricky. A shift in the track by even 30 miles will make a HUGE difference in who gets snow and who gets light rain.

With temperatures so close to the edge between rain and snow I'm looking at snow ratios ranging from 8 to 1 to 12 to 1. 12 to 1 maybe a little optimistic. I used those ratios to determine the snow range listed above.

Stay tuned.

Snow for Valentine's Day?

2012-02-09T15:38:00.003-06:00

Yes, it may be possible for parts of the Midwest. I'm talking about snow for Valentine's Day.

Morning computer models are indicating a wave of energy could move east across the Mississippi Valley late February 13 through the early February 14.

It is still very early to be talking about amounts, but it does look like there is a chance southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky could get their first "decent" snow so far this winter.

The European forecast agency's forecast model is suggesting there could be 0.47" of moisture to work with. NOAA's global forecast model is a little more bullish with its amount (0.22"). The big question at this time appears to be temperatures. Surface temperatures are looking to be +/- 1° of 32°. So temperatures are on the fence. As of the way it looks to me right now, I would guess that it would be a very wet snow with perhaps an 8 to 1 ratio (snow to rain). If you do the math that could be a 2"-4" snow.

This is FAR from being set in stone. A change in the weather pattern of 30 miles could make a HUGE difference so don't get too excited just yet. We'll keep an eye on it over the next couple of days.

Stay tuned...

Light Snow Overnight

2012-02-07T13:23:00.005-06:00

Light snow will be a possibility overnight for the St. Louis metro area east to central Indiana. Snowfall amounts will be light so no need to get too excited.

A wave of energy is beginning to move out of the Rocky Mountains. This wave will provide the energy needed to produce precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to drop overnight and it appears there will be a 5-6 hour window where temperatures at the surface will be below freezing to allow the snow to reach the ground.

Forecast models are indicating light amounts of moisture with this system. Both the morning runs of NOAA's global forecast model and the European forecast agency model are keeping less than 0.03" of liquid for St. Louis and Indianapolis. Generally speaking, I think we will see a dusting to less than a half inch of snow. (In many cases, it could be less than a quarter of an inch.)

Timing...

St. Louis metro - Starting around 10:30pm-12:00am. Ending around 6:00am.
Indianapolis - Starting around 3:30am-5:00am. Ending around 10:00am.

Times listed are for when the brunt of the precipitation will fall. There will likely be some precipitation (rain and/or snow) falling before the times listed above.

Bottom line... Nothing to get concerned about. On my "Freak-Out-Meter" I'd put it at 0.5 out of 10.

Missing: Snow

2012-02-06T16:26:00.004-06:00

Be on the lookout for snow. It has been a rarity this winter across the Midwest. Here's an interesting statistic. As of today, Midland, Texas has had more snow than Chicago, the Twin Cities, Boston or New York City.

Midland, TX: 19.5"
Twin Cities: 14.9"
Chicago: 13.9"
Boston: 7.8"
New York City: 7.2"

So where is all the snow? I can tell you where it isn't. It isn't over the United States (lower 48 states).

Below is a map from NOAA indicating snow depth as of this morning. Notice the lack of snow, even over the northern plains.

(Click the image for a larger version.)

As of this morning only 26.2% of the United States is covered by snow. This is the lowest amount of snow coverage for this day since 2005.

2012 - 26.2%
2011 - 48.3%
2010 - 59.9%
2009 - 35.5%
2008 - 50.8%
2007 - 41.4%
2006 - 27.3%
2005 - 23.6%

Quickly looking over weather data from this morning I am not seeing any big signs of snow coming our way in the next week. Perhaps something around February 17, but don't get too excited yet. The models have consistently shown storms capable of producing a good snow 264 hours out almost on every run of the computer models. None of them have happened. Waa waa waa...

Where's the Cold?

2012-02-02T07:15:00.004-06:00

That's the question I have been getting a lot lately. I have got an answer if you've been asking the same question. The cold air has been stuck up in Alaska.

Check out the information the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska put out.

"January 2012 was the coldest month in more than 40 years in Fairbanks. Not since January 1971 has the Fairbanks area endured a month as cold as this." This was also the 5th coldest January on record. (The coldest January on record was 1971 when the temperature was 31.7° below average per day.) Fairbanks finished January 2012 at 19° below average per day. Nome, Alaska was 21° below average per day.

Diving a little deeper in to the numbers... At the Fairbanks Airport, the average high temperature for January -18.2°. The average low temperature was -35°.

I haven't had too many complaints about not having the barbaric temperatures but it needs to feel like winter... Right?! The start of 2012 has been crazy warm across the Midwest. Here's a look at how temperatures fared compared to normal for January 2012.

Illinois:

Carbondale +4.9°
Chicago 6.4°
Moline +6.3°

Indiana:

Bloomington +4.7°
Evansville +4.9°
Indianapolis +5.6°
Lafayette +5.4°
Muncie +4.3°
Kentucky:
Paducah +5.5°

Missouri:

Cape Girardeau +6.1°
Chesterfield +5.1°
Columbia +5.7°
Poplar Bluff +5.9°
St. Charles +4.7°
St. Louis +6.3°

Looking at long term doesn't show any near-term changes. It appears that through the middle of February all of the cold air will stay bottled up over Alaska and Canada and the lower 48 should remain relatively warm. Having said that, we will still see shots of cooler air coming down, but it should only be short lived.

The Week Ahead; Weekend Storm?

2012-01-29T21:55:00.007-06:00

I've been looking over weather data today and there are some hints that we could see some "interesting" weather for the weekend.

Before I get too far ahead, I should mention what we're going to see at the beginning of the week. The jet stream is flattening out and becoming zonal. This will allow temperatures to climb on southwesterly winds. Highs will be in to the 60's for parts of the Midwest Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday.

As you can see from the above graphic, temperatures are going to be 15 to 30 degrees above normal. A weak cold front will eventually come through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning that will drop temperatures 10 degrees. Also, ahead of the front we could see showers and a few thunderstorms develop in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Indiana. At this point I am not expecting severe weather, but whenever you have temperatures in the 60's and strong southwesterly winds at the surface you always need to keep an eye on it.

Interesting that we are going to see mild if not warm weather for a couple of days. Our neighbors to the north are seeing the flip-side. Take a look at this picture taken around 11:00am this morning in Fairbanks, Alaska.

The picture was taken by my college meteorology professor, Dr. David Arnold. He said the overnight low was -51 degrees. It appears we may get a chunk of that colder air coming down for the lower 48 later this week or early next week. However, long range data is indicating the cold air will continue to pool over Alaska and temperatures will go back up for the lower 48 through the beginning of February.

Now back to what I was talking about off the top of this post. There are some hints that we could see a surface low develop and move up through the Mississippi Valley this weekend. I should say that not all computer models are agreeing with this. However, the European forecast agency's model and the Canadian forecast agency's computer model are suggesting this.

Here's a look at the Canadian model's output for 6am CT Saturday, February 4. The image shows surface pressure and precipitation.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Both models bring the surface low over the confluence of the Mississippi River and Ohio River. Models are also suggesting cold air diving south on the north side of the storm. If these models are correct (that remains to be seen), the big question will be how much cold air will be at the surface.

Potentially, this could bring snow to places like St. Louis to Effingham, IL to Indianapolis. Of course, the actual storm track will be key to determining who sees what and who sees how much. As I like to say, "Stay tuned..."

11:00am Weather Update

2012-01-22T11:24:00.008-06:00

If you step outside in the Midwest it may be hard to believe that we could be dealing with severe thunderstorms late tonight and early Monday morning.

Temperatures at 11am CT range from the 30°'s and 40°'s across Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Missouri. However, this will change later today as a warm front lifts through the Midwest. Behind the warm front, warmer, more moist air will begin to stream north on southerly winds. Temperatures are already beginning to climb in eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

The main threat for those of you in Indiana, Illinois and Missouri will be strong damaging winds with a line of storms that moves through late tonight and through the early AM hours Monday. The low-level jet stream is forecast to bring strong winds closer to the surface. The image below shows you a slice of the atmosphere.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

The winds are forecast to hit 55 knots to 62 knots at 1,500 feet to 2,000 feet. Any thunderstorm moving through that environment will have the potential of tapping in to the wind and brining it down to the surface. (The above image is for Cape Girardeau, Missouri.)

Now there is going to be a larger threat for tornadoes for part of the Mississippi Valley. They could occur anywhere from northern Mississippi to western Kentucky and parts of southeast Missouri (towards the bootheel).

Often times I like to pick out an initial chase target of where I would go if I were storm chasing the event. Let me first say that tonight I AM NOT chasing nor do I recommend ANYONE chasing tonight as the conditions will not be safe. As for my target... After looking over weather data from the morning computer model runs, I am liking an area in eastern Arkansas. Somewhere between Searcy --> Newport --> Wynne.

Later today I am going to post a page that will allow you to look at radar images from the St. Louis radar, the Paducah radar and the Memphis radar. The images will update every 4-6 minutes as we go through the night.

Threat of Storms Continues

2012-01-22T07:20:00.001-06:00

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the "Moderate Risk" and "Slight Risk" areas in the latest outlook.

Storms should arrive this evening for eastern Missouri and move east overnight. Damaging wind and tornadoes main threat.

Have a way to be alerted to severe weather warnings overnight. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, be sure it is working and the batteries are still good.

Also remember to go over your severe weather plan with your kids in case of a tornado warning. Better to be prepared now than not being prepared when it happens.

- Posted from my iPhone

Severe Thunderstorms Sunday

2012-01-21T16:21:00.003-06:00

Looking over weather data for tomorrow evening. The potential exists for severe thunderstorms Sunday across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and southern Indiana.

The Storm Prediction Center has the area below shaded in yellow for a "Slight Risk" for seeing severe thunderstorms.

I wouldn't be surprised to see SPC upgrade parts of the "Slight Risk" to a "Moderate Risk" when their new forecasts come out tomorrow.

The best window of opportunity for severe storms appears to be from 5pm - 10pm for the KFVS viewing area.

Now is a good time to review your severe weather plan. What do you do if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued? What do you do if a Tornado Warning is issued? Is your NOAA Weather Radio turned on? Do the batteries need replaced? It's always better to think about these things ahead of time instead of afterwards.

2:00pm Weather Update

2012-01-20T13:55:00.004-06:00

Warm air is beginning to transport northeast across Indiana. Yes, I said warm air, however you aren't likely to feel it. The warm air is around 3,000' - 5,000' feet above the surface of the earth.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Temperatures across Indiana at the surface are well below freezing. The freezing line is located from approximately Louisville to Mt. Vernon, Illinois.

(Click the image above to see a larger version.)

You can see the surface temps in the image above. The temperature is located to the upper left of the dot at each location. The lower left indicates the dew point temperature. The yellow lines are temperature contours that try to fill in "between the dots".

So far the "storm" is behaving as expected. There was a brief little burst of moisture for north central Indiana earlier. This is now waning and there will be a lull for several hours. I expect moisture to fill back in later this evening. For the Indianapolis area, I expect moisture to begin to move back in between 7:00pm and 10:00pm ET.

Contrary to what you may be hearing in some forecasts, I don't believe the Indianapolis metro area is going to see any snow. All of the moisture should fall as freezing rain. The mid-levels of the atmosphere will not have enough cold air to support snow. At best, it may change over to a little sleet but as I said, most, if not all, of it will fall as freezing rain.

Freezing Rain Tonight

2012-01-20T10:53:00.007-06:00

It is beginning to look more and more like parts of the Midwest will see freezing rain and/or freezing mist beginning later today.

At 11:00am CT, temperatures are cold across the Midwest with temperatures ranging from the single digits to the middle 20's. Dew points are very low ranging from below zero to the middle teens. Dew points that low indicates we are talking about an arctic air mass.

The above data shows that it is cold enough at the surface to freeze any kind of moisture falling out of the sky. However, the air a few thousand feet in the sky is something to note.

Right now, at 850mb, or 5,000', the temperature is -3° to -5° over central Indiana. However, forecast models are indicating warmer air will surge northeast and temperatures will go above freezing from Indianapolis south by 6:00pm ET to 8:00pm ET.
Having the warm air aloft is key as to what type of precipitation will fall. The warm layer will allow any snow to melt until it encounters the below freezing temperature. Since that below freezing air is at the surface, that usually means we are talking about freezing rain. Freezing rain is rain that freezes on contact with the ground.

It is looking like the moisture will start to reach the ground starting around 7:00pm ET - 8:00pm ET. This will coincide with the warm layer of air moving overhead. If by chance the moisture begins earlier, before the warm layer moves overhead, the precipitation will start as snow changing to sleet and eventually freezing rain.

Who will see what? I think from Indianapolis and south will be dealing mainly with freezing rain. Places around Carmel and Westfield will be near the line of where it will be a sleet/snow/freezing rain. North of that area, places like Lafayette, Muncie, Kokomo, should be all snow.

How much freezing rain am I talking about? Forecast models are suggesting anywhere from 0.02" to as much as 0.23". That will be enough to make roads slick and hazardous later tonight. If the higher side turns out to be true, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few minor electrical grid problems.

It also appears we could see some light freezing rain/mist around the St. Louis area beginning late this afternoon or early this evening. The amount should be light. Probably less than 0.07" but nonetheless, it could put a small glaze over roads.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer). Often times I will tweet out thoughts concerning weather events before composing a post for the blog.

Thursday Afternoon Update

2012-01-12T15:33:00.002-06:00

We still have several hours to go before the snow ends from west to east across the Midwest. I still feel pretty confident in the forecast that was posted last night.

Cape Girardeau: 0.75” – 1.5”
Columbus (IN): 1” – 2”
Chicago: 7” – 9” (I think there can be localized 10”+ amounts.)
Indianapolis: 2” – 4” (2” to 3” through the city. 3” to 4” on the north side near Carmel and Westfield.)
St. Louis: 2” – 3”

In order for the snow to come to an end we need the upper-level low to move out of the Midwest.

You can see the upper-level low depicted in the image above. (Click on the image to see a larger version.) It is currently centered over northeast Missouri. The low and associated ripples of energy riding around it will help spark snow showers and snow bands through the evening and overnight hours (east of the Mississippi River).

As expected, temperatures are much colder than advertised by the computer models. The models were keeping temperatures in the lower to middle 20’s for today. Reality shows that temperatures are in the middle and upper teens over Missouri and central/northern Illinois as of 3:00pm CT.

Temperatures this cold will allow snow to come down as the result of high snow-to-liquid ratios. I think places in Missouri will now see ratios of 17:1 to 19:1. What does that mean? That means that the snow will be drier, fluffier and it won’t take much liquid to produce accumulations.

Again, snowfall amounts remain on track with what I’ve been forecasting for the last day or two.

- Posted from my iPhone

Wednesday Night Update

2012-01-12T00:15:00.003-06:00

Just getting a chance to look over the data from the evening computer model runs. A couple of the models are trying to back off (a little) on the moisture available to crank out snow. Could this impact snow amounts? Good question.

I continue to think that snow to liquid ratios should be above "normal" due to the strength of the cold air. I think we could see anywhere from a 15 to 1 ratio to as much as a 19 to 1 ratio.

Lets look at some of the numbers from the models. First, here is the North American forecast model, the NAM.

CITY: H20 | SNOW RANGE

Cape Girardeau: 0.07" | 0.9" - 1.2"
Columbus (IN): 0.09" | 1.3" - 1.6"
Chicago: 0.50" | 7.5" - 9"
Indianapolis: 0.12" | 1.8" - 2.2"
St. Louis: 0.17" | 2.4" - 3.1"

Next, we take a look at NOAA's global forecast model, the GFS.

CITY: H20 | SNOW RANGE

Cape Girardeau: 0.10" | 1.4" - 1.8"
Columbus (IN): 0.20" | 3" - 3.6"
Chicago: 0.46" | 7.3" - 8.3"
Indianapolis: 0.22" | 3.3" - 4.0"
St. Louis: 0.15" | 2.25" - 2.6"

Now lets take a look at the European forecast agency's model.

CITY: H20 | SNOW RANGE

Cape Girardeau: 0.08" | 1.1" - 1.3"
Columbus (IN): 0.11" | 1.6" - 2"
Chicago: 0.58" | 9.2" - 11"
Indianapolis: 0.13" | 1.8" - 2.3"
St. Louis: 0.13" | 1.8" - 2.2"

In almost all cases, the numbers dropped slightly from earlier runs. However, that doesn't necessarily mean we are going to get less.

I am going to stay with what I was saying earlier today. The breakdown goes something like this...

Cape Girardeau: 0.75" - 1.5"
Columbus (IN): 1" - 2"
Chicago: 7" - 9"
Indianapolis: 2" - 4" (2" to 3" through the city. 3" to 4" on the northside near Carmel and Westfield.)
St. Louis: 2" - 3"

As for timing... Check out my post from earlier today for the details on when the snow arrives.

My "Freak-Out-Meter" holds pretty much the same as earlier. For places like Cape Girardeau, St. Louis, Columbus (IN) it is a 3 out of 10. For Indianapolis it is a 4 out of 10 and in Chicago it is a 6 out of 10.

None the less temperatures will be much colder Thursday and Friday and winds will be gusty out of the west and northwest.

Be sure to leave your snowfall amounts in the comments section of this blog post.

Live Radar Video Feed

2012-01-11T18:07:00.003-06:00

I'm going to try something new for Thursday's snow. I am going to embed a live video stream of the radar for the St. Louis metro area. Please let me know what you think of this feature by leaving a comment in the "comment section" below.

I apologize in advance for the ads that run every 15 minutes.

Wednesday Afternoon Update

2012-01-11T15:16:00.004-06:00

Still looking like an accumulating snow for much of the Midwest. As is usually the case, some will get much more than others. Totals could range from a dusting to as much as 10”.

In my last post I mentioned that I was waiting for the European forecast agency’s computer model to come in. The data is in and it is keeping in line with the GFS model.

Here is a breakdown of the amount of liquid is available to produce snow according to the European model. I am still looking at ratios generally being around 14:1 to 16:1. Some places could be as high as 18:1.

CITY: EURO LIQUID | SNOW RANGE USING ABOVE RATIOS

Cape Girardeau, MO: 0.08” | 1.1” - 1.3”
Carbondale, IL: 0.08” | 1.1” – 1.3”
Champaign, IL: 0.25” | 3.5” - 4.25”
Chicago, IL: 0.52” | 8.3” – 9.4”
Columbus, IN: 0.11” | 1.5” – 1.9”
Harrisburg, IL: 0.08” | 1.1” – 1.3”
Indianapolis, IN: 0.18” | 2.7” – 3”
Mt. Vernon, IL: 0.11” | 1.5” – 1.8”
Paducah, KY: 0.09” | 1.2” – 1.4”
Poplar Bluff, MO: 0.03” | 0.4” – 0.5”

Those are a lot of numbers to dissect, but you can see that the range could be from a dusting to 10”+.

Here’s a couple of graphical maps indicating snowfall amounts from two computer models, the North American Model (NAM) and the global forecast model (GFS).

NAM:

GFS:

I want to stress that this isn’t my final forecast as to how much snow will fall. The numbers listed/represented above come straight from a computer model. I am still going with the numbers I had mentioned earlier (Cape Girardeau: 0.75" - 1.5" | Indianapolis: 2"-4" | St. Louis: 2"-3") but I will likely be putting out a more detailed snow forecast later this evening.

Winter Weather Advisories are now posted for much of central Indiana and central/northern Illinois. Remember you can get the latest winter advisories, warnings and watches on my blog by clicking on the “Warnings & Watches” tab at the top of the page.

You can also get the latest by following me on Twitter as I'll be posting updates through the evening and tomorrow. Follow @johndissauer.

- Posted from my iPhone

Wednesday Morning Update

2012-01-11T11:20:00.005-06:00

The next round of computer model data is coming in this morning and the models are keeping the upward trend. Last night I mentioned it would be interesting to see how this morning’s runs handle the moisture. Do they take it up, keep it the same or drop it?
I look at several computer forecast models when putting together the forecast. During snow storms I’ll look at upwards of eight different models from various worldwide forecast agencies. So far this morning, NOAA’s global forecast model (GFS) is in along with the RPM.

Let’s take a look at the breakdown of how much water the models are suggesting will be available for snow production.

CITY: GFS H2O | CHANGE FROM 0z RUN

Cape Girardeau: 0.10” | +0.03”
Indianapolis: 0.22” | +0.06”
St. Louis: 0.16” | +0.03”

Looking at the change from last night it may not look like a big change. However, when forecasting snow, it doesn’t take much to make more snow. For Cape Girardeau and St. Louis the 0.03” difference could add an additional half inch and for Indianapolis the additional 0.06” could add an additional inch of snow.

With the amount of cold air coming in with the cold front, I am looking for snow to rain ratios of 14 to 1 or as high as 17 to 1. Going strictly from the GFS model that would put down:

Cape Girardeau: ¾” to 1.5” of snow
Indianapolis: 3”-4” of snow
St. Louis: 2”-3” of snow

I am still waiting to see what the European forecast agency’s computer model comes up with. All I have to look at right now are the numbers from last night’s run. They are fairly comparable to this morning’s GFS. Cape Girardeau – 0.09” | Indianapolis – 0.19” | St. Louis – 0.19”. Numbers from this morning’s European model will be in later this afternoon and I’ll try to give an update when they come out.

Timing: The snow should begin to fall in St. Louis during the pre-dawn hours (2am-4am CT), in Cape Girardeau during pre-dawn hours (5am-7am CT) and in Indianapolis by early afternoon (12pm-3pm ET).

As for my “Freak-Out-Meter”… I am going to keep it at a 3 out of 10 for St. Louis and Cape Girardeau and move it to a 4 out of 10 for Indianapolis. The “Freak-Out-Meter” is hard to score because there are two ways to do it. I could score it on how people’s reaction will be or how the reaction should be. I try to score it to how people’s reaction should be.

Remember you can follow me for more timely updates via Twitter @johndissauer and via my Facebook page.

-Posted from my iPhone

Numbers Going Up?

2012-01-10T22:05:00.005-06:00

New data is streaming in as I type tonight. Interesting to note that on first look, it appears NOAA's global forecast model is coming in slightly wetter.

The time frame I am talking about is still Thursday in to Friday morning for parts of the Midwest.

A strong surge of cold air will blow in behind a cold front passing the Midwest Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Th cold air will work very efficiently at changing the moisture to snow.

Earlier today I showed you what the GFS computer model was suggesting for moisture in Cape Girardeau (0.02"), Indianapolis (0.15") and St. Louis (0.07"). As of the time I am writing this, data is only available through Friday evening.

Here's a look at what the new run of the GFS is showing. Again, this is how much moisture is available, not snow.

Cape Girardeau - 0.07"
Indianapolis - 0.16"
St. Louis - 0.13"

Comparing that to this morning's numbers you can see the model is starting to increase the amounts.

The strength of the cold air is impressive. I think this could generate a 14:1 to 16:1 snow with a few locations seeing higher ratios. This would equate to around 1" in Cape Girardeau, 1.5" to 2.5" in Indianapolis and 1" to 2.5" in St. Louis. There could be a few locations upwards of 3" around central Indiana (likely north of Indianapolis).

It will be interesting to see what Wednesday morning's computer models are showing to see if they continue the trend of increasing the moisture, keeping it the same as tonight's runs or decreasing the moisture.

I am going to slightly increase the "Freak-Out-Meter" to a 3 out of 10. It won't be bad, but for some, this will be the first measurable snow of the season.

Stay tuned...

Light Snow Possible by Week's End

2012-01-10T13:46:00.002-06:00

It is starting to look like we could see a little snow across parts of Missouri and Illinois within the next 72 hours. At this point, I want to stress the word “little”. I’m not talking about a major snowstorm. In fact, I’m not sure if the word “snow” or “storm” should even be included in this discussion.

A strong cold front is just beginning to move across the Canadian/United States border. Behind the front, cold air is on the march. At 1pm CT, temperatures were in the single digits in Alberta and British Columbia.

Forecast models are indicating the cold front will pass through Missouri and Illinois late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Behind the cold front, the previously mentioned cold air in Canada will spread over the Midwest.

It appears that the strength of the cold air will work on the little amount of moisture in the air and squeeze out a few snow showers Thursday. Both the European Agency’s forecast model and NOAA’s forecast model are suggesting light amounts of precipitation for the cold air to work with. What is “light amounts”? Let’s take a look.

Here is a breakdown of how much liquid water is forecast to fall by the models.

CITY: EURO | GFS

Cape Girardeau: 0.05” | 0.02”
Indianapolis: 0.15” | 0.12”
St. Louis: 0.06” | 0.07”

You can see what I mean by small amounts of liquid to work with. Typically, you can say there is a 10:1 ratio of snow to water. In this case, with the surge of cold air, I think we could see at most a 14:1 ratio. This would mean approximately a dusting to a half inch in Cape Girardeau, a half inch to 1” in St. Louis and 1” to 2” in Indianapolis.

Here is another view of what some of the models are indicating for Cape Girardeau and Chesterfield, Missouri.

Cape Girardeau:

Chesterfield:

The above are called meteograms. The ones I have posted indicate how much snow will fall according to various runs of forecast models and the forecast from the National Weather Service. Remember, a forecast model is just that… A model. It isn’t reality.

Bottom line… Could there be some snow? Yes. Will it be a lot? No. Where do I have my “Freak-Out-Meter”? I’ve currently got it at 2 out of 10.

- Posted from my iPhone

Website Update

2012-01-05T13:33:00.001-06:00

Made a small update to the design of the website today. I have added a recent satellite image from the University of Wisconsin and the latest forecast map for today from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).

You can view the images by scrolling down the site and looking in the right hand column.

Merry Christmas

2011-12-25T08:15:00.001-06:00

Merry Christmas!

- Posted from my iPhone

No Snow

2011-12-21T10:26:00.001-06:00

Snow chances are pretty much gone for the weekend.

European model tries to bring an upper-level cold core low through southern Missouri, southern Illinois, Kentucky and southern Indiana December 28. That could bring a little snow but don't bust out the shovels just yet.

Christmas Eve Snow Update

2011-12-20T13:04:00.004-06:00

Just a quick update to give you the latest on what the computer models are showing for Christmas Eve.

All of the models have dried up the atmosphere for December 24. Temperatures will be cold enough in the atmosphere, however with no moisture, we won't get anything to fall. Bottom line, the chances for snow on Christmas Eve is looking pretty slim for Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.

The only hope if you want snow is this morning's European Weather Agency's forecast model. It hinted at some overrunning moisture for the Missouri bootheel and western Kentucky Christmas morning. If that were to pan out, there could be maybe a dusting to a half inch of snow by Christmas afternoon. That being said, I wouldn't hold your breath just yet.

Flakes for The Holidays

2011-12-19T07:50:00.000-06:00

"Am I going to have a White Christmas?" That is the question I am most asked this time of year.

As is usually the case, it just depends on where you live. If you live in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas or Kansas you could definitely have a "WhiteChristmas". Blizzard-like conditions are expected later today.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Weather data coming in from morning computer models indicates over a foot of snow could fall in some of the above mentioned locations. National Weather Service forecasts are calling for up to 15" of snow over southwest Kansas and northwest Texas.

Meanwhile, we're waiting to see if any snow will introduce itself in the forecasts for the Midwest.

This time of year there are "typical" storm tracks that will favor snow accumulation.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

Typically for there to be a big accumulating snow storm for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky we need a storm to track just south of the "Mississippi Valley" line shown above.

This means we're looking for low pressure systems to move from Dallas to the east/northeast.

Later this week models are now hinting at the possibility for a few snow flurries or snow showers to be flying through the skies of the Midwest.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

The storm that will bring the precipitation will form along the gulf coast and take more of a "Nor'easter" track, similar to what is shown in the above Storm Tracks map.

Models are suggesting that moisture will ride far enough north that some of it could fall as snow in east/southeast Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Right now, amounts look minimal. Perhaps just flurries to a dusting in most locations. Although, a few spots, like Indianapolis, could see a half inch of snow. A lot of the fine details have yet to be shown.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

The above map shows where Accuweather forecasters thinks there could be snow for the weekend. I think they may need to drop the snow line a little further south over the KFVS viewing area.

That being said, the chances for a "White Christmas" seems relatively small for all of the areas described above. A "White Christmas" is defined as having 1 inch of snow measured on Christmas day. I don't think we'll see that much.

A lot will likely change in the forecast between now and the weekend so stay tuned to the forecast. Also, remember to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) for more frequent updates.

- Posted from my iPhone

Signs of Snow

2011-12-16T16:07:00.004-06:00

There are signs that snow may arrive to parts of the Midwest early next week.

For several days forecast models have been hinting at a storm developing over the southwest United States, eventually moving through the Midwest. The models haven't been jiving too well with each other to the course the storm will take. If you follow me on Facebook you might remember a status update that said, "Models are flip flopping around..."

Last night's runs started coming together and this morning's model runs are pretty similar in to the track of the surface low. (See graphic below.)

(Click image to see larger version.)

The above graphic was created by AccuWeather but is pretty close to what the models are showing regarding the track of the storm.

Northwest of the surface low cold air is expected to move in. This will allow for some significant snowfall in parts of the country.

It is interesting to compare the amount of moisture north of the surface low that could interact with the cold air and fall as snow. Models are not on the same page with this feature.

The European forecast agency's computer model is more bullish on the liquid amounts compared to NOAA's computer model. Here's a closer look at what the models are indicating for liquid available during the time it would fall as snow.

European Model:

Kansas City - 0.77"
Kirksville, Mo - 0.44"
Columbia, Mo - 0.09"

GFS Model:

Kansas City - 0.09"
Kirksville, Mo - 0.03"
Columbia, Mo - 0.00"

If the European model is correct, Kansas City could end up with 6"-9" of snow (maybe more). If the GFS is correct Kansas City could get 1" of snow. That is a pretty big difference.

I should mention that areas along and south of the track of the surface low will see good ole' rain.

Stay tuned...

- Posted from my iPhone

One Year Ago

2011-12-14T15:24:00.002-06:00

The snow has been pretty much nil for much of the Midwest this winter. I'm hoping we start to see the action pick up soon but looking at computer models for the next two weeks it isn't looking too promising.

It is interesting to look back to a year ago and compare this year to last year's snow cover.

Take a look at the image above. (Click the graphic to see a larger version.). There's a pretty dramatic difference.

According to the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, 24.6% of the United States is covered by snow. Contrast that to 2010 and on this date 38.4% of the country was covered by snow. That's a 36% decrease in snow cover! Take that back to 2009 and it's even more dramatic as 48.7% of the country was covered.

Temperatures were also a lot colder last year. Minimum temperatures on December 14, 2010 was 1° in Carbondale, 4° in Indianapolis and Paducah, 7° in Cape Girardeau and St. Louis. Instead this year temperatures are in the 50°'s.

- Posted from my iPhone

---------------------------------------------------------------

4:00pm CT Update: I was curious when the last time we had such a small amount of snow on the ground so I went back and looked at December 14 going back several years.

United States Covered by Snow

2011 - 24.6%
2010 - 38.4%
2009 - 48.7%
2008 - 40.9%
2007 - 50.2%
2006 - 13.2%

You can see that today is the least amount of snow cover (for this day) in the last 5 years.

Snow Totals from Dec. 7

2011-12-07T11:08:00.003-06:00

Snow fell across parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi overnight.

I have to admit, I am pretty happy with how my snow forecast turned out.

Here's a look at some of the totals that were turned in to the National Weather Service.

Arkansas:

Blytheville 2"
Jonesboro 1"-2"

Missouri:

Cooter 2"
Hornersville 2.75"-3"

Tennessee:

Covington 2"
Dyersburg 1"
Jackson 1.5"
Memphis 1"-2"
Union City 1"

Did you have snow where you live this morning? If so, tell me how much in the comments section. *Remember, measuring snow on the grass doesn't work as it includes air/mud/dirt in the total.

It is kind of strange this season how Memphis, Tennessee has had more snow that St. Louis. I hope that changes soon. I'd like to get a couple of good snows!

Wednesday Snow Part 3

2011-12-06T21:14:00.003-06:00

Looking over some of the new data that is coming in tonight.

So far, data from just one of the models (the NAM) is in. The model seems to be coming in slightly wetter than earlier today. Snow to liquid ratios could be anywhere from 12:1 to maybe 16:1. The 16:1 may be pushing it a little because we aren't that cold at the surface. However, a 1,500' thousand feet up in the air we are -5 degrees Celsius.

Here is what the model is suggesting for moisture available and the potential snow using the ratios above.

CITY | Liquid | Snow (12:1)/(16:1)

Blytheville, AR - 0.14" | 1.6" / 2.2"
Cape Girardeau, MO - 0.02" | 0.2" / 0.3"
Dyersburg, TN - 0.16" | 1.9" / 2.5"
Jackson, TN - 0.17" | 2" / 2.7"
Jonesboro, AR - 0.16" | 1.9" / 2.5"
Murray, KY - 0.05" | 0.6" / 0.8"
Poplar Bluff, MO - 0.05" | 0.6" / 0.8"
Sikeston, MO - 0.05" | 0.6" / 0.8"

I think it will be possible for a half inch to perhaps a few isolated spots of 2" of snow to fall through mid-morning Wednesday.

As previously mentioned, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon Wednesday for parts of southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and northern Mississippi.

Winter Weather Advisory

2011-12-06T20:44:00.002-06:00

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, TN has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Missouri bootheel, northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. The advisory is in effect until noon Wednesday.

The NWS is calling for up to 1.5" of snow to fall in the areas mentioned above.

As snow moves in from the west later tonight remember that you can check out the latest radar by clicking the "Radar" tab at the top of the page.

Wednesday Snow Part 2

2011-12-06T11:14:00.001-06:00

As a follow up to the "Wednesday Snow" post from earlier, I wanted to let you see what another computer model is hinting at for snow.

This is a look at this morning's run of the North American model (NAM) running a snow computation.

You can see that the model is spitting out anywhere from a dusting to 1" of snow in parts of the Missouri bootheel, western Kentucky northeast Arkansas, west Tennessee and northern Mississippi.

Surprisingly, this is pretty close to what I was thinking.

Unlike last week's snow, this one may be able to stick on the ground a little longer. We shall see. Stay tuned...

- Posted from my iPhone

Wednesday Snow

2011-12-06T11:02:00.001-06:00

Forecast models are hinting at another snow for parts of the mid-south Wednesday. This could include parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama.

There is still some uncertainty with the snow possibilities. Not all models have converged on the same solution. The other thing, there doesn't appear to be a lot of moisture to work with. However, like last week, it appears there will be enough cold air aloft (and at the surface) to support snow.

Here is a look at NOAA's morning run of the GFS model.

Specifically, this is looking at Wednesday afternoon.

The models shows an upper level low developing over Oklahoma late tonight and closing off by Wednesday morning over Arkansas. The low then pushes east deepening over west Tennessee.

They solid grey coloring indicates some very light moisture to work with. Looking at Murray, Kentucky it is showing only 0.03"- 0.02" of total liquid to work with. That's not a lot. However, if you fluff it up there could be a half inch of snow squeezed out if a snow to water ratio of 20:1 could happen.

I'm not sure if that high of a ratio could happen yet. Temperatures aloft (a few thousand feet) will be cold enough, it will greatly depend on temperatures at the surface.

Again, this is far from a sure bet we will see a measurable snow but it's something to keep an eye on. Stay tuned...

- Posted from my iPhone

Shot of Cold

2011-12-01T10:22:00.002-06:00

If you follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) you know that I have been talking about a BIG shot of cold air coming down for the Midwest early next week. I've been looking over data trickling in this morning and it still looks to be the case.

Interesting to note that the European computer model and NOAA's Global Forecast model are similar but have subtle differences. Last night's run of the European model is much more aggressive with the cold air intrusion but holds it off for a Wednesday arrival. The later arrival is about a 24 hour delay as to what it has been showing for several days.

NOAA's morning run of the Global Forecast model continues to bring in the cold air starting Tuesday. (Tuesday night is looking cold! Good thing we don't have a snow pack on the ground or it would be really cold.)

I am still waiting for the rest of the morning's GFS to come in so I can take a look further out and I am waiting for the morning run of the European model to come in.

Never the less, I would plan on the coldest air of the season (so far) to arrive Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

----------------------------------------------------

Happy start to Meteorological Winter!

Yes, today marks the beginning of Meteorological Winter. The year breaks down like this...

Winter: December 1 - February 28 (or 29)
Spring: March 1 - May 31
Summer: June 1 - August 31
Fall: September 1 - November 30

Eyes Watching Snow

2011-11-28T16:15:00.001-06:00

A spoke of energy is spinning around an area of low pressure that is currently centered over south central Kentucky.

Just ahead and along the spoke precipitation should begin to pick up in intensity.

The Storm Prediction Center has also taken notice of the current environment. They have recently issued a Mesoscale Discussion for western Tennessee, southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas concerning snow rates picking up.

Laura Wibbenmeyer, former co-worker of mine at KFVS-TV, is in Portageville, Missouri and is reporting that it is all falling as snow. Nothing is sticking to the roads but snow is covering grass and car roofs.

The National Weather Service in Memphis is going a little higher than me with snow totals. They have mentioned that the freezing level has dropped further and is approximately 800-1,000 feet above the surface. If that is the case, more snow is likely to fall. Unfortunately, I don't have access to all the hi-res temperature profile data right now. (That is all located on my laptop at home.) However, I still think the snow will only accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Interesting to note the the NWS in Memphis has noticed that the rain is changing over to snow once the surface air temperature hits 36°-37°.

- Posted from my iPhone

Winter Weather Advisory

2011-11-28T14:49:00.003-06:00

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Missouri bootheel, northeast Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. The Advisory is in effect from 6pm through noon Tuesday.

The following is from the text of the Advisory.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON

AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY MIX

WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER

THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE

AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF

TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

ARZ009-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-290430-

CLAY-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE

222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6AM CST

 TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS OR ELEVATED

SURFACES. HOWEVER IF SNOW COMES DOWN HEAVY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THEN DRIVING

COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW

MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED

FOR POSSIBLE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION

WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

How Much We Talking?

2011-11-28T14:04:00.003-06:00

Everyone wants to know "How much?". That is not an easy question to answer. The reason being that it will be difficult to accurately measure the amount of snow we could see. A lot of this snow is going to melt as it falls through the sky. A lot of it is going to melt as it hits the ground.

I am still feeling pretty good about my projection as to where there could be snow. If anything, I might need to drop my line a little further south. Perhaps something along the lines of "south and east of a line from Murray, KY to New Madrid, MO to Malden, MO to Jonesboro, AR.

Rain is going to continue to fall. Forecast models are still on to that solution. The problem is the temperature profile of the atmosphere. In other words, if you go outside and look straight up, I am looking at the temperatures at different altitudes. In my previous post I went through and showed you what the models were indicating temperatures would be like at the surface and at 5,000 feet. The short range models, specifically the Rapid Update Cycle, are keeping the temperatures pretty close to what I mentioned before.

Cold air is on the move through Missouri. At 2pm CT, it is 33° F in Rolla, Missouri. Temperatures in southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas are hovering in the upper 30's.

The tricky part is determining how much moisture will there be to interact with the strengthening cold air later this evening and tonight. Models are indicating that ss the colder air moves in the moisture will begin to move out.

Temperatures at the surface should be a degree or two above freezing as we go through the late night hours. So anything that falls is going to start to melt as it approaches the surface. That is why I don't think we will see any accumulation on roadways. The ground is just too warm. However, we could see a little snow accumulate on elevated surfaces (deck railings) and on grass.

I've extrapolated the following data from a recent run of the RUC model. I am going to use a snow to liquid ratio of 4:1. That is a low ratio as normally, you will see snow to liquid ratios of 10:1. Although, we can see snow ratios as high as 30:1 and as low as 1:1.

CITY | Rainfall amount interacting with below freezing air aloft | Snow

Blytheville, AR | 0.2" | 0.8"

Dyersburg, TN | 0.18" | 0.7"

Jackson, TN | 0.06" | .25"

Jonesboro, AR | .29" | 1.1"

Murray, KY | 0.02" | 0.1"

Walnut Ridge, AR | 0.17" | 0.7"

Keep in mind that the above numbers are if we were able to squeeze out every little bit of moisture and make it in to snow. I just don't think that's going to be the case tonight.

My "Freak Out Meter" is still pretty low with this system. I'm still giving it a 1 out of 10.

Light Snow Tonight

2011-11-28T09:58:00.005-06:00

UPDATE Below: It appears like there is a chance for some light snow today and tonight across parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas.

As first mentioned 7 days ago, cold air is wrapping in behind the cold front/surface low pressure that initially brought rain to the region Sunday. Temperatures at 10am CT are in the upper 30's across southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. Temperatures are likely to hold steady in the upper 30's through the day.

Cold air aloft (a few thousand feet) will be between -1° and -3° Celsius. This will allow moisture to freeze in the form of snow. As the moisture drops to near the surface it will encounter temperatures that will be a couple degrees above freezing. This will allow for the snow to melt slightly. That's what we mean when we talk about a "wet snow". It is falling in to an environment that allows it to start the melting process.

The areas I think have the best chance at seeing accumulation, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces, will be south and east of a line from Mayfield, Kentucky -- New Madrid, Missouri -- Malden, Missouri -- Jonesboro, Arkansas. That's not to say we couldn't see a little north of that line, but the bulk should be south and east of of that line. (I wouldn't be surprised to hear some reports of snow around Doniphan, Mo, Poplar Bluff, Mo, Van Buren, Mo or even Sikeston, Mo or Charleston, Mo.)

At this point, I don't think it will be a big deal. My "Freak-Out-Meter" is around a 1. (That's on a 10 point scale.) Soil/ground temperatures are still warm so that will allow for snow to quickly melt, especially on roads.

--------------------------------------------------------

11:42am CT Update:

To give a little more perspective as to the temperature profile of the atmosphere I wanted to show you what temperatures are forecast to be at the surface and at 5,000 feet (850mb).

The following is from NOAA's morning run (12z) Global Forecast model (GFS). All tempertaures listed in Celsius.

CITY | 1pm CT 2-meter/5,000' Temp | 7pm CT 2-meter/5,000' Temp | 1am (Tue) CT 2-meter/5,000' Temp

Cape Girardeau, MO | 3.6°/-0.7° | 2.3°/0.5° | 2.6°/1.6°

Dyersburg, TN | 3.7°/-2.1° | 1.5°/-2.5° | 0.7°/-1.5°

Jonesboro, AR | 4.8°/-4.0° | 3.3°/-3.2° | 1.3°/-1.0°

Murray, KY | 3.3°/0.8° | 2.7°/-0.8° | 2.0°/-2.0°

Paducah, KY | 3.2°/0.6° | 3.1°/1.2° | 3.8°/0.8°

Poplar Bluff, MO | 4.4°/-2.5° | 2.1°/-0.8° | 1.2°/1.6°

Looking at the above data you can see when the colder air aloft strengthens yet temperatures at the surface remain above freezing. You can also see areas where temperatures never get below freezing. Also notice the times when the temperature barely makes it below freezing (0° Celsius). Yes, a few tenths of a degree can make a BIG difference in what type of precipitation falls.

This gives you a look at some of the data forecasters look at when trying to determine what type of precipitation is going to fall. Keep in mind, this is only one model of several we look at. For big snow storms I may look at seven to eight models.

Turn up the Thermostat

2011-11-21T17:50:00.005-06:00

November has been warm across much of the Midwest compared to what is "normal". I'd be willing to bet your electricity bill reflects the milder temperatures. I know mine has!

Temperature departure from normal across the Midwest.

Indiana:

Bloomington +4.4°
Indianapolis +4.6°
Lafayette +4.6°

Illinois:

Carbondale +3.0°
Chicago +3.5°
Moline +1.8°

Kentucky:

Louisville +2.3°
Paducah +2.9°

Missouri:

Cape Girardeau +3.6°
Chesterfield +3.9°
Poplar Bluff +3.8°
St. Louis +4.8°

We're getting close to the end of Meteorological Fall (September 1 - November 30) and the start of Meteorological Winter (December 1 - February 28). Temperatures in Fall 2011 will go in to the books above normal for just about everyone in the Midwest. But it appears that Mother Nature is aware that meteorological winter is just around the corner as it looks like colder air is on the way.

Forecast models are hinting at a change in the weather pattern starting as early as this weekend. The change in the pattern should bring a prolonged period of colder air to much of the country.

Before we get too excited about the cold air coming for the weekend, let me say that Thanksgiving and the day after Thanksgiving look to be nice. Winds will begin to turn out of the south Friday (it will be breezy) and temperatures will climb under mainly sunny skies.

A strong cold front is projected to move through the central United States starting Friday. Along the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some of the rain could be heavy at times Saturday/Sunday (depending on where you live).

Once the front passes, winds will shift and temperatures will plunge. Here's a view of the weather setup for Sunday evening as advertised by NOAA's global forecast computer model (GFS).

According to the GFS, cold air will dive all the way to the gulf coast by Sunday evening. (Hint: Look at the blue 540 line.) This also indicates an upper-level low will develop and center over Missouri by Sunday.

With the low, low clouds will hang around. The clouds are indicated by the gray shading. Along with the clouds notice the model keeps some precipitation around Illinois, extreme eastern Missouri and western Kentucky. IF this precipitation lags behind the cold front and IF the temperatures drop as much as advertised much of this moisture would fall in the way of light snow.

The European Forecast Agency's computer forecast model is also hinting at something very similar. (See above) The slight difference in the European model holds off the moisture until Monday afternoon/evening. At this point, it is splitting hairs between the two models. The key is to see the trend of what the two models are showing and the trend is very similar.

At this point I'm not concerned with the amounts as it should be relatively light. But yes, there could be snow flurries and snow showers Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Again, this is nothing to get excited about. My "Freak-Out-Meter" is pretty low, less than a 1 (on a scale of 1-10).

The models keep the cold air in place all next week. Yes, the temperatures might warm up a little but I think we will likely be below normal during the stretch. This would make sense with my belief in the "Law of Averages". November was very mild, relatively speaking, so we are due for some below normal temperatures.

Let's have some fun now... Look waaaay out in to the future. The GFS allows us to look 384 hours in to the future (16 days). At the end of the forecast run it is hinting at a decent storm developing along the gulf coast.

Over running the storm is a moisture plume that extends as far north as Kansas City. The model also brings down some colder air on the back side of the storm that would likely interact with the moisture plume spreading north. IF this storm were to pan out this way, that's a BIG IF, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky would likely start out as rain December 7 and eventually change over to a rain and/or snow mix by that night or early December 8. This would definitely bare watching if the model is right.

I should say that the model is not very good at depicting what is going to happen that far out in its run. The model is likely to take the storm out of the equation over the next several runs. In fact, what usually happens is the storm will show up once and then go away on all subsequent model runs. I just wanted to give you a "behind the scenes" look at some of the data meteorologists look at but don't always mention because we know it isn't likely to happen. But, as I like to say, "Stay tuned..."

A Few Storms Possible

2011-11-14T12:50:00.001-06:00

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northeast Arkansas for the need of issuing a tornado watch.

According to SPC the threat appears to be isolated. It will depend on how many storms can get fired up in the next couple hours as to whether a watch will be issued.

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for most of Indiana. That watch is in effect until 9pm ET.

- Posted from my iPhone

Storms Tonight

2011-11-08T10:18:00.002-06:00

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky and Arkansas in a "Slight Risk" area for severe thunderstorms in their latest outlook.

It appears the best chance for severe storms in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois would be later tonight.

There are still a few question mark for severe thunderstorms to develop.

We need to see the atmosphere destabilize. Right now the air mass in place is relatively stable. As the surface low currently over Texas/Oklahoma tracks northeast the low will deepen (become stronger). Ahead of the low, southerly winds should tap in to more humid air to the south.

Forecast models are indicating instability should move back north and allow the atmosphere to become unstable by tonight.

If the air mass can become unstable there will likely see a few thunderstorms moving east across Arkansas and Missouri.

The main threat appears to be damaging wind. I can't rule out the chance of a quick spin up tornado, especially close to the track of the surface low. The good news is that if there is a tornado it won't be like the long lived tornadoes seen in Oklahoma yesterday.

A couple things bother me about the setup... Cloud cover. Missouri is pretty well socked in with cloud cover. This is going to limit instability somewhat.

Timing... The storms would likely move in well after sunset. This will take away some of the spark in the atmosphere. That's not to say we couldn't see something after dark, I just think that storms will be on the downward trend of severity.

Bottom line...

Will there be thunderstorms? Probably.
Will there be a watch? Possibly.
Will there be a severe weather outbreak? No.
Could there be warnings? Yes, there could be a few.
Should you freak out? No. Just keep an eye on the situation. Make sure you have your NOAA weather radio plugged in. Have a way to be alerted if a warning is issued for your location.

- Posted from my iPhone

Threat of Storms

2011-11-06T17:07:00.004-06:00

We are less than 25 days from the start of meteorological winter but we need to be thinking about spring... spring storms.

I have talked about the chance for colder air moving south out of the arctic in the next week and a half. Ahead of the colder air it appears we will have a chance for strong thunderstorms across the middle United States.

The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Missouri, all of Arkansas and places further south in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday.

An area of low pressure is going to develop over New Mexico and Texas over the next two and a half days.

Strong winds in the jet stream will rotate around and provide lift in the atmosphere. By mid to late afternoon Tuesday I expect to see thunderstorms developing over eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and western Missouri. The thunderstorms should develop in to a line of storms that will move east across Missouri, Arkansas and further south.

I have been looking over the morning run of the GFS and NAM computer models. There are a few subtle differences between the models but both appear to be pointing at diverging winds at the 300mb level over southeast Missouri by Tuesday evening/night. The NAM keeps winds a little more divergent over Arkansas and the GFS keeps winds a little more divergent over southern Illinois.

Here is a look at one of the computer models. This indicates winds at 300mb (approximately 30,000 feet) 7pm CT Tuesday.

I look for divergent winds at 300mb because that gives an indication if there will be lift in the atmosphere. Diverging winds create a void and wind from below lift in to fill the void.

All of the above said, it looks to me there could be strong to severe storms along the line of storms as it moves through Arkansas and Missouri. It is still a little early to nail down the main threat from the storms but it damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and hail all could be possible.

Stay tuned...
____________________________________

Daylight Saving has come to an end. Hopefully you remembered to change the times on your clock this morning.

Fire departments across the country use the time change as an opportunity to remind everyone to replace the batteries in your smoke detectors. This is good practice. I want to suggest you take it a step further and use the time change as an opportunity to replace the batteries in your NOAA weather radios.

ISS Sighting Tonight

2011-11-04T16:22:00.004-05:00

There is another opportunity to see the space station tonight for part of the midwest. Unfortunately, it looks like areas in southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas will have cloud cover obscuring the view.

The details:

Chicago:

When: 6:42pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 5 minutes.
Where: Look to the WNW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the SE. It will reach a height of 55° above the horizon.

Columbus, IN:

When: 7:42pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
Where: Look to the NW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the SE. It will reach a height of 73° above the horizon.

Indianapolis:

When: 7:41pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
Where: Look to the WNW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the SE. It will reach a height of 68° above the horizon.

Moline:

When: 6:40pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
Where: Look to the WNW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the ESE. It will reach a height of 79° above the horizon.

St. Louis:

When: 6:41pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
Where: Look to the NW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the ESE. It will reach a height of 65° above the horizon.

Skies will be clear for the areas listed above so it should be perfect conditions to see the ISS as it passes overhead.

It will initially look like a dim star but it will be moving like an aircraft.

Check it out and let me know if you see it. Leave a comment here on my blog. Enjoy!

Cold Air Building

2011-11-02T16:17:00.007-05:00

It is the time of year when I like to start looking further out in the computer models. What am I looking for? I'm looking for cold air marching south through Canada and I am also looking for storms taking shape that can interact with the cold air. When the two play together, "fun things" develop.

For the last couple of days NOAA's Global Forecast model (GFS) has been advertising some cold air building and marching south out of Canada for mid-November. The latest run of the GFS (12z) continues to hint at the cold air coming.

Right now it looks like the cold air would come down in two shots. The first would arrive in the Midwest/Ohio River Valley sometime around November 13/14.

The second shot, and most likely the colder of the two, would arrive in around November 16/17. (The image above depicts the morning of November 16.) If the above image were to hold true, then I might have to use the "s" word for the first time this season. Yes, snow.

I should also add that the European Forecast Agency's computer model is also hinting at a shot of colder air coming down around November 12. At this point, it is splitting hairs between the two models. However, it is interesting that both models are hinting at something similar around the same time.

Don't get too excited just yet. This is a LONG way out in the computer models. There is a likely climatological bias in the models trying to bring in cold air to keep in mind. If I were a betting person, I would say the above scenario is not likely to happen this far in advance. However, it is something to keep an eye on. Especially if you enjoy colder weather.

Stay tuned...

U.S. Winter Outlook

2011-10-26T07:00:00.001-05:00

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter outlook for 2011-2012. According to the forecasters, another La Nina will influence winter for the second year in a row.

La Nina returned in August and is expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Forecasters also say there will be a wild card in play that will allow dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter. The wild card is the Arctic Oscillation.

Here is an explanation of the Arctic Oscillation from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)...

The Arctic Oscillation refers to the opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in the northern middle and higher latitudes. The oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of Northn America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase, as illustrated below. Over most of the past century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases. Starting in the 1970's, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.

Effects of the Positive Phase | Effects of the Negative Phase

of the Arctic Oscillation of the Arctic Oscillation

(Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington)

So what does all of this mean? Here is a look at NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for 2011-2012. Remember that winter is considered December through February.

Temperature Outlook:

Precipitation Outlook:

According to the outlook...

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Wetter than average with equal chances for above, near, or below average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding.
Great Lakes: Colder and wetter than average.

The outlook specifically points out "The seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance."

I don't know about you, but I am ready to start talking about snow. What about you? What would you like to see this winter? Weekly snow storms or calm and 55°? Let me know by leaving what you'd like to see for the winter in the comments section of this post.

First Frost and Freeze

2011-10-25T11:54:00.005-05:00

Its getting to be that time of year. The time leaves are falling off the trees, heavier coats are coming out of the back of the closets and time to unpack the shovels. Ok, it might not be time for shovels just yet but that time is getting closer, albeit a few months off.

So when is the normal first frost and freeze? The Midwest Regional Climate Center has put together some nice maps to try and help show when dates of the average first 32° F and 28° F temperatures.

Average Date of 32° F Freeze:

Average Date of 28° F Freeze:

According to the National Weather Service office in Paducah the mean date of the first freezing temperatures over the last 30 years for Paducah, KY is October 25 and October 26 for Evansville, IN.

Amazing Milky Way

2011-09-29T09:24:00.002-05:00

I have always enjoyed looking up in to the sky. Whether it be day or night, there are always things to find up there.

Take a look at this amazing video shot by Randy Halverson of the Milky Way. Enjoy.

One of the challenges in making this video, was trying to get good storm with stars shots. The opportunity doesn't come along very often, the storm has to be moving the right speed and the lightning can overexpose the long exposures. I had several opportunities this summer to get storm and star shots. In one instance, within a minute of picking up the camera and dolly, 70mph winds hit. One storm was perfect, it came straight towards the setup, then died right before it reached it.

Extended cut available here http://dakotalapse.com/?p=448

At the 1:57 mark a Whitetail buck came in to check out the setup. It was caught on 20 frames, and was there for about 10 minutes. It was only 50 yards from the camera, dolly and light.

At the 3:24 mark, a meteor reflects on the water of the small lake, see still below in Photos. There are also quite a few other meteors in the timelapse.

This was all shot in central South Dakota from June-August.

Sunday Evening Weather Update 9/25

2011-09-25T19:15:00.003-05:00

Saturday Evening Weather Update 9/24

2011-09-24T20:20:00.000-05:00

Signs of Change

2011-09-14T10:59:00.001-05:00

It's that time of year. Wild swings in temperatures every couple of days. The battle of the seasons is beginning.

Take a look at temperatures from this morning. The below freezing line crossed the U.S./Canadian border. Where's Homeland Security when you need them? Haha

A cold front is moving through the Midwest today. Yesterday, ahead of the front, highs climbed in to the 90°'s. Today, temps are being held down in the 60°'s.

- Posted from my iPhone

And He's On It

2011-09-07T14:55:00.011-05:00

In the words of the late Indianapolis Motor Speedway public address announcer, Tom Carnegie, "And he's on it."

Yes, that is right. I am going to be back on the television giving you the latest forecast. You can watch my forecast starting this Saturday on Fox59 News at 10 on WXIN-TV in Indianapolis, Indiana.

I will be working as one of the weekend meteorologists at the station for three weeks this month.

Don't worry, if you don't live in central Indiana and can't get the station on television, they stream their newscasts live on their website - www.fox59.com. Keep in mind that Indiana is in the eastern time zone. The 10pm ET news will be on at 9pm ET in Missouri, Illinois and western Kentucky.

Currently scheduled dates I will be on Fox59 News at 10:

Saturday, September 10
Saturday, September 17
Sunday, September 18
Saturday, September 24
Sunday, September 25

I am excited for the opportunity to work on-air for Fox59. Having grown up in central Indiana I always watched the weather people on the Indianapolis television stations. So this fulfills a goal I have had since I was 15 years old. That goal, to get on-air as a weatherman in Indianapolis.

I am not a total stranger to WXIN. During the summer of 1997 I interned in the weather department with the station's chief meteorologist, Brian Wilkes. After the internship ended they couldn't get rid of me. I stuck around and helped out in the weather department when storms would move through the state. In many ways I became an apprentice to Brian. Most of my forecasting "know how" has come from him.

After college I was looking for a weather position at a television station. Eventually, I was offered the position at KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. However, there was a three month period between college and my start at KFVS. To fill the space I worked as a sports videographer for Fox59. It was a lot of fun as I was able to cover the Indianapolis Colts, the Indianapolis Indians, the NHRA Bud Shootout, PGA golf, college football and high school football.

Hope you will catch me on the tube over the next couple of weeks!

Viewing Party

2011-09-02T07:38:00.003-05:00

It will be passing overhead this evening and you can see it with your own eyes. Yes, another viewing opportunity for the International Space Station in the Midwest.

Grab the family (especially kids) and head outside and take a look up in to the sky and see it pass overhead.

To see it, use the information for the various locations listed below and go outside. Look in the specific direction just above the horizon. Look for a dot that looks like a star but is slowly moving. It will initially start out dim but will get brighter and brighter. It may even look like an aircraft but it won't have flashing lights.

Tip: When trying to spot it in the sky. It won't be visible a couple minutes ahead of the listed times. It will appear at the time listed. If you see something that you think is it five minutes before, it is either a star, a helicopter, and airplane or a UFO (haha).

Viewing Time:

Cape Girardeau (Southeast Missouri): Starting at 7:57pm (local time) look to the northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 53° above the horizon, and exit to the east-southeast. It will be viewable for five minutes.
Chicago: Starting at 7:58pm (local time) look to the west. It will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 56° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
Columbus (Indiana): Starting at 8:57pm (local time) look to the west-northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 72° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
St. Louis: Starting at 7:57pm (local time) look to the northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 62° above the horizon, and exit to the east-southeast. It will be viewable for five minutes.
Indianapolis: Starting at 8:58pm (local time) look to the west-northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 69° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.

A couple of years ago I took a picture of the space station during one of the viewable fly-overs with my iPhone. It looked like a dot in the picture but when I zoomed in on the picture I could see the shape of it. I am not sure what it would look like with binoculars or a telescope but I imagine you would definitely be able to see the shape.

Information about the international space station.

Currently, there are six crew members aboard the ISS. Three from Russia. Two from the United States. One from Japan.
The space station is as long as a football field (357 feet).
Living space is 12,705 cubic feet.
It weighs 925,627 lbs.
2.3 million lines of computer code to run the space station.
8 solar rays generate 84 kilowatts of electricity.

If you go out and see it, leave a comment and tell me what you thought of it.

Looking at Irene for the Weekeend

2011-08-24T23:44:00.001-05:00

If tonight's run of the GFS were to come true, it could get REALLY interesting for the North Carolina coast, New Jersey, NYC, Long Island, Rhode Island, etc...

However, my gut still tells me Irene moves out to sea.

- Posted from my iPhone

Tropics Heating Up

2011-08-23T09:34:00.006-05:00

You are going to start to hear a lot of talks about the tropics over the next 4-7 days. Hurricane Irene has developed and is expected to get stronger over the next 24 hours.

Currently, Irene is located 55 miles north of the Dominican Republic and is moving WNW at 10mph. As of the 7am CT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100mph.

Here is a look at the visible satellite image from space. The picture was taken at 8:45am CT.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expect Irene to gain strength within in the next 24 hours once it gets away from Hispaniola. In fact, the forecaster writing the morning forecast update said the storm getting away from Hispaniola "should allow for Irene to become a major hurricane within the next 24 hours."

Where will the storm go? That is a good question.

Here is the latest forecast from the NHC.

This is when we start to talk about the "cone of uncertainty". Why do we call it that? That is because we (forecasters) don't know for certain. Forecasters have a pretty good idea of where it is going to go, but this is not a time to be splitting hairs with a forecast. Too many people would be impacted by the storm making a little wobble at the last minute. That is the reason for trying to narrow it down but also keep our options open.

Something else that is good to look at is the plot of various forecast models. This is called a "spaghetti plot".

Each line represents the forecast path of the storm over the duration of the forecast model's run. You can see how there is a variance from model to model. This is why forecasters look at the various runs to see if there is a trend the models are going with. More of a consensus.

I know there is some talk about a direct hit in North Carolina but if you look at this morning's plot of the forecast models it appears that the storm may take a run to the right and move just off the coast of North Carolina.

It will be interesting to watch over the coming days to see how Irene tracks.

Take Cover

2011-08-07T00:47:00.001-05:00

Something I don't understand...

I hear people complain all the time, "It's really bad here. Why isn't there a warning?". Often times the answer is the storm hasn't met severe criteria or we haven't gotten reports of severe weather (58+mph winds, 1"+ hail or tornadoes).

If you feel that it is bad, take cover. Please don't wait for us to tell you there is a warning and then take cover.

There is no reason to get upset if you think the storm is bad and there isn't a warning. It's almost as if people can't seek shelter unless a warning is issued.

Rant over...

- Posted from my iPhone

Coming to you in HD

2011-07-27T15:16:00.014-05:00

Did you notice that KFVS12 and Heartland News is now being broadcast in HD? They debuted the new set and HD equipment today during Heartland News at Noon. The set looks great! Wait until you see all the background changes that can be done with the set.

A lot of work and planning has gone on behind the scenes at the station to get the switch complete. A brand new set had to be designed, built, shipped and installed. Not to mention the HUGE expense of a new set ($$). All new television broadcast equipment had to be ordered, delivered and installed. Some of the new things include HD monitors, new switcher, graphics computers, wiring, lights, etc. I can tell you that the planning has been going on for months and, in some cases, years. Great job to everyone in the Engineering and News departments at KFVS.

I am going to be filling in for weather this Saturday, July 30 on Heartland News at 6pm, Heartland News at 9pm and Heartland News at 10pm. So you will soon get to see me in HD. I apologize in advance for having to see me in HD. It could be a scary!

I have gotten a lot of questions asked if I am coming back to KFVS12. I am not going back to KFVS12 full time. Before I left, I told the station I would be willing fill in for an occasional Saturday shift until they find a person to fill my old position. This is more of an occasional thing, not permanent.

On a side note: I have been a little slow at updating my forecast page. I am still in the process of getting moved in to a place in St. Louis. In fact, I am playing a game of musical hotels until my place is ready. Once I get settled in I will be able to get in to a routine of updating the forecasts on a daily basis.

Here's...... Johnny! 7/22

2011-07-22T11:09:00.003-05:00

You will get to see me make an appearance on Heartland News/KFVS12 tomorrow (Saturday, July 23). I am filling in for the day while the other weather people get a well deserved day off.

You can see me starting with The Weekend Breakfast Show from 6am-7am. Then I'll be on Heartland News at 6pm, Heartland News at 9pm on Fox23 and on Heartland News at 10pm. (All times listed in CT.)

It has been a month since I was last on the air giving the weather forecast so hopefully I haven't forgotten how to do it.

The Heat is On 7/19

2011-07-19T14:57:00.005-05:00

Glen Frey had it right. "The Heat is On". Temperatures have been hovering in the 90°'s and 100° for the last five to six days across the country. Heat warnings, advisories and or watches are in effect for 26 counties in the United States. Right now, it appears that the heat won't be going away anytime soon.

(Click on the image to see a larger view.)

The upper-level high pressure, I mentioned a couple days ago, is slowly progressing eastward across the middle section of the country. Did I mention it was moving slow?? It is going to take several days for it to move east of the Midwest. In the mean time, temperatures will continue to flirt with the 100° mark.

Along with the heat, moisture is abundant in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the moisture isn't in the way of rain. It is mainly in the form of thick, humid air. Currently, there is a broad area of dew points in the middle to upper 70° that stretches from North Daktoa to southwest Ohio. Amazingly, the Minneapolis airport has a recorded dew point of 82°. This makes it the most humid day for Minneapolis since 1891. The heat index at 2pm CT is 110°+ from eastern Iowa through north central Illinois and in north central South Dakota.

High temperatures will continue to climb a couple of degrees each day through the weekend. The one bit of good news is the air won't get much humid than it is now. To get a look at my latest forecast for Cape Girardeau, Indianapolis, Indiana and St. Louis check out "John's Forecast".

The heat can be extremely dangerous. Many don't realize this but heat is the leading weather cause of death in the United States. Often times it isn't the first couple of days in a heat wave that deaths occur, it is usually after several days when the temperatures don't drop much at night. It is a cumulative effect. Unfortunately deaths have already occurred from the heat in the St. Louis area and when dealing with this type of heat, that number is likely to go up. Stay safe. Check on your neighbors. Check on the elderly. Stay cool!

Airfare Price ALERT 7/15

2011-07-15T15:53:00.007-05:00

AIRFARE PRICE ALERT: Delta Airlines has some pretty good deals right now. If you fly from St. Louis, Missouri (STL) to Tampa, Florida (TPA) in September and October you can go for as little as $138 round trip including taxes.

I don't know how long the deal is good for and I don't know if the price is good for other times of the year, i.e. if you look at November or December. I imagine the prices are higher then as you get out of hurricane season and in to the winter season.

I am thinking about taking up the deal and flying down to Tampa for the Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Monday Night football game.

If you know me, you know I LOVE to travel. Not just travel, but find good (and cheap) deals for travel. To me, half the enjoyment of a trip is the planning and purchasing process.

Heat Returns 7/15

2011-07-15T09:36:00.004-05:00

We have had a little break from the oppressive heat over the last couple days. It is still hot out, just not as bad as it was. Plus, we've had a little break from the humidity.

Forecast models are advertising hot air building back east of the Rocky Mountains and central Plains. An area of high pressure will establish itself in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This upper-level high is going to allow for temperatures to likely climb higher than the models are indicating at this time.

Over time, this upper-level high, a.k.a. Hot Dome, will move to the east over Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Indiana.

Here is a look at the European Forecast Agency's computer forecast model's projection for 7pm CT Wednesday, July 20.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

What you are looking at is the atmosphere at 500mb (approximately 18,000 feet). This is the level that I am looking at for the upper-level high. You can see it centered over St. Louis. It is the area inside of the 594 line.

With high pressure, air sinks. As it sinks it compresses. When a gas, in this case air, compresses it heats. This is what usually causes extremely high temperatures in the summer. Since the high will be right over the Midwest, temperatures will likely be high.

Here is a look at forecast temperatures by the European model for the same time frame.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

The image is showing the temperature in Celsius at 850mb or approximately 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere.

Most likely the computer models do not have a good grasp of the higher temperatures just yet. I suspect we'll see the models trending warmer for next week over the weekend.

Highs will likely top out in the upper 90°'s to maybe 100° by mid-week. The timing of the heat obviously depends on how quickly the upper-level high moves in to the Midwest. Regardless, have your air conditioners, water bottles, pools, slip-n-slides and fans ready to go for next week!

Continued Hot

2011-07-12T11:53:00.001-05:00

At 11am CT, heat indices have hit 100° or higher for southern Illinois, western Kentucky and parts of southeast Missouri.

A frontal boundary has stalled out just north of St. Louis. There could be some storm development from the St. Louis area down through southern Illinois later today. I think storms could fire around 4pm CT. A few strong to severe storms will be possible. Main threat: damaging wind (from collapsing storms) and heavy rain due to their slow movement.

- Posted from my iPhone

Its Sweating Time

2011-07-11T15:53:00.006-05:00

It is going to be a story you hear talked about on the national news for a couple of days. It is getting hot outside! Temperatures across the Midwest this afternoon are climbing to the middle 90's to 100° while the heat index climbs above the century mark.

High temperatures of the day:

St. Louis: 100°
Cape Girardeau*: 98°
Marion, IL*: 97°
Paducah*: 97°
Louisville*: 96°
Indianapolis*: 95°
Columbus, IN*: 95°

*Temperatures are indicating hourly observation high temperatures. Official highs for the day will come in later this evening.

Along with the high temperatures, dew points have climbed in to middle 70's (even 80° around Louisville). This is creating heat indices (the feel like temperature) in the 110°-115° range across much of the Midwest. Remember that the dew point is a specific measure of the moisture in the air. Dew point is much more accurate at depicting how humid it is compared to the relative humidity. I know, it sounds weird but its true.

A cold front will slowly move south across the Midwest Tuesday. It should allow for some slightly cooler, less humid air to move in to central Indiana and the St. Louis metro area. However, places like southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and places further south may see a slight increase in temperatures tomorrow as the air is compressed along the front. Typically, air just along and ahead of the front will get warmer than forecast models indicate.

Instant Watch & Warning Information

2011-07-04T13:12:00.007-05:00

I am in the process of setting up a system so you can receive severe weather watches and warnings. You can access the watches and warnings via Twitter of Facebook. Most importantly, the service will be FREE of charge.

Not all counties will be available. Initially, I am going to start with a smaller number of higher populated counties from southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky. I am also going to include a couple counties from the St. Louis area and central Indiana.

Counties Included:

Illinois: Jackson, Saline, Williamson
Indiana: Bartholomew, Brown, Hamilton, Marion
Kentucky: Calloway, Graves, McCracken
Missouri: Butler, Cape Girardeau, Scott, Madison, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Perry, Scott, Ripley, St. Charles, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis, St. Louis (city)

If there are counties that you would like for me to include, please leave a comment and suggest the county/state.

To get alerts via Facebook. In order to get the watches and warnings you need to like my "John Dissauer" fan page. The alerts will then show up in your Facebook Newsfeed as soon as they are sent out.

To get alerts via Twitter. Follow @johnwxalert to have the watches and warnings instantly sent over Twitter.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588

2011-07-03T13:21:00.004-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588 for eastern Missouri and south central Illinois. The watch is in effect until 8:00pm CT Sunday.

A few of the communities included in the watch include: Missouri: Chesterfield, Columbua, Farmington, O'Fallon, St. Louis, Ste. Genevieve; Illinois: Belleville, Centralia, Du Quoin, Edwardsville, Effingham, Flora and Mt. Vernon.

Thunderstorms are beginning to flare up in the watch area along a weak front. Heating of the day is allowing the atmosphere to become unstable. Combine the instability and a lifting mechanism (the front) and you can get several strong thunderstorms.

The main severe weather threat will be hail. The storms will also be capable of producing heavy downpours. A few of the thunderstorms could produce some strong winds as storms collapse.

The thunderstorms are expected to move east at 25-30 mph.

Remember that you can check out the radar and the latest warnings by using the tabs at the top of my page.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #549

2011-06-25T13:14:00.001-05:00

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of southeast/east Missouri and southern Illinois.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8pm CT Saturday.

Storms are expected to move east at approximately 40mph. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat.

Remember that you can look at the radar (along with watches and warnings) anytime by clicking on the "Radar" tab at the top of the page.

- Posted from my iPhone

Saying Goodbye

2011-06-22T23:53:00.008-05:00

It is over. I am no longer a meteorologist at KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Today was my final day on-air. My last newscast was Heartland News at Noon. I know some of you may not have been able to watch so here is a little bit of the ending of the show.

Thank you Lauren Keith for not making it too sad.

My former weekend co-workers also gave me a surprise Sunday night on the air. I didn't expect them to put a little piece together of many of my newsroom co-workers. The people in the video (in order): Christy Hendricks (Internet Content Director, Kathy Sweeney (News Anchor), Jeff Cunningham (News Anchor), Mike Smythe (General Manager) and Crystal Britt (Weekend News Anchor).

Again, thank you to everyone for watching over the years. I hope this doesn't mean you will stop checking out my blog and keeping up with the weather.

4,277 Days Ago

2011-06-22T00:16:00.022-05:00

Hard to believe that today is the day. My last day at KFVS-TV.

My first day at KFVS was October 6, 1999. I started as a 24-year old out of college ready to forecast my way through winter and spring storms. Who would have thought that I endured my way through tornadoes, hail, flooding, flash flooding, ice storms, snow storms, heat waves and blizzards?! I have seen a lot during my time at KFVS.

If you read my blog much you probably know I like numbers. Here's a number for you... 4,277. That is the number of days I worked as an employee of KFVS. That is 32.2% of my life!

I have enjoyed my time at KFVS. There is a rich history at the station. Yes, the television building and transmitter have stood for many years but it is really the employees of KFVS that make it what it was in the past and what it is today. What it is today is much more than when I started.

When I first arrived at KFVS it was just a television station. Now it operates three television stations (KFVS, WQWQ - The Heartland's CW, The StormTeam Weather Network), three websites (kfvs12.com, mykfvs.com and hyper-local county-by-county microsites), four iTunes video feeds and soon to be, two mobile applications. It is amazing the amount of content that is being pushed out of the building in downtown Cape Girardeau.

There are a few people I need to thank. A special "thank you" to Samantha Farris for keeping me grounded and making my time in Cape Girardeau enjoyable. You helped make this time go by quickly. I can't thank you enough!

Thank you Chad Fryman for being a good friend, letting me stay at your place until I found an apartment and introducing me to the news director that eventually hired me.

I can't thank everyone I have worked with over the years, but there are a few I would like to give a special "thank you" to all of the current and former members of the Heartland StormTeam (Bob Reeves, Brian Alworth, Jordan McCollum, Jason Lindsey and Laura Wibbenmeyer). I have spent many, many, many hours working besides the above mentioned group. I am going to have fond memories of sitting in the Weather Center with Bob. Not so much talking weather but talking about all kinds of topics under the sun.

I would also like to thank you, the viewers, for letting me in to your homes every night, afternoon and morning. Sorry for the times I cut off the end of your favorite television show, golf tournament or basketball games. I really didn't intend to wipe out the ending.

Everyone in the "Heartland" (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas) has been very welcoming to me since I arrived and I truly appreciate that.

Although my time at KFVS is over, I am not finished. I am going to continue this blog. I will continue to forecast weather for the KFVS viewing area, especially during big storms. I am planning on going back to providing live streaming coverage of storms, especially at night. You are also likely to see a few new features as well over time.

Storms Possible Later Today

2011-06-21T01:51:00.001-05:00

Eyes are looking at the possibility for severe weather later this evening and again Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has the KFVS viewing area, along with a large part of the midwest, in a "Slight Risk" area for severe weather through 7am CT Wednesday.

A surface low pressure system is forecast to move east across the Mississippi River valley over the next 48-72 hours.

The surface low should stay north of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois so that should stay out of play. However, a cold front will be passing through and that will be the lifting mechanism to spark thunderstorms.

The nose of a jet streak will be rounding the upper-level low. The nose of the jet stream will also aide in lifting parcels of air.

All of the above combined with surface moisture (dew points) in the 70°'s and we have the potential for some strong storms.

Right now it appears that the main threat Tuesday evening will be from discreet cells. These could produce large hail and damaging winds.

The cold front should bring a thin line of strong thunderstorms through the area after midnight Wednesday morning. Damaging wind will be the main threat with the line.

Interest Peeked for Tuesday

2011-06-20T06:39:00.001-05:00

Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning still has my attention. The Storm Prediction Center has southeast Missouri and southern Illinois in a "Slight Risk" area for severe weather for that time period.

The surface low is a little further north than I'd like for severe storms but the middle and upper level winds aren't looking too bad for late June. Stay tuned...

- Posted from my iPhone

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #477

2011-06-15T01:45:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #477. The watch is in effect until 8am CT Wednesday.

The watch covers parts of souther Missouri, northern Arkansas and parts of southwest Illinois.

The main threat will be damaging wind. Hails is a secondary threat.

Storms are expected to move east at 40mph.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #472

2011-06-13T10:10:00.003-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #472 for parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. The watch is in effect until 4:00pm CT.

On the air last night I mentioned the "if" forecasting. "If" a complex develops over Missouri it could dive south and move through parts of the KFVS viewing area. Early this morning a complex developed over central Missouri and is now diving south.

The main threat from the storms will be hail and damaging wind.

Don't forget you can check out the radar by clicking the "Radar" link at the top of my site.

A "Little" Relief

2011-06-11T22:08:00.004-05:00

Finally, it looks like we will get a little relief from the heat and the humidity.

A cold front is passing through the KFVS viewing area this evening. At 9pm, the front was halfway through the area. The front should be through by morning. You will notice the front has passed as winds will shift around to the northwest/north.

The front is going to allow for some drier air to filter in from the north on the surface winds. This will help drop dew points in to the upper 50's and 60's.

The dew point is a key number to look at. It is a measure of the moisture in the air. With dew points under 60 degrees it feels rather comfortable. If the dew point goes over 60 degrees it starts to feel uncomfortable.

Over the last two weeks we have had dew points in the upper 60's and even lower 70's. That is air typically we have in place by late July and early August.

Be sure to enjoy the drier air. Winds will begin to shift back around to the south by Monday and that will bring moisture back to the area. This means the humidity will go back up, as well the temperatures.

Another interesting note about the cold front... I'm forecasting a high temperature around 84 degrees for Cape Girardeau. If we hit 84, this will likely be the first time in 16 days that we have been at or below normal. I for one wouldn't mind some below normal temperatures.

Winds of Change

2011-06-06T22:25:00.010-05:00

I have been offered an exciting opportunity to work for a Fortune 500 company and I have accepted the position. This means I have decided to semi-retire from the television weather business. My last day at KFVS-TV will be Wednesday, June 22.

This decision has been extremely difficult to make and I would be lying if I said I would not miss the television business. I have been involved in television for 22 years and have thoroughly enjoyed it.

I have been fortunate to work at great place like KFVS-TV. I started my tenure at the CBS affiliate in Cape Girardeau, Missouri October 6, 1999. Who would have thought that a young, 24-year old right out of college would have stayed around for almost 12 years?!

I am also going to miss the weather side of television. I have looked at my meteorology career as just not a job, but as a passion and I hope it has come across that way. I have spent countless hours looking over data, putting together forecasts and presenting the forecast on-air and online. It has been fun. However, diving headfirst in to my career has also meant missing time with family and friends over the last 11+ years and I am looking forward to having “normal” hours.

Now, don’t fret. I am not completely leaving weather. I am going to continue my blog, “New at Dis Hour”, and my website. To access it, you will need to visit www.dissauer.com. I will continue to forecast the weather for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky, especially when it comes to severe weather and winter storms. I will also be branching out and forecasting for the St. Louis metro area, central Indiana and other parts of the Midwest (including live streaming weather coverage during storms). There will be more announced later.

I am still going to be around on KFVS for a few weeks and who knows, maybe somewhere down the road you will see me on your television on the air telling you how many feet of snow will fall.

Storms Today? 6/5

2011-06-05T01:32:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center includes all of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and parts of southeast Missouri in a "Slight Risk" of severe weather through 7am ET Monday.

Also included is the St. Louis metro area along with southwest Indiana.

According to SPC, the main threat is damaging winds.

Today (Sunday) Is my first day back from vacation. To be honest, I haven't looked at much data concerning Sunday. Most likely we could see some pop-up storms in the sweltering heat.

- Posted from my iPhone

Looking Back at Yesterday 5/26

2011-05-26T11:55:00.005-05:00

What an amazing day yesterday. The Storm Prediction Center received 962 reports of severe weather from across the country. 82 reports of tornadoes. 396 reports of large hail. 484 reports of high winds.

I have several things things that I am happy about. In no particular order:

1) The forecast panned out just about how I expected it. The time frame forecast was pretty good. I was saying between 1pm and 7pm/8pm for the KFVS viewing area. In reality, I believe the storms started firing up over western Reynolds County, Missouri around 2:30pm. The worst of the storms was out of the KFVS viewing area around 8pm. All modes of severe weather happened. Strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

The forecast for Indiana worked out pretty well. I was calling for 4pm to 11pm. Most of the storms occurred during that time. A couple of tornadoes, hail and damaging wind hit central and south central Indiana.

2) After all of the deaths and destruction to our west Sunday and again Tuesday, I am EXTREMELY happy to say we got through yesterday without ANY deaths or major injuries. This is largely because you kept alert to the weather situation. You planned ahead. Thank you for being proactive and heeding warnings!

I have had some question the "over-hyping" of yesterday's storms. Both leading up to the storms and during the storms. I want to say I do not think we over-hyped the dangerous weather situation leading up to yesterday or during the event itself.

We were playing up the severe weather possibilities because we believed it could get bad. You will not hear me, on tv or online, talking up a storm that I do not believe could be a big deal.

We (meteorologists, KFVS-TV and the National Weather Service) were very concerned about what could happen yesterday. It was a very serious situation. I know for one, I did not want to have to hear about deaths occurring in our viewing area. This may sound weird, but I take that very personally. I never want to see anyone die, but especially when it happens on my watch.

Here are a couple of examples as to why we "hyped" the storms yesterday.

This is video of the tornado that moved through Greenville, Missouri:

This is a video of a tornado that moved through Silva, Missouri. The video was taken from Patterson, Missouri:

And here is a picture of the tornado that moved through Ellsinore, Missouri.

From the little bit of video I looked at last night, I am guessing it will be rated an EF-3. The National Weather Service is out in Carter County today surveying the damage and they will have their assessments out over the coming days.

The above image and videos should explain why we do what we do. Everyone in the weather community wants to keep people safe. We want to keep people alive.

"High Risk" for Today 5/25

2011-05-25T08:09:00.001-05:00

As expected, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of the "Moderate Risk" area to a rare "High Risk" in their latest Day 1 Outlook. The outlook covers the time period from now through 7am Thursday.

Places especially in the "High Risk" and "Moderate Risk" should pay close attention to the weather today/tonight.

I still think the window for the "big show" in the KFVS viewing area is from 1pm through 7pm or 8pm.

The window for central Indiana is 4pm to 11pm.

All severe weather types will be possible with storms that develop including large, long tracked tornadoes and very large haul.

Take a couple of minutes and think about what you will do or where you should go if you are at work when a Tornado Warning is issued for your location. Also, make sure you have a way to be alerted to warnings.

We've had some horrible weather damage to our west the last couple of days and I definitely do not want to see that happen here. Let's keep our record clean!

Upgrade Likely 5/25

2011-05-25T07:43:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center is likely to upgrade much of the KFVS viewing area from a "Moderate Risk" to a "High Risk" of severe weather for later today and tonight.

The new Day 1 Outlook is due out around 8:00am CT.

- Posted from my iPhone

6:25am Weather Update

2011-05-25T06:35:00.001-05:00

Everything seems to be intact with the going forecast. There are a few storms moving just to the north and northwest of the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas). Most of this activity should remain over far northern counties of the area.

Right now we have a bit of a protective shield that has moved in to the area. The shield has moved in from down in Tennessee and Arkansas. The shield I am talking about is the "cap".

The cap is indicated in the blue shaded area in the above map. Basically, it is warm air aloft that is in place a few thousand feet in the air. The warm air limits vertical development of the storms/clouds.

In order to break the cap we need something to come along and upset the warm air aloft. That should happen a little later as the nose of a strong jet stream moves in from the southwest. Computer models have been suggesting that could happen between 12pm and 2pm. Once that happens we will start to see thunderstorms go up quickly.

The reason storms will go up quickly is due to the amount of instability we will have in place. We already have instability overhead. Look at the map above. The solid red lines indicates the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in place. The higher the number, the higher the instability. Give it a few hours to "percolate" and those should go up to the 3,000 range.

- Posted from my iPhone

1:00am Weather Update 5/25

2011-05-25T01:15:00.001-05:00

I've been eyeing the south central Illinois area for the "prime spot" for Wednesday's storms. Tonight's 0z computer model data keeps my interest peeked for that area for early Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps all of the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas) in a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather Wednesday.

The SPC forecasters have shifted the moderate risk area slightly north and northeast from Tuesday's forecasts.

I am still holding pretty steady with what I mentioned in my previous post. All modes of severe weather (hail, wind an tornadoes) will be possible. I still think the general time frame of the "main event" will be from 1pm until 7pm or 8pm.

I need some sleep. It's likely to be a busy day tomorrow.

- Posted from my iPhone

All Eyes Focused on Wednesday 5/24

2011-05-24T12:39:00.005-05:00

There has been a lot of severe weather around the region in the last couple of days and the biggest headline has been the Joplin, Missouri tornado. As of the time I am writing this, 117 people have been killed. My thoughts go out to the people of Joplin.

Somehow the national media (CNN, Associated Press, etc) have been calling this the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. That is incorrect. The deadliest tornado in U.S. history was the 1925 Tri-State tornado which killed 695 people. It killed 234 people in Murphysboro, Illinois. The tornado was on the ground for 219 miles and produced 3.5 hours of continuous destruction. The National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky has a nice web page with additional information on the Tri-State Tornado.

The correct information regarding the Joplin tornado is it is currently tied for #8 all time in deadliest tornadoes in U.S. history. It is also the deadliest tornado since 1947.

Now, regarding the Wednesday severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has a large swath of the midwest in a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather from 7am Wednesday through 7am Thursday.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

The Moderate Risk area includes all of the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas).

Here is a wider view of the outlook for 7am Wednesday - 7am Thursday. The "Moderate Risk" area includes places like Indianapolis, Columbus (IN), Bloomington (IN), Evansville.

(Click the image to see a larger version.)

There are a lot of elements in play for tomorrow. We've got a surface low that will be tracking through Missouri. We've got a strong jet stream that is going to rotate through bringing strong winds aloft. Computer models are also suggesting there will be diverging winds as you go higher in the atmosphere. (The diverging winds are something I pay special attention to when it comes to determining a storm chase forecast.)

All modes of severe weather will be possible tomorrow. The main threat appears to be tornadoes, damaging wind and large hail. In particular, some of the tornadoes could be strong and long-tracked meaning they have the potential to stay on the ground for a while.

The main time frame I am most concerned about is from 1pm CT through 8pm CT in the KFVS viewing area. Times will be a little later for central Indiana (maybe 4pm ET to 11pm ET).

Also, there will likely be some morning storms. These will be the "leftovers" from storms that develop in Oklahoma, Kansas and western Missouri this afternoon/evening.

I know everyone's senses are heightened after we went through in April and the Joplin tornado. What I said above is not meant to scare anyone. It is meant to present information, as I see it, so you can stay informed. It is important to know what could be coming.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if you do not have a NOAA weather radio PLEASE pick one up. They really can be lifesavers. I strongly believe that every home, business and school should have one. They are just as important as smoke detectors.

8am Weather Update 5/21

2011-05-21T08:31:00.001-05:00

I have had rain in the weekend forecast all week. I don't think it's going to be a widespread wash out. There will be periods of dry and then a period or two of rain.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas in a "Slight Risk" are for severe thunderstorms.

The main threat appears to be wind.

SPC also has the area in a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms 7am Sunday through 7am Monday.

We are going to get in to an unsettled weather pattern for the next several days.

As of right now, I still think Memorial Day weekend is looking fine weather wise. *That is subject to change. Haha

I am back in this afternoon. Hopefully you won't have to see me on tv too much interrupting programs.

- Posted from my iPhone

Wet Pattern Shaping Up Again 5/18

2011-05-18T12:40:00.003-05:00

Yes, I'm still alive. It has been a little while since I last updated the site. I have been taking a slight breather after all the craziness in April.

I wanted to get out in front of something that looks to be coming our way. I have been mentioning on the air for the last couple of days that we could be turning back in to a wet pattern again. Computer forecast models are continuing to indicate that. Generally speaking, the pattern shift would begin late Friday night or more likely Saturday and continue through Thursday.

Forecast models are hinting at anywhere from 2" to as much as 4.5" of rain Saturday through Wednesday. Oftentimes the models have a hard time of narrowing down the specifics of "how much" will fall but the key is looking for trends in the forecast models. If there is an indication of 4" of rain, it peeks my interest.

I'm not saying we are going to see what we had in April. I don't think we'll see that again anytime soon. However, everyone is still a little on edge from all of the rain and the ground still remains fairly saturated. I can't imagine 4" of rain, if we get that, will help that situation.

The good news: As of right now Memorial Day Weekend looks to be dry.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #298

2011-05-13T12:41:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #298 for parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas.

The watch is in effect until 7:00pm CT Friday evening.

The main threat from thunderstorms will be large hail and some gusty winds.

- Posted from my iPhone

7:00am Weather Update 5/13

2011-05-13T11:59:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center keeps the majority of the KFVS viewing area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather through 7am Saturday. Main risk is large hail.

- Posted from my iPhone

11:35pm Weather Update 4/30

2011-04-30T23:58:00.001-05:00

9:30am Weather Update 4/25

2011-04-25T09:33:00.001-05:00

A lot going on today and I'm operating on 4 hours of sleep so this will be quick.

The SPC has taken the KFVS viewing are out of the "Moderate Risk" for severe weather later today. The entire area remains in a "Slight Risk" through 7am Tuesday.

Regardless, we are still anticipating strong to severe storms to develop by late afternoon/evening.

Periods of heavy rain will also be possible as we go through the day.

If you live in low lying areas prone to flooding, start thinning about where you go if the water starts to rise. Evacuations are already happening across the area and I have a feeling we'll see more evacuations happening over the days to come.

Also, if you live near the Mississippi River and Ohio River and occasionally have to deal with rising waters, PLEASE pay attention to river forecasts. We are likely to have significant to historic river flooding along the two rivers by the end of the week and lasting through the beginning of May.

- Posted from my iPhone

Severe Storms Later Today 4/25

2011-04-25T03:14:00.001-05:00

You should be getting used to the drill by now. Once again there is a decent chance for severe thunderstorms across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas (the KFVS viewing area) Monday afternoon and night.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire KFVS viewing area in a "Slight Risk" and parts of southeast Missouri and Arkansas in a "Moderate Risk" in thei latest Day 1 Outlook. The outlook is valid through 7am Tuesday.

I have a feeling we will see a potent line of thunderstorms develop over western Arkansas and southwest Missouri by mid to late afternoon. This line will move eastward and move in to the KFVS viewing area by evening.

The main threat from the storms will be large hail, strong tornadoes and heavy rain.

- Posted from my iPhone

NWS News Conference 4/24

2011-04-24T19:30:00.002-05:00

The National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky held a news conference earlier this evening concerning the flooding currently taking place, the possibility of more severe weather and the upcoming historic river flooding. You can listen to the news conference below.

Severe Weather Potential 4/24

2011-04-24T12:42:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issues a Tornado Watch that is in effect until 7:00pm CT Sunday evening.

The watch is for northern and northeast Arkansas. The watch does not include any counties in southeast Missouri, for now.

There is the potential for severe weather all across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. The above mentioned area is included in a "Slight Risk" area by the SPC through 7am Monday.

Monday night has my interest peaked. A potential severe weather outbreak looks possible over southeast Missouri and Arkansas.

The SPC already has parts of the KFVS viewing area included in a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather 7am Monday - 7am Tuesday. The rest of the viewing area is included in a "Slight Risk". Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds (along with heavy rain) is all possible Monday night.

- Posted from my iPhone

Here We Go Again 4/24

2011-04-24T12:19:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated there is a 60% chance they will be issuing a Tornado Watch within the next hour or two for parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Areas likely included in the watch will be Poplar Bluff, Dexter, Kennett and Doniphan.

- Posted from my iPhone

Flooding Perspective 4/23

2011-04-23T13:06:00.003-05:00

I mentioned yesterday that the hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky said that river levels along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers could exceed the 1995 flood (Cape Girardeau, Missouri) and the 1997 flood (Cairo, Illinois and Paducah, Kentucky).

To put this in perspective I went back and took a look at 1995. The 1995 flood ranks only second behind the historic 1993 flood in Cape Girardeau. In 1995, the water stage reached 47 feet. In 1993, the water stage reached 48.49 feet.

I am not saying that we are going to see flooding like 1993, but it should be watched closely. It is never good when you hear hydrologists using the term "historical" in their conversations.

Not Over Yet 4/23

2011-04-23T11:04:00.005-05:00

A busy night in the weather department last night. I am sure by now you have also heard of the significant damage to the west and northwest side of St. Louis.

We are not out of the woods yet. A front has draped across the area and is not going to move much for the next several days. This is going to allow for an almost daily chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and extremely heavy rain.

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northwest Tennessee, western Kentucky and northeast Arkansas in a "Slight Risk" area for severe storms through 7am Sunday.

(Click image to see larger version.)

The main threat today will be large hail and heavy rain.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps the KFVS viewing area in a "Slight Risk" area for Sunday and again Monday. In other words, don't let your guard down.

I talked about the heavy rain threat on yesterday's post. New data coming out is indicating the heavy rain threat could be worse.

Last night's storms dropped anywhere from 0.25" to over 3" of rain across the region. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has updated their rainfall forecast for the next five days. The forecast covers today through Wednesday.

(Click image to see larger version.)

Unfortunately, they have increased their numbers for the middle Mississippi River Valley and the Ohio River Valley. The maximum amount indicated in their forecast is 10.1" pinpointed over southern Illinois. Generally around the KFVS viewing area the forecast is calling for 6" to 10" of rain. This does not bode well for water levels along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers.

There could also be periods of flash flooding around the region as the ground continues to saturate. Unfortunately, flooding contributes to more than 100 deaths across the United States every year. For some reason people think they can cross the water and they end up getting swept away. I don't want to see that happen around here. I can't stress this enough. If you see water over roadways, DO NOT CROSS or DRIVE THROUGH IT. "Turn Around. Don't Drown."

Storms = Flooding 4/22

2011-04-22T14:18:00.004-05:00

I've been saying for the last week that we are in a prolonged period of active weather for the Midwest and the KFVS viewing area. The usual attention getter is thunderstorms with hail, wind and tornadoes and we've been seeing all of those things. But when you get prolonged periods of storms, heavy rain can often times be a bigger concern.

A front is going to stall out over the area and allow almost daily chances for rain over the next 5-6 days. The Hydrometeorolical Prediction Center (HPC) has put out their new rainfall projection for the next five day.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

The above numbers show what they are expecting for today through Tuesday.

To put it in context, I was on a conference call with the National Weather Service in Paducah today and the service hydrologist said that if the expected rain does happen the flooding would exceed the following levels:

It would exceed the 1995 flood in Cape Girardeau, Missouri.
It would exceed the 1997 flood in Cairo, Illinois.
It would exceed the 1997 flood in Paducah, Kentucky.

Something interesting to note. The hydrologist said this will be the first time in over 20 years that both the Ohio River and the Mississippi River will be flooding at these levels at the same time.

Also a heads up for later today and tonight. The KFVS viewing area is in a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms through 7am Saturday morning. Parts of southeast Missouri are also included in a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather during the same time period. It appears that large hail will be the main threat for most of the area. There is a higher chance of tornadoes in southern Missouri.

Just a reminder... If there is water covering roadways, DO NOT cross them! As the National Weather Service says, "Turn around. Don't drown."

12:40pm Weather Update 4/19

2011-04-19T12:40:00.000-05:00